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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-26-01Open

Venezuela's government or electoral authority publicly announces a date for a presidential election by 2026-12-31.

PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanVenezuela
Issued No. 118 · 26 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Dec 26  ·  Opening call 20% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%26 Oct 26 — 20% (No. 118): Opening calltodaydue 31 Dec 2620%26 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A public timetable from the acting government, or the arrest of Machado, would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Venezuela: unlikely that an election date is announced by 31 December.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-26-01 — recorded 26 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-26-01.html