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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-28-02Open

Serbia's Interior Ministry announces that the national terror threat level has been lowered from red by 2026-11-14.

National SecurityEuropeSerbia
Issued No. 120 · 28 Oct 26  ·  Due 14 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 55% — likely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%28 Oct 26 — 55% (No. 120): Opening calltodaydue 14 Nov 2655%28 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What would overturn it

A second attack or an arrest that reveals a network would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 14 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Serbia: likely that the terror threat level is lowered from red by 14 November.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-28-02 — recorded 28 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-28-02.html