ECDC or WHO reports more than 11,000 cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases in DR Congo by 2026-11-12.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What it informs
Whether the 21-day DR Congo boarding ban and the 3 November attestation stay in force at ports of entry.
What would overturn it
Weekly confirmed counts falling below about 50 a day would overturn it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 12 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
DR Congo: likely that cumulative confirmed cases pass 11,000 by 12 November, from 10,193 on 28 October at roughly 70 a day.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-29-c02 — recorded 29 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-29-c02.html