A country not yet on the outbreak list (beyond DR Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Nigeria and France) reports a locally detected confirmed Bundibugyo case, not a medical evacuation, by 2026-11-26, per WHO or that country's health ministry.
The wording, the opening probability, and the counter-signal below were fixed when this call was published. Updates revise the reading — never the record: the verdict is graded against the opening call.
The trajectory
The record since
The call stands as issued — no revisions.
What it informs
Whether designated-airport enhanced screening needs widening beyond Uganda and South Sudan.
What would overturn it
A confirmed case in a neighbour with an air link to Kampala or Nairobi would settle it.
The verdict
Open Resolves by 26 Nov 26 — graded at the weekly Reckoning against the criteria above, and recorded here.
As logged at issue
Africa: unlikely, about one in seven, that a new country reports a locally detected Bundibugyo case by 26 November.
Cite this call
The Cursus Publicus, Call 2026-10-29-c03 — recorded 29 Oct 26. https://archive.cursuspublic.us/calls/2026-10-29-c03.html