Houthi forces struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea — the first attack since declaring a blockade — widening the Iran war’s chokepoint risk beyond Hormuz.
The EU adopted a watered-down 21st Russia sanctions package, dropping personal listings on Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil’s founder under Bulgarian and Italian pressure.
Liberia seized its largest-ever cocaine haul — nearly four tonnes worth $318 million — from a warehouse near Monrovia.
China opened two days of live-fire drills in the Taiwan Strait, timed to a fisheries survey asserting Beijing’s claims over Taiwan’s eastern waters.
North America
U.S. trade chief eyes separate interim deals with Canada, Mexico by year-end, punting rules-of-origin fight to 2027
ILLICIT TRADE / ECON SECURITY
United States
Canada
Mexico
What? U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told the Senate Finance Committee on July 22 that he hopes to reach “at least some arrangements” with Canada and Mexico individually by year-end, while pushing thornier issues — tighter North American content thresholds for autos, and labor and environmental standards — into further talks with Congress in 2027. Greer left Washington the same day for Mexico City to meet President Claudia Sheinbaum’s government; Canada remains excluded from that bilateral track amid its dispute over a 50% U.S. tariff.
So what? An “interim arrangement” that defers rules-of-origin leaves customs classification and country-of-origin verification unsettled well into 2027, extending the uncertainty that pushes manufacturers to pre-position inventory or reroute sourcing before any final rule lands. Canada’s continued absence from the table, now explicitly bilateral-first by design, makes a fully tripartite USMCA renewal look less likely with each passing round.
Panama renews maritime pact with China as Beijing eases pressure on Panamanian shipping
NATIONAL SECURITY
Panama
China
What? Panama and China agreed on July 21, following talks in Beijing, to renew a bilateral maritime-transport treaty granting Panamanian-flagged vessels preferential port tariffs and streamlined procedures in Chinese ports. The renewal follows Panama’s complaint that nearly 500 of its ships were detained for inspection in China this year — a number officials say has now returned to “historical” levels — and comes after Panama canceled a Hong Kong-linked company’s concession to operate two Canal-adjacent ports.
So what? Panama is trading continued commercial access to Chinese ports for smoother shipping ties, which keeps Beijing with real leverage over a U.S.-partner nation at the hemisphere’s most important trade chokepoint even as the port-concession dispute itself cools. Expect Washington to watch this détente closely as a test of whether Panama’s neutrality commitments hold under renewed Chinese economic engagement.
Venezuela’s earthquake toll passes 5,398 dead a month on, with tens of thousands still unaccounted for
ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
Venezuela
What? Venezuela’s National Assembly reported on July 23 that the confirmed death toll from the June 24 twin earthquakes has risen to 5,398, with 16,740 injured, as the government pledged 4,000 new homes for roughly 23,000 displaced people by year’s end and the IMF released about $346 million in reserves for reconstruction. Caracas has not published an official missing-persons count, but the UN’s humanitarian chief has consistently estimated 50,000 people remain unaccounted for.
So what? A month-old disaster still climbing in confirmed dead and still carrying a five-figure unresolved missing-persons estimate is the kind of prolonged toll that historically precedes a displacement wave once emergency aid tapers off, rather than at the moment of the disaster itself. No cross-border movement into Colombia is confirmed yet, but the housing pledge’s slow timeline — only 4,000 of a planned 10,000 homes before 2027 — means the incentive to leave will outlast the current aid cycle.
U.S. vows to cut off Haitian gangs’ social-media income as violence displaces 1.5 million
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
Haiti
United States
What? U.S. Ambassador to the UN Mike Waltz said on July 20, after visiting Haiti, that Washington will soon act to stop gangs from monetizing social-media posts that celebrate killings, issue threats, and use cash displays to recruit children into gangs that now control most of the capital. The UN says gang violence has displaced nearly 1.5 million people and killed more than 2,300 since January, with over half the population needing humanitarian aid.
So what? Gangs’ social-media cash displays function as an open recruitment and extortion-proof channel that traditional financial interdiction doesn’t reach, so a platform-side crackdown targets a genuinely under-addressed revenue and recruitment vector rather than duplicating existing anti-gang sanctions. Watch whether Washington pursues this through platform takedowns, which are faster but easy to route around with new accounts, or a formal financial designation instead.
