Series

Estonia reports 388 detentions since July of people entering from Belarus, most of them handed on to Latvia

Updated 29 Oct 26  ·  began 29 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 29 Oct 26Call · 50% roughly even Estonian authorities report at least 500 Belarus-route detentions since July, cumulative, by 2026-12-31.
• 29 Oct 26No. 121 Estonia reports 388 detentions since July of people entering from Belarus, most of them handed on to Latvia

Clashes between Ethiopia’s Somali and Oromia forces in Moyale push up to 50,000 people into Kenya

Updated 29 Oct 26  ·  began 25 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 29 Oct 26No. 121 Clashes between Ethiopia’s Somali and Oromia forces in Moyale push up to 50,000 people into Kenya
• 25 Oct 26No. 117 More than 14,000 Ethiopians flee into Kenya’s Moyale after clashes between communities from Oromia and Somali regional states

El Salvador sends about 1,000 troops to Haiti as four missing Gang Suppression Force members remain unaccounted for

Updated 28 Oct 26  ·  began 27 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 28 Oct 26No. 120 El Salvador sends about 1,000 troops to Haiti as four missing Gang Suppression Force members remain unaccounted for
• 27 Oct 26No. 119 El Salvador has about 450 special forces in Haiti as four technicians missing since the ambush remain unaccounted for

European Commission formally proposes making Frontex the EU's central returns agency, with a standing corps of up to 30,000 officers

Updated 28 Oct 26  ·  began 27 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 28 Oct 26No. 120 European Commission formally proposes making Frontex the EU's central returns agency, with a standing corps of up to 30,000 officers
• 27 Oct 26No. 119 European Commission set to give Frontex power to deport migrants between non-EU countries and to monitor social media for large movements

Houthis claim a missile strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil hub as Brent trades near $116

Updated 28 Oct 26  ·  began 26 Oct 26  ·  3 events

• 28 Oct 26No. 120 Houthis claim a missile strike on Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura oil hub as Brent trades near $116
• 27 Oct 26PRIORITY Houthis claim missile strike on Saudi Ras Tanura oil hub; Riyadh contains fire
• 26 Oct 26No. 118 Houthis claim missile and drone strikes on Riyadh’s airport and East-West pipeline pumping stations as the Saudi-led coalition hits launchers in Sanaa

Jordan strikes militant hideouts in southern Syria after the Karak church attack, and Syria closes the Nassib crossing

Updated 28 Oct 26  ·  began 24 Oct 26  ·  7 events

• 27 Oct 26No. 119 Jordan strikes militant hideouts in southern Syria after the Karak church attack, and Syria closes the Nassib crossing
• 26 Oct 26Revised to 97% on the record
  Jordan's state news agency Petra reports security forces captured three people involved in the Karak church attack.
• 26 Oct 26No. 118 Jordan arrests three people over the Karak church attack that killed nine
• 26 Oct 26PRIORITY Jordan strikes militant hideouts in southern Syria after deadly Karak church attack; Syria disputes coordination +2 updates · latest 28 Oct 26
• 25 Oct 26No. 117 Jordan church attack toll rises to nine as the king orders a firm response and security is raised at embassies
• 24 Oct 26Call · 70% likely Jordanian authorities announce at least one arrest or the killing of a suspect in the 23 October Karak church attack by 7 November 2026.
• 24 Oct 26No. 116 Gunmen kill at least seven at a funeral in a church in Jordan’s Karak governorate

Ebola outbreak in DR Congo passes 10,000 confirmed cases as Kenya holds at nine and a vaccine trial begins

Updated 28 Oct 26  ·  began 22 Oct 26  ·  4 events

• 28 Oct 26Call · 50% roughly even ECDC's multi-country Ebola page reports at least 11,500 confirmed cases in DR Congo with a data cut-off on or before 2026-11-16, published by 2026-11-20.
• 28 Oct 26No. 120 Ebola outbreak in DR Congo passes 10,000 confirmed cases as Kenya holds at nine and a vaccine trial begins
• 24 Oct 26No. 116 Ebola in DR Congo reaches 9,765 cases as Kenya winds down quarantine of 100-plus contacts, after Nigeria’s imported case
• 22 Oct 26PRIORITY Nigeria confirms first Ebola case in 12 years: imported Bundibugyo infection in Abuja, 44 contacts monitored

Drone strike on a market in Nyala, South Darfur, kills at least 36 by MSF's count, as the UN counts 306 drone deaths in three weeks

Updated 28 Oct 26  ·  began 20 Oct 26  ·  4 events

• 28 Oct 26No. 120 Drone strike on a market in Nyala, South Darfur, kills at least 36 by MSF's count, as the UN counts 306 drone deaths in three weeks
• 27 Oct 26No. 119 Drone strike on a market in Sudan's Nyala kills at least 21 and injures more than 40
• 24 Oct 26No. 116 Sudan: drone strikes killed at least 306 people in three weeks, including more than 80 at a market in disputed Abyei
• 20 Oct 26No. 112 UN condemns a wave of drone strikes across Sudan, with at least 19 killed over the weekend, including 10 children

UK says Iran's IRGC almost certainly directed the RAF Fairford plot, and about two dozen Western allies condemn Iranian attacks

Updated 28 Oct 26  ·  began 27 Sep 26  ·  17 events

• 28 Oct 26Revised to 97% on the record
  UK prosecutors charged two men under the National Security Act on 27 October over the RAF Fairford plot.
• 13 Oct 26No. 105 UK says Iran's IRGC almost certainly directed the RAF Fairford plot, and about two dozen Western allies condemn Iranian attacks
• 12 Oct 26Miss No charges: all arrested men were released on bail and remained under investigation as of Oct 8; 7 arrests total, none charged.
• 12 Oct 26PRIORITY UK says Iran's IRGC almost certainly directed foiled RAF Fairford plot, vows new sanctions
• 7 Oct 26No. 99 Seventh arrest in the suspected Iran-linked terror plot near RAF Fairford, the base US bombers just left
• 5 Oct 26Call · 45% roughly even UK police charge at least one person in connection with the suspected plot against RAF Fairford by November 5, 2026.
• 5 Oct 26No. 97 US pulls its B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford as the UK says Iran played a part in a suspected plot against the base
• 5 Oct 26IMMEDIATE US pulls all B-1 bombers from RAF Fairford after suspected Iran-linked terror plot
• 3 Oct 26Call · 25% unlikely By November 30, 2026, the UK government publicly attributes the Manchester Jewish-community bomb plot to direction by the Iranian state (not merely a possible contact in Iran).
• 3 Oct 26No. 95 Two men charged over alleged chlorine-bomb plot against Manchester’s Jewish community, with a suspected contact in Iran
• 2 Oct 26No. 94 UK-Iranian dual national arrested in probe of suspected terror plot against US-run RAF Fairford
• 30 Sep 26IMMEDIATE UK prime minister says Iran played a part in RAF Fairford plot
• 29 Sep 26Revised to 50% on the record
  Five suspects bailed without charge and no viable explosives confirmed; charge within the window now roughly even.
• 29 Sep 26No. 91 RAF Fairford: five arrested men bailed without charge as Rubio says a “foreign actor” was involved
• 28 Sep 26Call · 65% likely UK prosecutors file formal terrorism or explosives-related charges against at least one of the five men arrested near RAF Fairford within 14 days of the September 27, 2026 arrests (by October 11, 2026).
• 28 Sep 26No. 90 UK counterterrorism police arrest five near RAF Fairford, the base used for US strikes on Iran
• 27 Sep 26IMMEDIATE UK arrests five near RAF Fairford, hub for US strikes on Iran, on explosives and terrorism charges +2 updates · latest 28 Sep 26

