María Corina Machado

So what?  The U.S. position makes an arrest or forced removal less likely than a slow squeeze on her movement and rallies. The variable that decides pressure on the government is an election date: with none set, her presence gives the opposition a focal point. Detention or a ban on her travel inside the country would turn this from a political story into a displacement driver.

So what?  The gold commission is the first concrete asset-recovery track, and released reserves are what would fund returns and stabilization. With Machado’s ban unresolved and no electoral date set, these working groups are unlikely to change migrants’ intent to leave, which is the figure to watch.

So what?  Excluding Machado suggests the government is negotiating only with a faction it can manage, risking an agreement contested on the ground much as Venezuela's 2024 election was. How these talks land over the next several days will determine how much deportation-flight cooperation Washington can trade for recognition of whatever government emerges.