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The Tabularium · Call 2026-10-29-04Open

People are physically transferred to a third-country EU return hub by 2027-12-31.

Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastRwandaGermanyNetherlands
Issued No. 121 · 29 Oct 26  ·  Due 31 Dec 27  ·  Opening call 30% — unlikely

The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.

The trajectory

The call stands at its probability until revised; each dot is a recorded reading.0%50%100%29 Oct 26 — 30% (No. 121): Opening calldue 31 Dec 2730%29 Oct 26

The record since

The call stands as issued — no revisions.

What it informs

Long-run deterrence picture for rejected claimants.

What would overturn it

Signed host-country text with a 2027 transfer date would overturn it.

The verdict

Open  Resolves by 31 Dec 27 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.

As logged at issue

EU return hub: unlikely that people have been physically transferred to a third-country hub by 31 December 2027.

Cite this call

The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-29-04 — recorded 29 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-29-04.html