EU adopts watered-down 21st Russia sanctions package, dropping Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil’s founder from the list
ILLICIT TRADE / ECON SECURITY
Russia
Bulgaria
Italy
What? EU governments agreed on July 23 to a 21st sanctions package against Russia after weeks of deadlock, dropping proposed personal listings on Russian Orthodox Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov under pressure from Bulgaria and Italy, while Greece secured an exemption from a full ban on shipping Russian LNG to third countries and France and Germany blocked a proposed ban on Russian cod and pollock imports.
So what? A pattern of carve-outs — energy, seafood, and now two prominent personal designations — shows individual member states’ commercial and diplomatic interests are increasingly able to blunt the EU’s sanctions machinery package by package, which is exactly the seam shadow-fleet operators and sanctions-evasion financiers are built to exploit. Expect enforcement gaps to persist around LNG-adjacent shipping and Lukoil-linked assets until a future package revisits the same carve-outs under less time pressure.
Channel Tunnel operator warns EU biometric border checks may miss September deadline
ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
France
United Kingdom
What? Getlink, which operates the Channel Tunnel, said on July 23 that software instability at the EU level could push the biometric phase of the bloc’s new Entry/Exit System past its September 6 deadline for car passengers, after already running manual, non-biometric EES registration through the summer holiday season at Dover and its Folkestone and Coquelles terminals. Getlink has invested €80 million (about $91 million) preparing its terminals for the system.
So what? A second consecutive summer of incomplete EES rollout at one of Europe’s busiest land crossings means travelers are still being logged manually rather than through the biometric overstay-tracking the system is designed to enable — exactly the gap document-fraud and overstay actors have had extra time to route around. Expect pressure on the Commission to either harden the September deadline or grant Dover and Eurotunnel another formal extension, as it has for other EES sites.
German combat engineers deploy to fortify Poland’s border with Belarus and Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave
PARTNERSHIPS
Poland
Germany
What? German Bundeswehr combat engineers arrived in eastern Poland in early July and are now working alongside Polish forces to dig anti-tank ditches and build fortifications along the Poland-Belarus border and near Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave, part of Poland’s “Eastern Shield” program; the deployment runs from the second quarter of 2026 through the end of 2027. The presence of German troops on Polish soil is politically notable given the two countries’ World War II-era history.
So what? A multi-year German troop commitment to physically fortifying NATO’s eastern land border is a concrete capability add for the frontier states most exposed to a Russia-Belarus threat, and it signals Berlin is willing to normalize forward-deployed engineering support despite historical sensitivities. Expect this cooperation model — German engineers under Polish command — to become a template other NATO eastern-flank states cite when requesting similar bilateral fortification support.
Houthis strike two Saudi oil tankers in first attack since declaring Red Sea blockade
NATIONAL SECURITY
Yemen
Saudi Arabia
Iran
What? Yemen’s Houthi movement said it struck the Saudi-flagged tankers Encelia and Layla with missiles and drones on July 22 — the first attack since the group declared a naval blockade against vessels calling at Saudi ports. Saudi Arabia’s state news agency confirmed a fire aboard the Encelia, hit on its starboard side roughly 70 nautical miles southwest of Al Shuqaiq, with all crew reported safe. The strikes land on the 12th consecutive night of U.S. strikes on Iran, widening the war’s chokepoint risk beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
So what? The blockade has now moved from a threat that was already re-routing tankers and doubling war-risk premiums to a demonstrated capability, removing any remaining case for shippers to test compliance rather than divert. Expect a fast acceleration of Cape of Good Hope re-routing for Saudi-bound and Saudi-flagged cargo specifically, compounding — not replacing — the separate Hormuz disruption already squeezing Gulf-origin trade.
Trump administration weighs first-ever U.S. strikes on Mali’s JNIM insurgency
NATIONAL SECURITY
Mali
United States
Russia
What? The Washington Post reported on July 22 that senior Trump administration officials are divided over whether to authorize U.S. strikes against JNIM, the al-Qaeda-linked group fighting Mali’s army for control of the country’s north since early July, including an ambush that killed or captured at least 50 Malian soldiers. A strike would make Mali the eighth country hit under Trump’s strike orders this term, and risks requiring Syria-style deconfliction with Russian forces operating alongside Mali’s military.
So what? Direct U.S. action against a Sahel insurgency the administration itself calls a “multinational problem” would mark a major expansion of the U.S. counterterrorism footprint into a region increasingly reliant on Russian security partnerships, raising the odds of an inadvertent U.S.-Russia friction incident on top of the JNIM fight itself. Watch whether Washington instead channels support through NATO allies and the Alliance of Sahel States, which would signal restraint even as the insurgency’s territorial gains continue.
