Eritrean Defence Forces

So what?  An Article 51 filing lays legal groundwork for cross-border action, which makes Assab the likeliest objective if Ethiopia escalates. A fight there would open a second armed front on the Red Sea approaches beside the Houthi-Saudi war, and Djibouti, which carries most of Ethiopia's trade, would absorb the shipping and refugee spillover.

So what?  External backing from Eritrea — Ethiopia’s wartime ally against the TPLF in 2020-22 — would mark a stark realignment and points toward a longer, more internationalized war rather than a contained regional flare-up, though Addis Ababa’s account also serves its own narrative of external aggression and isn’t yet independently confirmed. A credible threat to the Djibouti corridor bears directly on regional cargo and fuel throughput, and the Afar displacement figure is likely to keep climbing as fighting pushes east.