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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-24-02Open

Jordanian authorities announce at least one arrest or the killing of a suspect in the 23 October Karak church attack by 7 November 2026.

National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastJordan
Issued No. 116 · 24 Oct 26  ·  Due 7 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 70% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%24 Oct 26 — 70% (No. 116): Opening call26 Oct 26 — 97% (No. 118): Jordan's state news agency Petra reports security forces captured three people involved in the Karak church attack.todaydue 7 Nov 2697%24 Oct 26

The record since

  • 26 Oct 26 No. 118 · revised to 97%
    Jordan's state news agency Petra reports security forces captured three people involved in the Karak church attack.

What would overturn it

A claim of responsibility from a group operating abroad would signal a harder case.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 7 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Jordan: likely arrest or killed suspect announced by 7 November.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-24-02 — recorded 24 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-24-02.html