Trump says he's “close” to ordering a “massive attack” on Iran as the Bab el-Mandeb blockade turns live and oil tops $100 a barrel.
Treasury's largest-ever CJNG action sanctions the cartel's new leader and more than fifty of his associates and companies.
China escalated on two fronts today: Taiwan Strait live-fire drills and a water-cannon strike on a Philippine vessel.
A UN report puts Southeast Asia's scam-industry losses at up to $114 billion in 2025, tripling in two years.
North America
Treasury's largest-ever CJNG action sanctions cartel's new leader and more than 50 of his associates
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
Mexico
United States
What? The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control announced on July 23 its largest-ever action against the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, sanctioning more than 50 individuals and companies tied to Juan Carlos Valencia González — known as “El 03” and “Pelón” — who took over as the cartel's overall leader after the Mexican military killed his stepfather, Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes (“El Mencho”), earlier this year.
So what? Freezing the new leader's declared financial network, rather than just naming him, is meant to choke succession-era cash flow before he can consolidate control the way El Mencho did — a period cartels typically use to expand routes while enforcement attention is elsewhere. Watch for a fragmentation fight among factions this list doesn't reach, which has historically driven short-term violence spikes along Mexico's Pacific trafficking corridors.
Mexican mayor shot dead in town hall, months after surviving an earlier cartel hit
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
Mexico
What? Gunmen shot and killed Temoac, Morelos mayor Valentín Lavín inside the town hall on July 22, six months after he survived an earlier assassination attempt at a gas station. He is the 14th Mexican mayor murdered since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office in October 2024, part of a toll of nearly 100 since 2006.
So what? A second, successful attempt on an official who had already survived one hit signals cartels operating in Morelos see no deterrent in the protection mayors typically receive after a first attack. Expect other threatened municipal officials in cartel-contested states to press for relocation or armed details rather than trust standard protective measures going forward.
RCMP doubles its liaison presence in the U.S. and Mexico under new federal crime-fighting push
PARTNERSHIPS
Canada
United States
Mexico
What? The Royal Canadian Mounted Police said this week it has doubled its international liaison presence in the United States and Mexico under a “Beyond Borders” expansion funded by Canada's 2025 budget, which is adding 1,000 new federal-policing personnel. The RCMP credited the larger footprint for enforcement wins including Operation Giant Slalom, which dismantled the cartel-linked Ryan Wedding trafficking network, and a joint action against Lawrence Bishnoi's India-based crime network, together helping intercept 5,600 kg of cocaine and methamphetamine before it reached Canada.
So what? A doubled RCMP liaison footprint in Mexico specifically gives Canadian and U.S. agencies a stronger shared forward presence against the same cartel supply chains feeding both countries, widening the case for joint targeting packages over parallel national efforts. Expect Ottawa to cite the Bishnoi and Wedding cases as proof of concept when it seeks renewed funding for the program next budget cycle.
Canadian cross-border bust seizes 1.7 tonnes of drugs and 17 firearms, including an antique anti-tank rifle
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
SIGNIFICANT SEIZURE
Canada
What? Ontario's “Project Bay” investigation — led by Windsor Police with the Ontario Provincial Police and the Canada Border Services Agency, assisted by U.S. Homeland Security Investigations and the DEA — seized nearly 1.7 tonnes of cocaine, methamphetamine, and opium valued at C$139 million, plus 17 firearms including an antique anti-tank rifle, after an 18-month probe traced a broker-style scheme recruiting commercial truck drivers to carry drugs across the Windsor-Detroit crossing inside legitimate freight.
Panama Canal tightens draft limits and suspends booking auctions as El Niño risk hits 81%
ILLICIT TRADE / ECON SECURITY
Panama
What? The Panama Canal Authority cut its maximum vessel draft to 49 feet this week, with a further cut to 48.5 feet from August 15, and is suspending its “Period 3” Panamax booking auctions from July 25 — trimming daily transit slots from 36 to 34 — as forecasters raised the odds of a severe El Niño this year to 81%, up from 25% in April. MSC, CMA CGM, and Hapag-Lloyd have all announced new per-container surcharges of $100-130 on Panama Canal routings ahead of the restrictions.
