Uganda
7 items across 7 editions · last active 22 Oct 26
Forecast calls
Track record here: 1 / 2 (50%) on 2 resolved calls.
Open calls (5)
- due 26 Nov 26 A country not yet on the outbreak list (beyond DR Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Nigeria and France) reports a locally detected confirmed Bundibugyo case, not a medical evacuation, by 2026-11-26, per WHO or that country's health ministry.
- due 12 Nov 26 ECDC or WHO reports more than 11,000 cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases in DR Congo by 2026-11-12.
- due 30 Jun 27 WHO declares the DR Congo Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak over by 30 June 2027.
- due 8 Nov 26 Kenya's health ministry or the WHO confirms a second Bundibugyo Ebola case in Kenya by November 8, 2026.
- due 30 Nov 26 Either Uganda or Rwanda is formally confirmed by name as the EU Group of Five's chosen return-hub partner by November 30, 2026.
Running series
Multi-edition arcs this desk appears in — the wire flash, each morning’s edition, and the forecast call on one timeline.
- Kenya reports its first Ebola death, a Bundibugyo case that flew from the DRC through Uganda to Nairobi
- EU's Group of Five Names Uganda and Rwanda as Leading Return-Hub Candidates
- DRC's Ebola outbreak passes 4,660 cases and a 47% fatality rate as the UN warns "Ebola is winning"
- DRC's Ebola outbreak becomes the fastest-growing ever recorded as cases reach two new provinces
In the brief
No. 114 · Thursday, 22 October 2026
Nigeria confirms its first Ebola Bundibugyo case in Abuja, a woman who travelled from Uganda, with 44 contacts under watch
So what? A virus with no licensed vaccine found 13 days after symptom onset in a hub city makes traveler health screening on West African routes the pressure point, even with WHO advising no restrictions. A second Nigerian case outside the 44 contacts would signal undetected spread and change that read.
Developing · Source: UN News (WHO) (21 Oct 2026)
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No. 100 · Thursday, 8 October 2026
Kenya reports its first Ebola death, a Bundibugyo case that flew from the DRC through Uganda to Nairobi
So what? The tracing list now includes flight passengers, which makes airline manifests and arrival screening at Nairobi and Entebbe the working tools. With a 2-to-8-day incubation window, the signal to watch is a second confirmed case among health workers or relatives within the week.
Developing · Source: UN News (Oct 7)
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No. 68 · Sunday, 6 September 2026
EU's Group of Five Names Uganda and Rwanda as Leading Return-Hub Candidates
So what? Naming two concrete candidates is real movement from Friday's still-unnamed-host framing, but it falls short of a public commitment — neither government has confirmed, and Rwanda's earlier experience hosting relocated migrants under the UK's now-abandoned scheme cuts both ways, since that arrangement collapsed under legal and logistical strain before operating at scale. Watch the Munich meeting later this month for whether either country actually commits, since a reported shortlist and a signed host-country agreement are very different things.
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No. 46 · Saturday, 15 August 2026
DRC's Ebola outbreak passes 4,660 cases and a 47% fatality rate as the UN warns "Ebola is winning"
So what? The fatality rate outpacing the response funding, rather than any spread beyond the two affected countries, is the more urgent signal for now — current traveler-screening posture at DRC/Uganda crossings and transit hubs doesn't need to widen yet, but a second emergency funding tranche this month suggests the response is still behind the epidemic's own curve. A confirmed case in a third country, not the case count alone, remains the threshold that would change that calculus.
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No. 25 · Saturday, 25 July 2026
DRC's Ebola outbreak death toll passes 1,000, now the third-largest on record
So what? A still-expanding outbreak already exporting cases to Europe means traveler screening and health-declaration checks on routes out of Central Africa carry real, not theoretical, risk for the near term. Expect the WHO/Africa CDC's $518 million joint response plan to become the marker of whether this stays a regional emergency or spreads further along the same mining and cross-border trade routes driving it now.
Sources: Xinhua · Al Jazeera (2026-07-24)
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No. 17 · Friday, 17 July 2026
DRC's Ebola outbreak keeps outpacing the response as Uganda nears an official all-clear
So what? An outbreak spreading faster than any prior Ebola epidemic at this stage, with most new cases untraceable to known contacts, is the combination that has historically preceded spread beyond a single country's borders, making this a traveler-screening and airport-advisory watch item well before any case is confirmed outside DRC or Uganda. Uganda's clean discharge shows containment is achievable when case counts are managed early, the benchmark DRC's own response is now failing to meet.
Source: UN News (16 July 2026)
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No. 12 · Sunday, 12 July 2026
DR Congo's Ebola outbreak is now the fastest-growing on record, with 600 dead and cases in new provinces
So what? A strain with no vaccine, spreading faster than any prior Ebola outbreak and now reaching new provinces, raises the odds of cross-border seeding into the wider Great Lakes region and, from there, of exit-screening and travel-advisory measures at regional hubs. The operational read is a rising, not receding, biosecurity burden on traveler screening and any workforce operating in or transiting the affected corridor.
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Related
Mission areas Illicit Trade & Economic Security Illegal Immigration
Region Africa / Middle East Europe
Also appears with DR Congo Democratic Republic of the Congo Nigeria Kenya European Union Rwanda