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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-29-02Open

Scheduled commercial flights resume at Aden airport by 2026-11-05, as reported by Yemeni transport officials or a carrier.

National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia
Issued No. 121 · 29 Oct 26  ·  Due 5 Nov 26  ·  Opening call 50% — roughly even

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%29 Oct 26 — 50% (No. 121): Opening calldue 5 Nov 2650%29 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What it informs

Aviation routing and the land-route pressure on travellers.

What would overturn it

Another strike on the airport would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 5 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

Yemen: roughly even chance that commercial flights resume at Aden airport by 5 November.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-29-02 — recorded 29 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-29-02.html