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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-25-01Open

U.S. forces strike targets on Iranian territory, as announced by the White House, CENTCOM or the Pentagon, by 2026-11-15.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States
Issued No. 117 · 25 Oct 26  ·  Due 15 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 45% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%25 Oct 26 — 45% (No. 117): Opening calltodaydue 15 Nov 2645%25 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A confirmed U.S. acceptance of a Hormuz-for-blockade sequence would overturn it; a reported strike order after the midterms would raise it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 15 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Iran: roughly even odds U.S. forces strike Iranian territory by 15 November.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-25-01 — recorded 25 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-25-01.html