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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-27-04Open

The EU and Senegal sign a Frontex status agreement by 2027-12-31, as published by the European Commission or the Official Journal.

Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEuropean UnionSenegal
Issued No. 119 · 27 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Dec 27  ·  Opening call 30% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%27 Oct 26 — 30% (No. 119): Opening calltodaydue 31 Dec 2730%27 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A signed text published by the Commission would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Dec 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Frontex: unlikely that the EU and Senegal sign a status agreement by 31 December 2027.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-27-04 — recorded 27 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-27-04.html