China is building a runway of about 2,700 metres on Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 26 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 26 Oct 26Call · 50% roughly even Independent satellite-imagery analysis published by 2027-09-30 shows a paved, complete runway on Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands.
• 26 Oct 26No. 118 China is building a runway of about 2,700 metres on Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands

About 490 vessels are waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz as U.S.-facilitated transits run well below the historical rate

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 26 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 26 Oct 26Call · 25% unlikely A Joint Maritime Information Center advisory published by 2026-11-15 reports fewer than 300 vessels waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz.
• 26 Oct 26No. 118 About 490 vessels are waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz as U.S.-facilitated transits run well below the historical rate

Lula wins a fourth term in Brazil’s runoff, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by about three points

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 25 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 26 Oct 26No. 118 Lula wins a fourth term in Brazil’s runoff, ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro by about three points
• 25 Oct 26No. 117 Brazil votes today in a neck-and-neck presidential runoff between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro

Mexico orders a former Chihuahua prosecutor to stand trial for treason over a CIA-assisted drug-lab operation

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 18 Oct 26  ·  5 events

• 26 Oct 26Call · 25% unlikely Mexican authorities charge or order to trial a second official in the Chihuahua CIA treason case by 2026-12-15.
• 26 Oct 26No. 118 Mexico orders a former Chihuahua prosecutor to stand trial for treason over a CIA-assisted drug-lab operation
• 22 Oct 26No. 114 Mexico charges former Chihuahua attorney general César Jáuregui with treason over U.S. agents’ role in an April drug-lab raid
• 18 Oct 26Call · 45% roughly even Mexico's federal prosecutors or a Mexican court charge or detain at least one additional current or former Chihuahua state official over the April drug-lab raid by 2026-12-31.
• 18 Oct 26No. 110 Mexico arrests former Chihuahua attorney general César Jáuregui over U.S. agents’ role in an April drug-lab raid

Italy extends its Schengen suspension with Spain by another week as the two governments weigh a replacement

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 16 Oct 26  ·  4 events

• 26 Oct 26Hit On Oct 22 Italy and Spain's interior ministers agreed the border suspensions would not be extended; no further extension followed.
• 22 Oct 26Revised to 97% on the record
  Italy and Spain agreed on October 22 not to extend their Schengen suspension, meeting the call's condition ahead of its October 24 deadline.
• 16 Oct 26Call · 62% likely Italy ends or lets lapse its Schengen controls on arrivals from Spain, with no further extension announced, by October 24, 2026.
• 16 Oct 26No. 108 Italy extends its Schengen suspension with Spain by another week as the two governments weigh a replacement

Taiwan's coastguard handover to the Philippines draws a formal protest from Beijing

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 26 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 26 Oct 26Miss Beijing's response to the transfer stayed political (Taiwan Affairs Office condemnation); coast guard incidents in the window tracked existing flashpoints, not the transfer.
• 26 Sep 26Call · 45% roughly even China's coast guard conducts at least one publicized law-enforcement approach, shadowing incident, or intercept against a Philippine vessel explicitly tied to the Taiwan coastguard-vessel transfer dispute, within 30 days of the September 16, 2026 handover (by October 26, 2026).
• 26 Sep 26No. 88 Taiwan's coastguard handover to the Philippines draws a formal protest from Beijing

Fresh Fighting Displaces Another 1,000 From North Darfur Into Chad

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 21 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 26 Oct 26Non liquet No IOM/UNHCR figures found for Sept 21-Oct 21, 2026; the window cannot be graded.
• 21 Sep 26Call · 65% likely IOM records at least 2,000 additional people displaced from North Darfur into Chad within 30 days of September 21, 2026 (by October 21, 2026).
• 21 Sep 26No. 83 Fresh Fighting Displaces Another 1,000 From North Darfur Into Chad

Frontex: Irregular EU Border Crossings Fell 35% Through August, but the Western Mediterranean Bucked the Trend

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 17 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 26 Oct 26Non liquet Frontex's release gives only cumulative figures (Jan-Sep +26%, down from +34% through Aug); the September-only y/y change is derivable only by rough estimate.
• 17 Sep 26Call · 58% likely Frontex's next monthly irregular-crossing release (covering September 2026) shows the Western Mediterranean route posting a further year-over-year increase, extending the trend already visible through August.
• 17 Sep 26No. 79 Frontex: Irregular EU Border Crossings Fell 35% Through August, but the Western Mediterranean Bucked the Trend

Colombia's De la Espriella Authorizes 30 Extraditions in First 16 Days

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 26 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 26 Oct 26Non liquet Extraditions continued; no formal protest from a recipient government found, but searches were not exhaustive per country.
• 26 Aug 26Call · 25% unlikely Colombia's extradition surge draws a formal diplomatic protest or public objection from a recipient government within 60 days of the August 26 disclosure that 30 extraditions have been authorized in 16 days (by October 25, 2026).
• 26 Aug 26No. 57 Colombia's De la Espriella Authorizes 30 Extraditions in First 16 Days

Colombia Orders Immigration Raids, Moves to Deport Undocumented Venezuelans

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 25 Aug 26  ·  4 events

• 26 Oct 26Non liquet No government deportation count for the period was found, and no mass-transfer deal with Caracas; cannot decide.
• 25 Aug 26Call · 60% likely Colombia deports fewer than 5,000 undocumented Venezuelans in the first 60 days of President de la Espriella's crackdown (by October 24, 2026).
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Colombia Orders Immigration Raids, Moves to Deport Undocumented Venezuelans
• 25 Aug 26PRIORITY Colombia's new president orders immigration raids, vows mass deportation of undocumented Venezuelans

Sinaloa’s Cartel-Tied Governor Quits Again, a Day After Resuming Office

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 22 Aug 26  ·  6 events

• 26 Oct 26Non liquet Interim governor was elected Aug 25 and no return was reported before Oct 22, but the evidence is absence of reports.
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Sinaloa’s Cartel-Tied Governor Quits Again, a Day After Resuming Office
• 23 Aug 26Call · 58% likely Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya will remain out of office (on leave, not resuming his duties) for at least 60 consecutive days from his August 22, 2026 second leave request.
• 23 Aug 26No. 54 Sinaloa Governor Rocha Moya Requests Second Leave as Sheinbaum Distances Herself
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 Sinaloa Governor Rocha Returns to Office Despite US Cartel-Ties Indictment
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 Cambodia-US Raids Dismantle Crypto Laundering Network Tied to Sinaloa Cartel

Panama Canal Cuts Daily Transits Again, to an Average 29.5 in October, as Record El Niño Drought Deepens

