|
THE CURSUS PUBLICUS
CONTAGIA
The week’s chemical & biological threats at the border · 29 October 2026
|
|
|
This week
Screwworm reaches Arizona; Ebola passes 10,000 cases · 1 board row new, 3 steady · 1 full outbreak entry, 3 noted, 3 forecasts
|
|
|
Bottom Line
|
|
Screwworm is now in Arizona. On 28 October USDA confirmed the first New World screwworm detection in the state, in a dog in Cochise County, a week after the first U.S. wildlife case (an elk in Pecos County, Texas). The Douglas port, also in Cochise County, reopened to Mexican cattle in August; we could not confirm its status this week. What changed: this is the first issue of Contagia, so there is no prior week to compare. The Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in DR Congo passed 10,000 confirmed cases (10,193 on 28 October, per ECDC), with 9 cases in Kenya and 1 in Nigeria, both linked to travel through Uganda. Watch: the U.S. boarding ban on anyone in DR Congo within 21 days gets a universal passenger attestation from 3 November, and whether Arizona logs a second screwworm case.
|
|
Animal & Plant Disease Board
|
Where: Arizona (Cochise County, a dog; first AZ detection, 28 Oct); Texas (first U.S. wildlife case, an elk in Pecos County, 21 Oct); New Mexico (a horse, Grant County, 17 Sept). Mexico and Central America remain affected.
U.S. import posture: A 20-km infested zone with movement controls is being set around the Arizona find. Mexican cattle came back through Douglas, AZ from 24 August; current port status not confirmed. Texas set its own entry rules for Mexican cattle arriving elsewhere.
USDA counted 51 U.S. animal detections as of 28 Sept; later total not confirmed. · APHIS |
| African swine fever | STEADY |
Where: Europe: 61 new domestic-pig and 170 wild-boar outbreaks in September, with two countries reporting new events; no new outbreaks in Asia-Pacific, the Americas or the Middle East that month.
U.S. import posture: No change found to U.S. restrictions.
Domestic-pig outbreaks in Europe trending down since September 2025. · WOAH, 24 Oct |
| Foot-and-mouth disease | STEADY |
Where: No new import-relevant event found in sources opened this week.
U.S. import posture: No change found.
Earlier 2026 events (Greece, Cyprus, southern Africa) stand; see Not verified. · WOAH |
| Avian influenza (H5N1) | STEADY |
Where: No new import-relevant event found in sources opened this week.
U.S. import posture: No change found.
|
|
|
Human Outbreaks With a Travel Nexus
|
|
Ebola (Bundibugyo) passes 10,000 confirmed cases; two exports by air
DR Congo · Kenya · Nigeria · Uganda
What? DR Congo reported 10,193 confirmed cases and 4,960 deaths by 28 October across eight provinces, with community transmission continuing. Kenya has 9 confirmed cases (2 deaths), all linked to its first case. Nigeria has 1 imported case with travel history to Uganda; 62 contacts were under follow-up on 27 October. Uganda’s outbreak is listed as ended. No case linked to this outbreak has been confirmed in the United States.
So what? Both exported cases travelled through or from Uganda, so transit hubs matter as much as the final destination. CDC rates the risk to the U.S. public as low. U.S. measures: travellers in DR Congo within 21 days cannot board U.S.-bound commercial flights (citizens included); those in Uganda or South Sudan must arrive through designated airports for enhanced screening; from 3 November 11:59 p.m. EST every international passenger must attest they were not in DR Congo in the prior 21 days.
DEVELOPING · Source: ECDC (28 Oct), CDC (29 Oct) |
|
Also noted
| CDC travel notices — Level 1 for Kenya (19 Oct); Level 4 for Ituri and Nord-Kivu, DR Congo. (CDC) | | Yellow fever — CDC Level 2 notices for Colombia and Ghana (Upper West), both 16 Oct. (CDC) | | Imported cases in Europe — ECDC counts four DR Congo-linked cases since May, all health or humanitarian workers; risk to EU/EEA residents rated very low. (ECDC) |
|
|
Precursors & Dual-Use Trade
|
| Nothing new from Treasury, Commerce or Justice on drug precursors surfaced in the sources we opened. The latest confirmed step is China’s September addition of two chemicals to its permit list for exports to the U.S., Mexico and Canada, bringing the list to 18. (AP). Treasury’s 28 October designations (DPRK IT-worker fraud; Rwandan defence ministry) fall outside this product’s scope. |
|
Toxic-Agent Incidents & Treaty News
|
| Nothing met the bar this week. OPCW news in recent weeks concerned its new Director-General and funding, with no incident or finding relevant to the border. |
|
Watch Ahead
Will APHIS confirm a second, separate screwworm case in Arizona? 35% by 26 Nov · Informs: Livestock and pet inspection posture at Arizona ports, including Douglas. | Will DR Congo’s cumulative confirmed Ebola cases pass 11,000 per ECDC or WHO? 60% by 12 Nov · Informs: Whether the 21-day boarding ban and 3 November attestation stay in force. | Will a country not yet affected report a locally detected Bundibugyo case? 15% by 26 Nov · Informs: Whether designated-airport screening widens beyond Uganda and South Sudan. |
|
| Not verified this week: Current status of Mexican cattle imports at Douglas, AZ, and the national screwworm total after 28 September; any October WOAH update on foot-and-mouth disease or avian influenza; WHO Disease Outbreak News (page would not load); any October BIS, OFAC or DOJ precursor action. The Arizona case was read from APHIS’s announcement only. |
|
▶ Listen to this week's Contagia
|
The Cursus Publicus — statim et ubique. Every issue lives at
the Contagia archive.
The Cursus Publicus is an independent, unofficial project, published by a private individual on their own time and not on behalf of any employer or organization; not affiliated with or endorsed by any government agency. It is drawn exclusively from publicly available, open-source information, with AI assistance, and contains no classified, controlled unclassified, or other nonpublic or protected information.
Subscribe · Unsubscribe from Contagia · Archive · Feedback
|
|