APHIS announces a second New World screwworm detection in Arizona (a new, separate case outside the Cochise County dog case) by 2026-11-26, as shown on its news page.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What it informs
Livestock and pet inspection posture at Arizona ports of entry, including Douglas.
What would overturn it
A quiet APHIS page through November, or trapping with no further finds, would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 26 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
United States: unlikely, about one in three, that APHIS confirms a second separate Arizona screwworm case by 26 November.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-29-c01 — recorded 29 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-29-c01.html