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 21 Aug 26  ·  29 events

• 26 Oct 26Miss No further cut came: the ACP raised daily slots to 33 on Oct 15 and the Neopanamax draft to 14.94 m on Sep 28, and postponed a planned draft cut.
• 19 Oct 26Miss The ACP eased restrictions instead: advisory A-36-2026 (Sept 28-29) restored 49 ft neopanamax draft and added a tenth neopanamax slot from Oct 15; no further cut found by Oct 17.
• 12 Oct 26Miss No print above $12,000/FEU: Xeneta East Coast $11,523 (Oct 1, flagged as the peak), Drewry Shanghai-New York $10,428 (Oct 1), ICIS $9,600-12,000 range.
• 19 Sep 26Revised to 90% on the record
  The Panama Canal Authority has already proposed cutting October's average daily transits to 29.5, well beyond the call's threshold, after cutting to 32 on September 15 -- the additional reduction this call was watching for has effectively already been announced.
• 19 Sep 26Revised to 75% on the record
  With October's proposed average already down to 29.5 and BIMCO reporting bulker transits off 22% year-on-year since July, the trajectory points further below the 34/day threshold rather than back toward it.
• 19 Sep 26No. 81 Panama Canal Cuts Daily Transits Again, to an Average 29.5 in October, as Record El Niño Drought Deepens
• 17 Sep 26Call · 68% likely The Panama Canal Authority imposes at least one more neopanamax draft cut or daily transit-slot reduction within 30 days of September 17, 2026 (by October 17, 2026).
• 17 Sep 26No. 79 Panama Canal Tightens Transit Limits Again as Record El Niño Drought Deepens
• 15 Sep 26Call · 55% likely Panama Canal average daily transit levels remain below 34 transits per day — its pre-2023-drought long-run norm — as of September 15, 2027.
• 15 Sep 26No. 77 Panama Canal to Cut Transit Slots Further as El Niño Drought Deepens
• 11 Sep 26No. 73 Panama Canal's Drought Outlook Darkens Into 2027 as El Niño Looms
• 10 Sep 26No. 72 Panama Canal Drought Cuts Threaten Up to $10 Billion in CARICOM Imports
• 9 Sep 26Call · 65% likely The Panama Canal Authority will not have restored the Neopanamax lock draft limit above today's held 14.63-meter (48-foot) ceiling within nine months of this postponement (by June 9, 2027).
• 9 Sep 26No. 71 Panama Canal Postpones October Draft Cut as Rains Ease Drought
• 8 Sep 26Revised to 95% on the record
  The Panama Canal Authority's daily transit slots fell from 36 to 34 this month and are set to fall again to 32 starting September 15 -- a further cut beyond the levels in place when this call opened -- as new administrator Ilya Espino de Marotta took office amid a nationwide El Nino emergency declaration.
• 8 Sep 26No. 70 Panama Canal Deepens Transit Cuts as Record-Strength El Niño Takes Hold
• 5 Sep 26No. 67 Panama Canal Holds Draft Limit Rather Than Cutting It as Scheduled October 1
• 4 Sep 26No. 66 Panama Canal Cuts Daily Transits to 34 as El Niño Drought Collides With Hormuz-Driven Traffic Surge
• 2 Sep 26No. 64 Panama Canal Toll Hits Record $5.3 Million as Authority Projects $5.56 Billion FY2027 Revenue
• 31 Aug 26No. 62 Panama Canal Loosens Booking Rules Even as It Deepens Transit Cuts Under Drought Watch
• 30 Aug 26No. 61 Panama Canal Authority Deepens Transit Cuts to 32 Slots a Day as Drought Persists
• 29 Aug 26No. 60 Panama Canal Wait Times Hit 19-Day High as Iran-War Traffic and Drought Squeeze Transits
• 28 Aug 26No. 59 Tanker Pays Record $5.3 Million for Priority Panama Canal Passage as Drought Deepens
• 26 Aug 26No. 57 Panama Canal Authority Orders Deeper September Transit Cuts as Drought Bites
• 25 Aug 26Call · 50% roughly even Asia-to-U.S. East Coast container rates exceed $12,000 per FEU by October 6, 2026, as the Panama Canal's September transit cuts stack onto the existing Iran-war rerouting premium.
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Panama Canal to Cut Daily Transits Twice in September as El Niño Drought Bites
• 21 Aug 26Call · 65% likely The Panama Canal Authority announces a further cut to daily transit slots beyond September's newly set 32/23 levels within 60 days of August 21, 2026.
• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Panama Canal to Cut Daily Transits as Deepening El Niño Drought Drains Gatun Lake
• 21 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Panama Canal to cut daily transit slots as El Niño drought deepens +1 update · latest 28 Aug 26

Liberia Charges Former Vice President Howard-Taylor in $317 Million Cocaine Probe

Updated 26 Oct 26  ·  began 21 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 26 Oct 26Miss The Oct 7 Montserrado grand jury indictment named Howard-Taylor and about a dozen others, but none at ministerial level or higher (LCAA/NSA deputy directors, police, foreign nationals).
• 21 Aug 26Call · 35% unlikely Liberia charges another official at the ministerial level or higher (beyond former VP Jewel Howard-Taylor) in the $317 million cocaine case within 60 days of August 21, 2026.
• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Liberia Charges Former Vice President Howard-Taylor in $317 Million Cocaine Probe

El Salvador sends special forces to Haiti to search for four soldiers missing since an ambush on a Gang Suppression Force convoy

Updated 24 Oct 26  ·  began 24 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 24 Oct 26Call · 50% roughly even All four missing Salvadoran Gang Suppression Force soldiers are confirmed released or recovered alive by 14 November 2026.
• 24 Oct 26No. 116 El Salvador sends special forces to Haiti to search for four soldiers missing since an ambush on a Gang Suppression Force convoy

Taiwan says China is using militia boats for “battlefield preparation” in the western Pacific

Updated 23 Oct 26  ·  began 23 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 23 Oct 26Call · 60% likely Taiwan’s Coast Guard publicly reports at least one further Chinese militia or fishing-militia vessel operating off Taiwan’s Pacific coast by 23 December 2026.
• 23 Oct 26No. 115 Taiwan says China is using militia boats for “battlefield preparation” in the western Pacific

Argentina lists the Sinaloa Cartel, La Nueva Familia Michoacana, the ELN, FARC dissidents and Los Tiguerones as terrorist entities

Updated 23 Oct 26  ·  began 23 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 23 Oct 26Call · 30% unlikely Another South American government newly lists the Sinaloa Cartel or the ELN as a terrorist organization, with a decree dated after 23 October, by 23 December 2026.
• 23 Oct 26No. 115 Argentina lists the Sinaloa Cartel, La Nueva Familia Michoacana, the ELN, FARC dissidents and Los Tiguerones as terrorist entities

Panama Canal posts a record 521 million tons in fiscal 2026 as Gulf-war diversions and Asian demand lift transits 4.1%

Updated 22 Oct 26  ·  began 22 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 22 Oct 26Call · 45% roughly even The Panama Canal Authority reports fiscal 2027 tonnage above fiscal 2026's 521 million PC/UMS tons when it publishes annual results in October 2027.
• 22 Oct 26No. 114 Panama Canal posts a record 521 million tons in fiscal 2026 as Gulf-war diversions and Asian demand lift transits 4.1%

Gangs ambush a Salvadoran armoured vehicle in Haiti, and Bukele launches a rescue operation for the four missing men

Updated 22 Oct 26  ·  began 20 Oct 26  ·  3 events

• 22 Oct 26No. 114 Gangs ambush a Salvadoran armoured vehicle in Haiti, and Bukele launches a rescue operation for the four missing men
• 20 Oct 26Call · 70% likely El Salvador's armed forces or the Gang Suppression Force publicly confirm that all four missing Salvadoran soldiers have been located, alive or dead, by 3 November 2026.
• 20 Oct 26No. 112 Gangs ambush a Salvadoran armoured vehicle in Haiti, leaving four soldiers missing in the biggest attack on the new international force