So what? The Canal Authority had ruled out 2026 restrictions as recently as May, so this reversal signals the drought outlook has deteriorated faster than the Authority's own public guidance suggested. Expect carriers to keep layering surcharges ahead of the confirmed cuts rather than wait for the August 15 draft reduction, front-loading costs onto cargo transiting the chokepoint now.
World Bank puts Venezuela earthquake damage at $19.6 billion as toll passes 5,300 dead a month on
ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
Venezuela
What? The World Bank estimated on July 23 that the June 24 twin earthquakes caused $19.6 billion in physical damage — 47% to homes, 27% to infrastructure, 26% to non-residential buildings — using satellite imagery and seismic modeling, with La Guaira state and the capital district hit hardest. A month on, Venezuela's confirmed death toll has passed 5,300 with more than 16,500 injured and over 17,000 people left homeless; most international rescue crews have already gone home, leaving families to keep searching wreckage for missing relatives largely on their own.
So what? A damage bill of that scale, against a state rebuilding budget already strained before the quakes, points toward a slow-motion housing crisis that outlasts the emergency-response phase — the kind of prolonged displacement pressure that tends to surface as outward migration months after a disaster fades from headlines, not during it. Watch Caracas's reconstruction pace in La Guaira specifically: a stalled rebuild there is what would tip lingering displacement into a durable outflow toward Colombia and beyond.
Source: Al Jazeera (2026-07-23) and BBC (2026-07-24)
UN: Ecuador's banana ports have become a key artery for record global cocaine trade
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
Ecuador
What? UNODC's 2026 World Drug Report identified Ecuador — bordering top producers Colombia and Peru — as a central node in cocaine trafficking, with EU investigators estimating 57% of banana containers leaving Guayaquil for Antwerp carry cocaine shipments; the report put 2024 global cocaine production at a record 4,100 tonnes. Colombian, Mexican, and Albanian networks all operate through Ecuadorian ports, exploiting weaker container inspection controls than neighboring states.
So what? A 57% contamination rate on one specific trade lane means banana-container screening at Guayaquil isn't a spot-check problem anymore — it's the primary route, and treating it as routine agricultural cargo materially undercounts what's transiting through it. Expect European and Ecuadorian authorities to face pressure to shift from random inspection to near-universal scanning on the Guayaquil-Antwerp banana lane specifically, given how concentrated the exploit has become.
EU adopts broadest Russia sanctions in four years, targeting shadow-fleet enablers for the first time
ILLICIT TRADE / ECON SECURITY
Russia
What? The EU adopted its 21st Russia sanctions package on July 23 — the bloc's broadest since 2022 — with 218 new designations covering 94 banks and 14 crypto platforms based in Georgia, Panama, the UAE, the Marshall Islands, Kyrgyzstan, and Belarus. For the first time, the package sanctions 41 vessels that refuel and service the shadow fleet itself, not just the tankers carrying Russian crude, bringing the total fleet under sanction past 670 vessels, while freezing the Russian oil price cap at $44.10 a barrel for 12 months rather than letting it rise to roughly $58.50.
So what? Targeting the refuelers and servicers, not just the crude-carrying tankers, closes a gap the shadow fleet has used for years, since a sanctioned tanker could still find fuel and maintenance from unsanctioned support vessels. Expect the shadow fleet to try recruiting service vessels flagged in the same jurisdictions the EU just sanctioned for crypto platforms, given those flag states' limited enforcement appetite so far.
Latvia logs 111 straight days of Belarus-directed migrant pushes, accuses “Russian mob” of orchestrating pressure
ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION
Latvia
Belarus
What? Latvia's State Border Guard has recorded migrant crossings pushed from Belarus for 111 consecutive days, totaling 8,253 attempts this year; Latvian soldiers used tear gas and fired a warning shot this week after migrants threw logs at them. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs said the “top level of the Russian mob” is directing the flow, describing the migrants as men aged 18-25 with criminal records issued visas by Belarus; Minsk and Moscow deny orchestrating the pressure.
So what? A sustained, four-month daily cadence — rather than periodic surges — indicates Minsk has shifted from episodic leverage to a standing instrument it can dial up or down as a bargaining chip over Latvia's Ukraine support. Expect Latvia to press Brussels for a Poland-style border infrastructure package now that the pressure has proven durable rather than a one-off spike.
