Kenya

So what?  This is a regional-force fight inside one country, so the flow is a short-hop displacement into Marsabit county rather than a northbound migration wave, and most of it should return if the front quiets. The risk to watch is secondary movement from the camps toward Nairobi and the Horn smuggling routes if conditions in the camps stay poor. The count rising past 70,000 would signal the fighting is not contained.

So what?  The count has crossed 10,000 but all of Kenya's cases remain in one connected group. Exported cases will likely keep arriving as isolated travel-linked events, like the Kenyan index case that flew back through Uganda, rather than as clusters. Until a vaccine moves beyond the trial, airport screening and contact tracing carry the load.

So what?  The second case sat inside the quarantined contact group, which is the better outcome, and the exposed-passenger gap is the part that can still break containment. Expect Nairobi’s onward connections to attract more exit screening of travelers coming from the DR Congo corridor. A case outside the contact list would be the signal to prepare for screening beyond Kenya.

So what?  Ebola leaves the DRC by air through regional hubs, as the Kenya case showed, so exit screening and manifest-based contact tracing are the tools that matter. Cholera is moving along the Congo River toward the Republic of Congo, which makes river traffic the next cross-border pathway; a confirmed cholera case across the river would be the signal.

So what?  The tracing list now includes flight passengers, which makes airline manifests and arrival screening at Nairobi and Entebbe the working tools. With a 2-to-8-day incubation window, the signal to watch is a second confirmed case among health workers or relatives within the week.