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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-29-01Open

UNHCR or Kenyan authorities report cumulative arrivals in Kenya from the Moyale fighting above 70,000 by 2026-11-12.

Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastEthiopiaKenya
Issued No. 121 · 29 Oct 26  ·  Due 12 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%29 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 121): Opening calldue 12 Nov 2650%29 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What it informs

Reception and onward-movement screening workload in northern Kenya.

What would overturn it

A fall in daily arrivals or a ceasefire in Moyale would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 12 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Ethiopia: roughly even chance that more than 70,000 arrivals in Kenya are reported by 12 November.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-29-01 — recorded 29 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-29-01.html