Belarus says it warned Poland of a terror plot targeting a dissident's children, in an unconfirmed claim
NATIONAL SECURITY
Belarus
Poland
What? Belarus's Foreign Ministry said on July 23 it briefed Poland's chargé d'affaires on an alleged plot to attack the minor children of a Belarusian opposition activist living in Poland, naming a person recently stripped of protected status and residency in Poland as the suspect and citing revenge as the motive. Warsaw had not independently confirmed the claim or the underlying threat as of this writing.
So what? An unverified warning relayed through diplomatic channels, rather than a joint law-enforcement statement, is a low-cost way for Minsk to position itself as cooperative on security while the underlying claim stays untestable. Expect Poland's own services to either corroborate or quietly drop the claim within days, given how specific and checkable it is.
Trump says he's “close” to a “massive” new strike on Iran as Bab el-Mandeb blockade turns live and oil tops $100
NATIONAL SECURITY
Iran
Yemen
Saudi Arabia
What? The U.S. struck Iran for a 13th consecutive night on July 23-24, with Iranian state media reporting the campaign's first casualties this window — two killed and 11 injured near Shalamcheh and Ramshir. Iran's Revolutionary Guard retaliated with a new drone strike on Kuwait's Al-Abdali border crossing, on top of already-struck sites in Kuwait and Jordan. In a Thursday Axios interview, President Trump said he is “considering a massive attack” on Iran “bigger than ever before” and is “close to making a decision,” even as Brent crude held above $100 a barrel — a level last seen in May — and Hormuz war-risk insurance surged to 7.5-10% of hull value, up from a historical 1-3%.
So what? A president publicly weighing the war's largest strikes yet, rather than continuing the steady nightly pattern of the past two weeks, is itself new information that shippers and insurers are pricing as expansion risk, not stabilization. With Bab el-Mandeb now a second live-fire chokepoint alongside Hormuz, expect war-risk premiums and Cape of Good Hope rerouting to keep climbing regardless of whether Trump actually orders the larger strike, since insurers are already pricing the threat itself.
Mossad says it foiled Iranian plot to infiltrate assassination cells into Israel
NATIONAL SECURITY
Israel
Iran
What? Israel's Mossad disclosed on July 23 a joint operation that thwarted an Iranian Ministry of Intelligence plot to recruit criminal intermediaries — two men living in Iran — to assemble an operational cell capable of entering Israel, surveilling officials, and carrying out assassinations, distancing Tehran from the attack through cutout recruiters rather than direct operatives. The operation involved Mossad, Israel's Shin Bet, and unnamed foreign services.
So what? Using criminal cutouts rather than trained operatives to build an assassination cell is a lower-cost, more deniable model Iran can attempt again with different recruits even after this network is rolled up. Expect Israeli and partner services to widen screening of criminal-network travel into Israel specifically, since that recruitment channel — not traditional intelligence tradecraft — was this plot's actual point of entry.
Ethiopia dismantles trafficking ring that tortured migrants on video to extort families, at least 60 dead
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
Ethiopia
Yemen
Saudi Arabia
What? Ethiopian federal police announced on July 21 the collapse of a trafficking network that smuggled more than 40,000 migrants toward Saudi Arabia via Djibouti and Yemen, locking victims in warehouses, filming their torture, and sending the footage to families to extort ransom payments; investigators say the scheme collected over one billion birr and left at least 60 victims dead. Seventeen suspects were arrested, including alleged kingpin Mohamed Tahir Aden, known as “Werdi.”
So what? A network processing 40,000-plus migrants points to an established, semi-industrial smuggling pipeline rather than an opportunistic operation, meaning these arrests likely disrupt one node without closing the Djibouti-Yemen route itself. Expect the same Horn-of-Africa-to-Gulf pipeline to keep operating under different management within months, given how lucrative and apparently under-policed the ransom-extortion model has proven.
China fires water cannon at Philippine vessel with CNN crew aboard, third Scarborough Shoal clash this week
NATIONAL SECURITY
China
Philippines
What? Chinese coast guard ships fired water cannon at a Philippine Bureau of Fisheries vessel carrying a CNN crew near Scarborough Shoal on July 24, circling the smaller ship as it approached to resupply fuel for local fishermen — the third confrontation in the disputed waters this week, following a Monday clash at Second Thomas Shoal where Chinese personnel were filmed ramming a Philippine craft. China's coast guard logged 993 ship-days around Scarborough Shoal in June alone, nearly matching its entire 2025 presence there.