U.S. orders non-emergency diplomats and families out of Saudi Arabia after a Houthi strike on Dammam airport

Updated 22 Oct 26  ·  began 18 Sep 26  ·  47 events

• 22 Oct 26No. 114 U.S. orders non-emergency diplomats and families out of Saudi Arabia after a Houthi strike on Dammam airport
• 22 Oct 26IMMEDIATE US orders non-emergency diplomats and families out of Saudi Arabia after Houthi strike on Dammam airport
• 19 Oct 26No. 111 Egypt’s top defence body pledges ‘all possible forms of support’ to Saudi Arabia as Houthi attacks widen
• 18 Oct 26No. 110 Egypt’s Sisi asks parliament to back Saudi defences against Houthi attacks as an emergency session convenes
• 17 Oct 26No. 109 Houthis strike Aden airport for the second time in a week as Saudi forces intercept a missile aimed at Yanbu
• 16 Oct 26No. 108 Saudi Arabia says Iran is encouraging Houthi attacks as the campaign on Riyadh’s airport and Aramco enters a second week
• 15 Oct 26Revised to 95% on the record
  A missile struck an office tower at Aramco's Dhahran headquarters on Oct 13; Reuters and AP report it and Saudi authorities described an attack on an administrative building, while attribution to the Houthis rests on their prior threat.
• 15 Oct 26No. 107 Missile hits a tower at Aramco’s Dhahran headquarters as Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia reach the kingdom’s energy core
• 14 Oct 26Call · 45% roughly even The Houthis claim, or Saudi Arabia confirms, an attack on Aramco's Dhahran headquarters or a Riyadh refinery by 2026-10-31.
• 14 Oct 26No. 106 Saudi-led coalition strikes Houthi sites in Sanaa, Hodeidah and Dhamar as the Houthis threaten Dhahran and a Riyadh refinery
• 13 Oct 26No. 105 Riyadh airport stays shut through October 17 as the Houthis threaten the U.S. if it joins Saudi strikes
• 13 Oct 26IMMEDIATE Saudi-led coalition strikes Houthi sites in Sanaa, Hodeidah and Dhamar, resuming its Yemen air campaign after the Riyadh airport attacks
• 12 Oct 26No. 104 Second Houthi strike hits Riyadh airport terminal a day after the 12-death attack; airport stays closed
• 11 Oct 26No. 103 Houthi strike on Riyadh airport kills 12 and wounds about 300 as Trump weighs joining the war
• 11 Oct 26IMMEDIATE Houthi strike on Riyadh airport terminal kills 12, wounds over 300; Saudi closure extended and a second airport hit
• 10 Oct 26IMMEDIATE Riyadh airport attacked again and closed for hours; FlyDubai, Lufthansa Group, Air India and PIA suspend Saudi flights +1 update · latest 11 Oct 26
• 8 Oct 26Call · 45% roughly even Saudi civil aviation or an airport operator announces a suspension of all commercial flights at any Saudi airport for at least 24 hours following a Houthi attack by November 8, 2026.
• 8 Oct 26No. 100 Houthi strikes on Saudi airports in Abha and Riyadh kill three, as the Yemen war widens into civil aviation
• 8 Oct 26PRIORITY Houthi missile and drone strikes hit Riyadh and Abha airports, killing 3, as Saudi-Yemen war widens +2 updates · latest 10 Oct 26
• 6 Oct 26No. 98 Saudi-backed Yemeni forces say they have retaken the coast around Bab el-Mandeb; the Houthis call the claim baseless
• 6 Oct 26IMMEDIATE Yemeni government forces retake Bab el-Mandeb Strait from Houthis
• 5 Oct 26No. 97 Yemen's government announces an offensive to retake all Houthi-held territory as the Houthis claim new strikes on Aramco sites
• 4 Oct 26No. 96 Houthis hit a Saudi oil facility south of Riyadh as Saudi jets strike Sanaa; Houthi forces reportedly hold Yemen’s Red Sea coast and Bab el-Mandeb
• 4 Oct 26IMMEDIATE Yemen's government announces offensive to retake Houthi territory as Houthis cut Taiz supply route and claim strikes on Aramco +2 updates · latest 5 Oct 26
• 3 Oct 26Call · 45% roughly even Between October 3 and November 15, 2026, Saudi-backed Yemeni ground forces begin an offensive toward Bab el-Mandeb, confirmed by a Saudi or coalition statement or by advances reported by at least two major wire services.
• 3 Oct 26No. 95 Saudi Arabia reportedly plans a Yemeni-led ground offensive to retake Bab el-Mandeb from the Houthis
• 27 Sep 26No. 89 Saudi Arabia demands Hormuz return to pre-war status as Iran’s Guard vows to “change the geography of the conflict”
• 27 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Riyadh orders schools to remote learning for a week as Houthi drones, missiles target Saudi capital
• 26 Sep 26No. 88 Trump warns Xi that Chinese support for Iran is "totally unacceptable" as Washington summit wraps
• 26 Sep 26No. 88 Houthis complete seizure of Yemen's Red Sea coast as Trump rejects Iran's Hormuz reopening offer
• 26 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Yemen's president declares general mobilization as Houthis complete seizure of Red Sea coast
• 26 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Trump rejects Iran's 7-day Hormuz reopening offer, expects renewed strikes after midterms
• 25 Sep 26No. 87 80 nations demand Hormuz reopening as France moves to shield Saudi oil facilities
• 25 Sep 26IMMEDIATE France to deploy troops, air defenses to protect Saudi oil terminal, first direct European military entry into Hormuz-Red Sea war
• 24 Sep 26No. 86 US and Iran hold first direct contact since war began, but Pezeshkian tells UN Iran "did not bend the knee"
• 23 Sep 26No. 85 U.S. and Iranian Officials Hold First Direct Talks Since War Began, as Trump Warns at UN He Will "Annihilate" Iran
• 23 Sep 26No. 85 Taiwanese Official Warns Xi Will Offer Only "Empty Promises" Ahead of Wednesday's Summit With Trump
• 23 Sep 26No. 85 Houthis Claim Deadly Saudi Strikes as Yemen's Displacement Crisis Deepens
• 23 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Houthis accuse Saudi Arabia of strikes killing prison inmates, children as Riyadh's offensive draws in U.S. targeting support +1 update · latest 23 Sep 26
• 23 Sep 26IMMEDIATE US and Iran hold first direct talks since war began, hours after Trump threatens to 'annihilate' Iran at UN
• 22 Sep 26No. 84 Iran Warns of Imminent US Strikes as Trump Cuts Short Camp David Trip; Projectile Hits Tanker Entering Hormuz
• 22 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Iran offers to reopen Strait of Hormuz within 7 days if US eases military pressure
• 21 Sep 26No. 83 Iran Warns of Fresh US Attack as Trump Cuts Short Camp David Trip, State Department Issues Mideast Alert
• 21 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Unknown projectile strikes tanker entering Strait of Hormuz, two crew injured, UKMTO confirms +1 update · latest 21 Sep 26
• 21 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Trump reportedly called off imminent Yemen strikes as Houthis push to seize Red Sea highlands, cutting off last Saudi-backed forces
• 21 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Iran warns of US attack preparations as Trump cuts short Camp David trip, State Dept issues Middle East alert
• 18 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Iran claims strike on Togo-flagged tanker Trend in Strait of Hormuz, warns of 'destruction' for unauthorized passage