Liberia seizes record 3,971 kg of cocaine worth $318 million in Monrovia-area warehouse raid
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
SIGNIFICANT SEIZURE
Liberia
What? Liberia’s Drug Enforcement Agency, backed by national police, raided a warehouse in the VOA Community, Paynesville, on July 21-22, seizing 3,971 kilograms of cocaine that officials valued at $318 million — the largest drug bust in the country’s history. Two foreign nationals, a Colombian-Spanish dual citizen and a Serbian national, were arrested at the scene along with several Liberians.
So what? A near-four-tonne warehouse cache, well inland from the port, points to Liberia being used for storage and onward trans-shipment rather than as a one-off transit stop, which argues for treating Monrovia-area logistics hubs as a standing watch-list item, not just the airport and seaport chokepoints. Expect West African liaison and INTERPOL to trace the Colombian and Serbian nationals’ networks for the corridor feeding this warehouse, since that nationality pairing usually signals a South America-to-Balkans distribution chain routing through West Africa.
China stages two days of live-fire drills in Taiwan Strait, timed to a fisheries survey asserting Beijing’s claims
NATIONAL SECURITY
China
Taiwan
What? China’s PLA is conducting live-fire exercises July 24-25 in waters off Dongshan Island, Fujian province, extending into the Taiwan Strait, coinciding with the completion of a week-long Chinese fisheries-resource survey east of Taiwan that Beijing’s Agriculture Ministry framed as mapping waters “under China’s jurisdiction.” The drills follow recent talks between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and China’s Wang Yi.
So what? Pairing a military-drill announcement with a civilian fisheries-survey claim over Taiwan’s eastern waters is a template for expanding gray-zone pressure through non-military agencies first, then normalizing the area with live-fire exercises. Expect Taipei to protest the drills’ timing as coordinated pressure rather than a routine exercise, given the fisheries-survey overlap, and watch whether the same pairing repeats on Taiwan’s western approaches next.
UN report: Southeast Asia’s scam and trafficking networks have merged into a $114 billion criminal ecosystem
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
Cambodia
Myanmar
What? The UN Office on Drugs and Crime’s regional threat assessment, launched July 21 in Bangkok, found that scam operations cost victims across East and Southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand between $88.3 billion and $114.1 billion in 2025 — at least three times the $18-37 billion estimated for 2023 — as previously separate criminal syndicates merge financial networks, technology, and specialized services, with Cambodia and Myanmar as primary hubs.
So what? A tripling of scam losses in two years signals the compound centers have scaled past a policing capacity problem into a financial-system one, since the report’s core finding is that these networks now share money-laundering and crypto-settlement infrastructure across syndicates rather than operating independently. Expect this shared-infrastructure finding to sharpen the case for targeting the compounds’ financial rails directly — crypto exchanges and payment processors — rather than individual scam centers, which merely relocate when raided.
We think it likely the Houthis strike at least one more Saudi-linked commercial vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor within two weeks of today’s first confirmed hits on the Encelia and Layla, unless Saudi Arabia negotiates a de-facto safe-passage arrangement through Omani or Emirati intermediaries.
We think it likely the EU proposes or adopts a supplementary Russia-sanctions measure specifically targeting the shadow fleet, LNG trade, or today’s Kirill/Alekperov carve-outs within two months, rather than letting the watered-down 21st package stand unamended through September.
We lean toward the U.S. not conducting any military strikes inside Mali within 30 days, despite the internal deliberations The Washington Post reported today, unless JNIM stages another mass-casualty ambush that forces the administration’s hand.
Looking further out, we think it likely that West Africa’s combined cocaine trans-shipment volumes — Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, and neighboring littoral states — will keep growing over the next twelve months and exceed 2026’s already record-setting hauls, absent a sustained multinational interdiction surge.
THE CURSUS PUBLICUS
statim et ubique — swiftly and everywhere
The Cursus Publicus was the Roman Empire’s courier network — relays of riders and waystations that sped dispatches and intelligence from the distant frontiers back to Rome.
The Cursus Publicus is an independent, unofficial project, written and published by a private individual on their own time and not on behalf of any employer or organization. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or representative of any government agency, and nothing herein represents an official position, assessment, or guidance.
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Provided on an opt-in basis, for situational awareness and early warning. Drawing on open sources, it may be incomplete, contain errors, or lag events — treat it as a first read, verified against the primary sources it cites, and consult official channels for authoritative information. Provided “as is,” without warranty of any kind.