So what? A tenfold-plus jump in persistent presence, not just episodic confrontations, signals Beijing is normalizing continuous coast guard occupation of the shoal rather than intermittent pressure — the same playbook China has used to entrench its position at other contested reefs. Expect Manila to keep inviting international media aboard resupply runs specifically to generate documented incidents, since that tactic has done more to keep the standoff internationally visible than diplomatic protest alone.
China stages Taiwan Strait live-fire drills as Rubio warns coast guard deployments “undermine regional stability”
NATIONAL SECURITY
China
Taiwan
What? China's military began two days of live-fire exercises on July 23 in the Taiwan Strait near Fujian province, the same day Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Beijing's coast guard deployments near Taiwan “undermine regional stability” and that Washington won't accept international waterways being treated as under another country's control. The drills follow earlier Chinese “special maritime law enforcement operations” east of Taiwan, where coast guard vessels radioed merchant ships to leave the area; the UK, Germany, and France have separately raised concerns.
So what? Timing live-fire drills to a direct U.S. rebuke, rather than after it fades from the news cycle, is itself a signal Beijing wants the exercises read as a response, not a coincidence. Expect Taipei to treat the timing as confirmation that Beijing calibrates military signaling to U.S. statements in real time, reinforcing its case to allies that deterrent messaging needs to move just as fast.
UN: Southeast Asia's scam networks cost victims up to $114 billion in 2025, tripling in two years
TRANSNATIONAL ORGANIZED CRIME
Cambodia
Myanmar
What? UNODC's regional threat assessment estimated scam losses across East and Southeast Asia, Australia, and New Zealand at $88.3-114.1 billion in 2025, up from $18-37 billion in 2023, as Chinese-origin syndicates diversify revenue and increasingly adopt artificial intelligence. FBI Director Kash Patel met Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet on July 22 to coordinate against the networks, and Hun Manet has pledged a nationwide crackdown on scam compounds he says are “destroying” Cambodia's economy.
So what? A tripling in two years, alongside a sitting prime minister publicly conceding the compounds are damaging his own economy, suggests the crackdown rhetoric now carries a domestic political incentive it lacked when the centers were seen mainly as a foreign-victim problem. Watch whether Phnom Penh's next moves target the compounds' physical footprint or their financial rails, since the report's own finding is that shared banking and crypto infrastructure — not any single compound — is what let losses scale this fast.
We now see a formal U.S.-Iran ceasefire by January 2027 as unlikely, revised down from roughly even odds: Trump's talk of an even larger strike, layered on a second live chokepoint, cuts against consolidation toward a stand-down.
We likewise now see Hormuz shipping traffic normalizing by year-end as unlikely, revising our estimate down further, since Bab el-Mandeb joining Hormuz as an active chokepoint gives the war two fronts to de-escalate instead of one.
We think it's roughly a coin flip that the U.S. carries out a strike wave on Iran within two weeks that officials or credible reporting describe as larger than the war's opening night, given Trump's own description of being “close” to ordering exactly that.
Looking further out, we think it's likely that UNODC's next annual estimate, due around mid-2027, will show Southeast Asian scam-network losses at or above this year's $88-114 billion range, since the syndicates' shared financial infrastructure has outpaced enforcement for three years running.
THE CURSUS PUBLICUS
statim et ubique — swiftly and everywhere
The Cursus Publicus was the Roman Empire’s courier network — relays of riders and waystations that sped dispatches and intelligence from the distant frontiers back to Rome.
The Cursus Publicus is an independent, unofficial project, written and published by a private individual on their own time and not on behalf of any employer or organization. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, sponsored by, or representative of any government agency, and nothing herein represents an official position, assessment, or guidance.
It is drawn exclusively from publicly available, open-source information, with AI assistance, and contains no classified, controlled unclassified, or other nonpublic or protected information.
Provided on an opt-in basis, for situational awareness and early warning. Drawing on open sources, it may be incomplete, contain errors, or lag events — treat it as a first read, verified against the primary sources it cites, and consult official channels for authoritative information. Provided “as is,” without warranty of any kind.