Two men re-arrested in Britain on suspicion of assisting Iran over the RAF Fairford air-base plot

Updated 21 Oct 26  ·  began 21 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 21 Oct 26Call · 50% roughly even UK authorities charge at least one of the two men re-arrested over the RAF Fairford incident with any criminal offence by 18 November 2026.
• 21 Oct 26No. 113 Two men re-arrested in Britain on suspicion of assisting Iran over the RAF Fairford air-base plot

Drone strike on Abyei market kills dozens as South Sudan summons Sudan’s ambassador

Updated 21 Oct 26  ·  began 21 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 21 Oct 26Call · 12% very unlikely South Sudan formally expels or recalls an ambassador over the October 2026 Abyei drone strike by 20 November 2026.
• 21 Oct 26No. 113 Drone strike on Abyei market kills dozens as South Sudan summons Sudan’s ambassador

Haiti’s 13 December elections are postponed indefinitely as the UN reports nearly 1.5 million displaced

Updated 20 Oct 26  ·  began 20 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 20 Oct 26Call · 25% unlikely Haiti's electoral council or transitional authorities announce a new date for the postponed national elections by 31 December 2026.
• 20 Oct 26No. 112 Haiti’s 13 December elections are postponed indefinitely as the UN reports nearly 1.5 million displaced

Frontex: irregular EU border crossings fall by about a third in nine months, but the Western Mediterranean grows 26%

Updated 20 Oct 26  ·  began 20 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 20 Oct 26Call · 70% likely Frontex's preliminary January–October data show Western Mediterranean crossings at least 20% above the same period of 2025.
• 20 Oct 26No. 112 Frontex: irregular EU border crossings fall by about a third in nine months, but the Western Mediterranean grows 26%

Chinese coast guard ship enters Taiwan’s restricted waters at Dongsha with AIS off; Taipei counts 12 such intrusions this year

Updated 20 Oct 26  ·  began 14 Oct 26  ·  3 events

• 20 Oct 26No. 112 Chinese coast guard ship enters Taiwan’s restricted waters at Dongsha with AIS off; Taipei counts 12 such intrusions this year
• 18 Oct 26No. 110 Two Chinese coast guard ships enter restricted waters around Taiwan’s Pratas Islands
• 14 Oct 26No. 106 China warns Taiwan it must ‘bear all consequences’ after a coast-guard water cannon was used on a mainland fishing boat near Pratas

