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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-26-04Open

Independent satellite-imagery analysis published by 2027-09-30 shows a paved, complete runway on Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands.

National SecurityAsia / PacificChina
Issued No. 118 · 26 Oct 26  ·  Due 30 Sep 27  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%26 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 118): Opening calltodaydue 30 Sep 2750%26 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A reported halt in construction would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 30 Sep 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Paracels: roughly even chance a complete runway is shown by 30 September 2027.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-26-04 — recorded 26 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-26-04.html