Estonia

So what?  A route that barely existed last year now feeds a Baltic detention system, which shows facilitators using a new seam on the Belarus route. The three-week fall at the Latvian line is the first sign the shift may be cooling. Continued growth in Estonian cases despite that fall would point to a deliberate state-backed push.

So what?  Prepaid fees of that size and a visa-free air leg point to an organised corridor that Moscow and Minsk can open or close. Pressure likely peaks over the next weeks and then falls with winter, unless Belarus keeps escorting groups to the border.

So what?  A minister explicitly describing Belarus as directing migrants into specific terrain, rather than merely tolerating the flow, keeps the state-complicity framing squarely on the table even without a legal case yet to test it. Watch whether Vilnius or Riga follows the tunnel discoveries with a criminal referral naming specific Belarusian officials, since that would be the first concrete legal test of a complicity claim Baltic governments have so far only made in public statements.