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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-25-03Open

The UK and EU sign a legally binding youth experience or youth mobility agreement by 2027-06-30.

PartnershipsEuropeUnited KingdomEuropean Union
Issued No. 117 · 25 Oct 26  ·  Due 30 Jun 27  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%25 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 117): Opening calltodaydue 30 Jun 2750%25 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A collapse of the 20 November Brussels summit track would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 30 Jun 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

UK-EU: roughly even chance of a signed youth mobility agreement by 30 June 2027.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-25-03 — recorded 25 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-25-03.html