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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-24-04Open

WHO declares the DR Congo Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak over by 30 June 2027.

National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastDR CongoUganda
Issued No. 116 · 24 Oct 26  ·  Due 30 Jun 27  ·  Opening call 30% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%24 Oct 26 — 30% (No. 116): Opening calltodaydue 30 Jun 2730%24 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

The outbreak would need 42 days with no new cases across eight provinces; a vaccine candidate entering field use would raise the odds.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 30 Jun 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Ebola: unlikely WHO declares the outbreak over by 30 June 2027.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-24-04 — recorded 24 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-24-04.html