Oman Postpones Hormuz Shipping-Safety Talks After Fatal Strike on Iranian Vessel

Updated 19 Oct 26  ·  began 2 Jul 26  ·  233 events

• 19 Oct 26Non liquet No reporting found of a further Gulf state declining or withdrawing from the Iran-Oman framework; talks were shelved and Qatar engaged, but coverage is too thin to decide.
• 12 Oct 26Non liquet No coordinates or listing found in available coverage (IRGC said coordinates would follow), but coverage of Iranian notices is thin.
• 28 Sep 26Hit By Sept 23 no Western wire had independently confirmed damage to DDG-119/DDG-53 (CENTCOM said both ships evaded the Sept 5 missiles with no damage) or Iran's claimed drone 'capture'; Reuters could not verify the capture claim, the Pentagon didn't address it, and the only on-record US-side account (a Navy officer telling CNBC the drone 'malfunctioned', plus builder Anduril confirming a loss but downplaying it) undercut rather than confirmed Iran's version -- CENTCOM stayed silent on the drone claim specifically until Sept 28, after the window closed.
• 21 Sep 26Hit CENTCOM confirmed that on or around September 8, 2026, IRGC forces launched a second round of ballistic missiles at a US Navy warship (missiles missed, no casualties), prompting US strikes that sank five more Iranian tankers -- a direct repeat of the September 5 pattern well inside the 14-day window.
• 21 Sep 26Hit The UAE's indefinite trade and financial suspension on Iran, imposed August 19 after the missile incident, remained formally in effect through the window with no reopening or de-escalation statement; UAE officials as of early September still described resumption as conditional on Iran ending strikes and restoring freedom of navigation.
• 14 Sep 26Hit No accession announcement by the UAE or Oman was found through the September 13 deadline; the Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance (founded July 30 with 13-14 states) excluded both from the outset, consistent with Oman's Tehran-mediator role and the UAE's own Hormuz tanker-loss exposure.
• 14 Sep 26No. 76 Oman Postpones Hormuz Shipping-Safety Talks After Fatal Strike on Iranian Vessel
• 14 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Oman postpones Monday's Hormuz shipping-safety talks with Iran and Gulf states after fatal strike on Iranian vessel
• 13 Sep 26Call · 55% likely At least one additional Gulf state beyond Bahrain publicly declines to attend or withdraws from the Iran-Oman Hormuz shipping-management framework within 30 days of the September 14, 2026 Oman talks (by October 13, 2026).
• 13 Sep 26No. 75 Iran Confirms Its Own Vessel Was Struck in Hormuz, One Dead, Day Before Oman Talks
• 13 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Iran confirms Iranian vessel killed one of 10 crew in Hormuz strike, day before Oman talks
• 13 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Vessel struck by unidentified projectile in Strait of Hormuz, UKMTO says, hours before Iran-Gulf Hormuz talks in Oman
• 9 Sep 26Revised to 90% on the record
  The IRGC said it fired on a US warship near the Strait of Hormuz for the second and third time in three days (per CENTCOM, which says the vessel evaded both attempts) and separately claimed missile strikes on two US Navy destroyers, DDG-119 and DDG-53, in Hormuz on September 9 -- unconfirmed by Washington but consistent with a now-repeated pattern of Iranian attempts on US Navy vessels within the call's 14-day window.
• 9 Sep 26Call · 72% likely A Western wire service (Reuters, AP, or AFP) does not independently confirm Iran's claimed September 9 missile strikes on US Navy destroyers DDG-119 and DDG-53, or its claimed capture of a US submarine drone near the Strait of Hormuz, within 14 days (by September 23, 2026).
• 9 Sep 26No. 71 US Destroys Five More Iranian Tankers; Iran Claims Strikes on Jordan Base, US Destroyers
• 9 Sep 26FLASH Jordan confirms it intercepted 18 of 20 Iranian missiles at Al Azraq base; Iran claims strikes on two US destroyers, eight tankers, and capture of a US submarine drone in Hormuz +3 updates · latest 10 Sep 26
• 9 Sep 26FLASH US destroys 5 Iranian tankers in Gulf of Oman and at Kharg Island; Iran reportedly strikes US base in Jordan
• 8 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Iran claims missile strike on US warship near Hormuz, details Gulf exclusion zone as tensions harden
• 7 Sep 26Hit A further Houthi-claimed strike occurred within the 14-day window: an Aug 24 ballistic-missile attack on the Saudi-flagged/Bahri-operated tanker Amzan off Yanbu, part of a continuous attack pattern (Aug 9 Jizan, Aug 20 Najran/Aramco, Aug 24 tanker) rather than a two-week quiet period.
• 7 Sep 26Hit Through the window, Saudi-backed Yemeni government (PLC) forces led the ground offensive against Houthi territory (Hodeidah/Hais, Taiz), retaking territory, while Saudi Arabia's role stayed limited to airstrikes, weapons and coalition-building — no confirmed Saudi National Guard or regular-army units operating inside Houthi-held territory.
• 7 Sep 26Call · 55% likely Iran publishes specific coordinates or begins actually enforcing (a sanctions listing or interdiction tied to it) the Hormuz exclusion zone described by Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei, rather than leaving it a stated intention, within 30 days of the September 7, 2026 announcement (by October 7, 2026).
• 7 Sep 26No. 69 Iran's Security Chief Says Tehran Will Declare a Hormuz Exclusion Zone, Sanctioning Any Ship That Enters
• 7 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Iran's security chief says Tehran will declare Hormuz exclusion zone, sanctioning any ship that enters
• 6 Sep 26Call · 60% likely Iran carries out at least one more missile or drone attack on a U.S. Navy vessel in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Strait of Hormuz within 14 days of the September 5, 2026 exchange (by September 19, 2026).
• 6 Sep 26No. 68 U.S. Destroys Three Iranian Tankers After Iran Fires on Two Navy Warships Near Hormuz
• 6 Sep 26FLASH Iran strikes 3 tankers and 3 US-linked vessels in Hormuz, warns 'proportionate responses' are over
• 5 Sep 26FLASH US strikes and disables 3 Iranian oil tankers after Iran fires missiles at Navy carrier group
• 5 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Iranian tanker reportedly struck at Kharg Island, Iran's main oil export terminal
• 3 Sep 26No. 65 US Logs “Record Day” in Hormuz War, Escorting Largest-Ever Convoy While Striking Some 60 Iranian Targets
• 3 Sep 26IMMEDIATE US logs 'record day' in Hormuz war: ~60 Iran targets struck while escorting largest-ever 40-ship, 18M-barrel convoy
• 2 Sep 26No. 64 US Strikes Iranian Mine-Laying Assets Near Hormuz; Iran’s “Decisive Operation” Hits Jordan Base, Gulf Tankers
• 2 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Bahri confirms 2 Filipino crew killed in Iranian strike on tanker Sidr in Strait of Hormuz
• 2 Sep 26IMMEDIATE US strikes kill at least 18 in Iran as IRGC retaliates against bases in Jordan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq
• 2 Sep 26IMMEDIATE US strikes Iranian rocket launchers preparing to mine Strait of Hormuz; Iran vows retaliatory 'decisive operation' +2 updates · latest 4 Sep 26
• 1 Sep 26No. 63 UAE Intercepts Iranian Drone Over Its Waters, Calls It a “Dangerous Escalation”
• 1 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Two Saudi, South Korean oil tankers struck by projectiles in Strait of Hormuz as Iran war hostilities resume
• 1 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Iran drone targets UAE territorial waters; Abu Dhabi calls it a 'dangerous escalation'
• 31 Aug 26Hit On August 9 — two days after Saudi Arabia's warning — the Houthis struck the Saudi Aramco refinery in Jizan, with military spokesman Yahya Saree claiming a 'precise' hit on the facility, squarely within the Gulf energy-infrastructure category rather than the established tanker/military-base target set.
• 31 Aug 26Hit Daily commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz never approached 25/day despite Iran-Oman technical talks: Kpler-type counts show single-to-low-double-digit transits throughout August (around 12.4/day average Aug 1-19, falling to single digits by Aug 25), versus a pre-war baseline near 130/day.
• 31 Aug 26No. 62 US Strikes Iranian Launchers on Larak Island; IRGC Missiles on Jordan Bases All Intercepted
• 31 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US strikes Iran's Larak Island; IRGC retaliates with missiles on two Jordan air bases
• 30 Aug 26Revised to 80% on the record
  CENTCOM disclosed for the first time that it has redirected 82 commercial vessels, disabled three, and boarded two under its blockade posture, while independent tracking put daily Hormuz transits at a three-month low — both point further away from a rebound to 25+ ships/day before the August 31 deadline.
• 26 Aug 26No. 57 Houthis Strike Saudi Tanker Near Yanbu, Threaten to Widen Red Sea Blockade
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Houthis Strike a Third Saudi Tanker Near Yanbu, Extending Red Sea Blockade
• 24 Aug 26Miss The Saudi-led coalition's response hit Houthi military/telecom sites in Hodeidah province, explicitly tied to shipping attacks, not Marib or Hadhramaut — leaving the ground offensive there unanswered.
• 24 Aug 26Miss The US-Iran memorandum-of-understanding deadline expired Aug 17 with no signed instrument — talks deadlocked over Hormuz shipping-route control and frozen funds; no IAEA-verified end to Iran's nuclear program or full commercial Hormuz reopening occurred by Aug 23.
• 24 Aug 26No. 55 Houthi Strike Sets Saudi Tanker Ablaze Off Yanbu, Firming Attribution for an Earlier Flash
• 24 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis claim ballistic-missile strike on Saudi VLCC in Red Sea, confirming targeted campaign
