The Cursus Publicus

Intelligence from the Global Frontier

← The Tabularium · Editions

The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-25-02Open

The Kenya Red Cross, UNHCR or OCHA reports at least 25,000 people displaced from Ethiopia into Kenya's Moyale area by 2026-11-08.

Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastEthiopiaKenya
Issued No. 117 · 25 Oct 26  ·  Due 8 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%25 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 117): Opening calltodaydue 8 Nov 2650%25 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A verified local truce and returns across the border would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 8 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Moyale: roughly even chance displacement into Kenya reaches 25,000 by 8 November.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-25-02 — recorded 25 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-25-02.html