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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-26-02Open

A Joint Maritime Information Center advisory published by 2026-11-15 reports fewer than 300 vessels waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz.

Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited Arab EmiratesOman
Issued No. 118 · 26 Oct 26  ·  Due 15 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 25% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%26 Oct 26 — 25% (No. 118): Opening calltodaydue 15 Nov 2625%26 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A reported run of transits that clears the queue would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 15 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Hormuz: unlikely that the vessel queue falls below 300 by 15 November.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-26-02 — recorded 26 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-26-02.html