• 24 Aug 26PRIORITY Tanker struck by unidentified projectile, catches fire off Saudi Arabia's Red Sea coast +1 update · latest 24 Aug 26
• 21 Aug 26Revised to 95% on the record
  Houthis claimed drone strikes on Najran airport and an Aramco facility on August 20, following the August 8-9 claimed strike on Aramco's Jazan refinery — the call only requires an attack carried out on Gulf energy/airport infrastructure, which has now happened at least twice inside the window regardless of Saudi confirmation of damage.
• 21 Aug 26Call · 55% likely The Houthi movement carries out at least one further attack on Saudi Arabia within 14 days of August 20, 2026's claimed Najran airport and Aramco strikes.
• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Houthis Claim Drone Strikes on Saudi Airport and Aramco Site, Threaten Naval Blockade
• 20 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis claim drone strikes on Najran Airport, Aramco site in Saudi Arabia
• 19 Aug 26Call · 75% likely The UAE's trade suspension on Iran stays formally in effect for at least 30 days without a negotiated reopening.
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 Unmanned cargo ship destroyed in new Red Sea strike off Yemen, second attack this week
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 UAE severs all trade with Iran after accusing Tehran of firing missiles into its waters
• 19 Aug 26IMMEDIATE UAE suspends all trade and financial dealings with Iran after accusing Tehran of missile fire
• 18 Aug 26Revised to 75% on the record
  The 60-day US-Iran MOU formally expired August 18 with no deal and no extension in sight, and Trump renewed threats against mediator Oman -- removing the near-term diplomatic path that could have restored transits, while Monday's count (six ships vs. a 10-day average of 11, zero VLCC/LNG movement) shows transits still nowhere near 25/day.
• 18 Aug 26No. 49 US-Iran truce deadline lapses with no deal as Trump threatens to bomb Oman
• 18 Aug 26No. 49 Houthis claim strike on Saudi warship as Yemen's Mocha port stays shut
• 18 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Saudi Aramco resumes large-scale Hormuz oil exports, first crack in blockade since near-total curb declared +1 update · latest 19 Aug 26
• 17 Aug 26Hit Aramco pushed the Jazan restart from Aug 15 to a tentative Aug 30 per IIR Energy reporting (Aug 10-11), and Bloomberg reported a further Houthi drone strike on the same facility around Aug 13 — both a delay announcement and a third strike, well before the Aug 15 target, with no Aramco statement confirming units back online.
• 17 Aug 26Miss Iran-aligned Iraqi factions set and then let an Aug 7 retaliation deadline lapse without attacking — Badr Organisation leader Hadi Al Ameri publicly urged fighters to 'postpone any reaction' — so no confirmed rocket/drone/IED attack on a U.S., Saudi diplomatic, or Saudi-linked target materialized by Aug 12, the outcome the call's own counter-signal language flagged as falsifying it (the claim required an actual retaliatory strike, not just a threat).
• 17 Aug 26Miss On Aug 9, 2026, Houthi forces struck Saudi Arabia's Aramco refinery at Jazan with drones, causing a fire — a second major Houthi strike on Saudi territory inside the 30-day window, directly firing the counter-signal.
• 17 Aug 26Revised to 95% on the record
  Hormuz transits collapsed to 5 vessels Saturday and zero Sunday, versus 31 the prior weekend, per ship-tracking data cited by Reuters -- a new low that pushes this call (transits stay below 25/day through August 31) further from being overturned.
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Strait of Hormuz shipping collapses to near zero as the war grinds toward stalemate
• 17 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis claim ballistic-missile strike on Saudi military landing ship, four escort boats off Mocha
• 17 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump threatens to bomb Oman if it 'gets in the way' of ending Iran war +1 update · latest 18 Aug 26
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 UAE reports a fourth vessel struck in the Strait of Hormuz as US preps "economic isolation" sanctions on Iran
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 Taiwan logs Chinese sorties as analysts float an Iran-style blockade playbook for the strait
• 16 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Yemen's Mokha port suspends all operations after fresh Houthi missile barrage +1 update · latest 19 Aug 26
• 15 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Neither the UAE nor Oman formally joins Saudi Arabia's new Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance within 30 days of its August 14, 2026 launch.
• 15 Aug 26No. 46 Iran rejects Trump's Hormuz "territory" threat as Saudi Arabia launches a 13-nation maritime alliance without the UAE or Oman
• 15 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump vows to formally declare Strait of Hormuz US territory; Iran rejects claim as blockade holds near-total +2 updates · latest 16 Aug 26
• 14 Aug 26Revised to 88% on the record
  CNBC-cited shipping data show only three Hormuz transits in the 24 hours ending August 12, far below the 25-ship threshold and reinforcing that transits stay suppressed through August 31.
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 Iran strikes two more UAE-linked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz as daily transits collapse to a handful of ships
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 Houthis claim a second drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery in five days as the restart target slips to August 30
• 14 Aug 26IMMEDIATE UAE accuses Iran of attacking two ADNOC tankers in Strait of Hormuz
• 12 Aug 26Revised to 90% on the record
  Kpler ship-tracking data cited by Reuters put Monday's Strait of Hormuz traffic at just six to seven vessels -- far below the roughly 11-12/day recent average and well under the 25-ship threshold this call bets against -- reinforcing the call with nearly three weeks still to run before August 31.
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 Houthis kill six in a double-missile strike on Red Sea rescuers as US disables a blockade-running container ship in the Gulf of Oman
• 12 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis fire second missile at rescuers after Red Sea strike, doubling Tihamah death toll to six +1 update · latest 13 Aug 26
• 11 Aug 26Revised to 35% on the record
  Trump countered Iran's reparations demand with his own compensation claim rather than engaging Tehran's terms -- another round of dueling public demands, not direct negotiation, pushing further from a signable deal by August 23.
• 11 Aug 26No. 42 Trump counters Iran's Hormuz reparations demand with his own compensation claim
• 11 Aug 26No. 42 Houthis strike Yemen's al-Makha port for a third straight day, killing at least seven
• 11 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US missile strike hits container ship off Pakistan as blockade enforcement expands into Gulf of Oman
• 11 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis kill three crew in first fatal Red Sea shipping strike since Iran war began +3 updates · latest 12 Aug 26
• 11 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis widen Yemen offensive, hitting al-Makha again and expanding strikes to Marib
• 11 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran lays out formal Hormuz-reopening terms; Trump counters with his own reparations demand +1 update · latest 13 Aug 26
• 10 Aug 26Hit The Houthis continued striking Saudi-linked shipping beyond the Jul 22 attacks, claiming up to eight tanker attacks since their blockade announcement, including the tanker Wafa off Yanbu on Aug 5 -- within the two-week window and with no Saudi safe-passage deal or Houthi stand-down.
• 10 Aug 26Call · 55% likely Saudi Aramco will not have resumed operations at its Jazan refinery units by its previously stated August 15 target, following the second Houthi-claimed drone strike on the facility on August 9.
• 10 Aug 26No. 41 Houthis strike Yemen's Mokha port a second time overnight, clouding Aramco's Jazan restart timeline
• 10 Aug 26No. 41 CENTCOM redirects a record 55 ships enforcing Hormuz blockade as Iran rules out resuming US talks
• 10 Aug 26IMMEDIATE CENTCOM: US has now redirected 55 ships enforcing Hormuz blockade as Iran rules out resuming talks +3 updates · latest 18 Aug 26
• 9 Aug 26Revised to 82% on the record
  The August 8 ADNOC tanker strike and Iran's maximalist reopening demands both point away from a near-term traffic rebound, keeping daily Hormuz transits on track to stay below 25 ships/day through August 31.
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Iran lists maximalist demands to reopen Hormuz as the IRGC strikes another Emirati tanker
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Houthis claim a second drone strike on Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery in fifteen days
• 9 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis strike Yemeni government port of Mokha, killing at least 7, hours after hitting Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery
• 9 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthi drone strike sparks fire at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery, second blaze in two weeks +2 updates · latest 14 Aug 26
• 9 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iranian missile strikes UAE tanker in Hormuz as Tehran hardens reopening demands +1 update · latest 10 Aug 26
• 8 Aug 26Revised to 5% on the record
