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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-27-03Open

Serbia's National Assembly elects a prime minister by 2026-12-31.

PartnershipsEuropeSerbia
Issued No. 119 · 27 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Dec 26  ·  Opening call 55% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%27 Oct 26 — 55% (No. 119): Opening calltodaydue 31 Dec 2655%27 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A failed investiture vote that triggers a fresh parliamentary election would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Dec 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Serbia: roughly even chance that parliament elects a prime minister by 31 December.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-27-03 — recorded 27 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-27-03.html