Bangladesh

So what?  A 2026 pace already running ahead of last year's, funneled through the same brokers who arrange both the marriages and the boats, points to a maturing smuggling-and-trafficking pipeline rather than a one-off surge, and one where recruitment and transport are sold as a single package. Camp conditions and funding shortfalls in Cox's Bazar are the push factor to watch: any further cut to camp rations or services is likely to show up within weeks as a fresh jump in departures on this route.

So what?  Fencing a border where an unrecognized armed group, not the Myanmar state, controls the opposite bank means Dhaka is negotiating security unilaterally with a non-state actor by default, a precedent-setting posture for how fragmented-state borders get managed elsewhere in the region. Watch whether meth seizure volumes actually fall after construction begins or simply displace to unfenced stretches, the signal of whether this is a durable fix or a route-shifting exercise.