  Houthi missile and drone fire wounded 11 people in Saudi Arabia's Najran province on August 6-7 -- a clear second major Houthi strike on Saudi territory within the call's 30-day window from the July 13 Abha attack -- while Riyadh separately warned of a further coordinated attack on Gulf energy, port, and airport infrastructure, leaving almost no room for this call to hold.
• 8 Aug 26Call · 55% likely The Houthi movement or an Iran-aligned Iraqi militia carries out at least one attack specifically on Gulf energy, port, or airport infrastructure within three weeks of Saudi Arabia's August 7 warning, by August 28, 2026.
• 8 Aug 26No. 39 Houthi strikes wound 11 in Saudi Arabia's Najran province as Riyadh warns of a coordinated attack on Gulf infrastructure
• 7 Aug 26Call · 65% likely The Saudi-led coalition conducts at least one direct airstrike on Houthi positions in Marib or Hadhramaut province within two weeks of the August 6, 2026 Houthi ground offensive.
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Iran publishes a draft Hormuz transit plan that would bar US and Israeli ships and charge steep tolls
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Houthi ground offensive kills at least 30 Yemeni troops in the deadliest fighting since the 2022 truce
• 7 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthi strikes wound 11 in Saudi Arabia as Riyadh warns of imminent coordinated attack on Gulf energy, port, and airport infrastructure
• 7 Aug 26IMMEDIATE First Israeli deaths since Hezbollah truce as IED kills 2 soldiers, sparking retaliatory strikes
• 7 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran publishes restrictive draft Hormuz transit plan barring US, Israeli ships; oil jumps +1 update · latest 8 Aug 26
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Houthis strike a second Saudi tanker within hours, claiming a ninth vessel hit since their blockade began
• 6 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthi ground offensive kills at least 30 Yemeni government troops in deadliest fighting since 2022 truce
• 6 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis strike second Saudi tanker Daisy in Gulf of Aden hours after Wafa hit, claim 9th vessel struck since blockade began +1 update · latest 6 Aug 26
• 5 Aug 26Revised to 78% on the record
  Tuesday's Rubio 'progress' claims on a Hormuz reopening deal have not moved actual UKMTO-tracked traffic, which is still running near a trickle, and fresh violence (the Faize Noore Oliya sinking and a new Houthi claim against the Saudi tanker Wafaa) reinforces continued suppression rather than a rebound toward 25+ ships/day by August 31.
• 5 Aug 26No. 36 Iran and Oman claim progress on reopening Hormuz while Iran's foreign ministry denies any direct US talks
• 5 Aug 26No. 36 A suspected Houthi strike sinks an Indian vessel off Yemen as Houthis separately claim a new hit on a Saudi tanker
• 5 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis vow to expand attacks into northern Red Sea, targeting tankers rerouted toward Suez
• 5 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Houthis claim missile strike on Saudi oil tanker Wafa off Yanbu, 8th tanker hit since blockade began
• 5 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran and Oman report progress on deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz, though US-Iran terms remain unresolved +4 updates · latest 6 Aug 26
• 4 Aug 26Revised to 72% on the record
  A fourth maritime-security incident near the Musandam Peninsula in five days (the Minoan Pioneer strike, Aug 3, with a crew member missing) and Saudi Arabia standing up a defensive shipping coalition both point to continued suppression of transit volumes through August 31 rather than a rebound above 25 ships a day.
• 4 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Indian-flagged vessel sinks after Red Sea attack off Yemen; Houthis blamed, all 14 crew rescued
• 3 Aug 26Miss The conditional trigger fired — CENTCOM struck Iranian power-generation infrastructure around July 17 — and the Houthis then followed through, claiming missile attacks on the Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla (July 22) and NCC Ghazal (July 28), both in the Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb corridor within the window.
• 3 Aug 26Hit Kuwait avoided a formal rationing decree: its Electricity and Water Ministry urged voluntary conservation during the strikes and imposed only a precautionary bottled-water purchase cap that officials explicitly said was 'not linked to any shortage' — no mandatory rationing order or multi-day supply interruption materialized by August 1.
• 3 Aug 26Hit Kuwait reported a fatality: an Iranian strike on July 30 hit a Chinese company's building in northern Kuwait, killing a subcontractor worker, per Kuwait's Defense Ministry and the Chinese Embassy — satisfying the call within the window (Qatar's July 17 shrapnel injuries did not rise to a fatality).
• 3 Aug 26Hit No confirmed direct UAE military strike or reprisal against Iranian territory, forces, or assets in the two weeks after the July 14 tanker strike; the UAE limited its response to condemnation and a 'reserves full right to respond' statement, continuing the operational restraint it held through the rest of the war.
• 3 Aug 26Miss The ceasefire framework had already broken down by early-to-mid July; the US and Iran traded strikes through the month (Iranian strikes hit Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Jordan, and UAE-flagged tankers; US ran at least 8 consecutive nights of strikes), and Bloomberg reported Hormuz shipping traffic dwindling, not recovering, as of July 16 — both halves of the claim failed by July 31.
• 3 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran denies Trump's claim of direct US talks, says only negotiating Hormuz safe passage with Oman +4 updates · latest 5 Aug 26
• 2 Aug 26Call · 50% roughly even The U.S. and Iran will sign or otherwise formally finalize an agreement matching the terms Trump described on August 1-2 (full Hormuz reopening plus a verified end to Iran's nuclear weapons program) within three weeks, by August 23.
• 2 Aug 26Call · 78% likely Saudi Arabia will not commit its own ground troops into Houthi-held Yemen territory (as distinct from backing a Yemeni-government-forces-led push) within 30 days of the reported mobilization.
• 2 Aug 26No. 33 Trump pauses planned strike on Iran's energy infrastructure, conditions relief on Hormuz reopening
• 2 Aug 26No. 33 Saudi Arabia reportedly mobilizes for a possible ground push into Houthi-held Yemen
• 2 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Saudi Arabia mobilizes for possible ground invasion of Houthi-held Yemen
• 2 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump pauses planned US-Israel strike on Iran's energy sites, conditions relief on rapid Hormuz reopening and nuclear deal +1 update · latest 3 Aug 26
• 1 Aug 26No. 32 U.S. and possibly Israel prepare to strike Iran's energy infrastructure as soon as this weekend
• 1 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US and Israel preparing to strike Iran's energy infrastructure, possibly this weekend
• 31 Jul 26No. 31 US strikes Iran directly as Tehran retaliates against Kuwait and Jordan, widening the war
• 31 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Saudi Arabia forms 14-nation maritime coalition to secure Bab el-Mandeb and Red Sea shipping
• 30 Jul 26FLASH Iran strikes Chinese-run building in Kuwait, killing a worker, hours after Jordan downs Iranian missiles
• 30 Jul 26FLASH US strikes Iran directly, hitting dozens of IRGC targets inside the country, after Tuesday's missile attack on US forces
• 29 Jul 26Revised to 94% on the record
  Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree claimed a further missile strike on a Saudi-linked tanker in the Bab el-Mandeb corridor on July 28, with UKMTO confirming the vessel's master reported an explosion -- the follow-on strike this call anticipated, though vessel and crew were reported safe.
• 29 Jul 26Call · 68% likely An Iran-aligned Iraqi militia faction (the Islamic Resistance in Iraq or another Popular Mobilization Forces-aligned group) will carry out at least one retaliatory strike on a U.S. or Saudi-linked target within two weeks of the July 29 U.S.-Saudi strikes on militia positions across Iraq.
• 29 Jul 26No. 29 U.S.-Saudi strikes on Iran-backed militias across Iraq kill at least 20, Baghdad opens probe
• 29 Jul 26FLASH Iran strikes three oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, the first direct hit on Hormuz shipping since the strike pause
• 29 Jul 26FLASH US and Saudi Arabia strike Iran-backed militias in Iraq, breaking strike pause, after intercepted Iranian missile attack on US forces
• 29 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Houthis declare naval blockade of Saudi shipping, strike tanker with ballistic missiles as Red Sea crisis widens +2 updates · latest 30 Jul 26
• 28 Jul 26No. 28 Saudi Arabia intercepts Iraq-launched drones near Riyadh as Yemen's FM warns Houthis want to copy Iran's Hormuz playbook
• 28 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Drone strikes reach Riyadh as Iraqi militias join Houthis, who vow to replicate Iran's Hormuz playbook in the Red Sea +1 update · latest 28 Jul 26
• 27 Jul 26Call · 65% likely Strait of Hormuz daily commercial vessel transits will not climb back above 25 ships a day by August 31, despite the Iran-Oman technical talks on safe passage.
• 27 Jul 26No. 27 Iran-Oman technical talks on reopening Hormuz advance, but shipping stays near-empty
• 27 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran rules out talks with Washington as drones test fragile Hormuz pause; oil swings 9.5% +1 update · latest 27 Jul 26
• 27 Jul 26IMMEDIATE US pauses Iran strikes for second night as Iran-Oman talks open on reopening Hormuz +1 update · latest 27 Jul 26
• 26 Jul 26No. 26 Houthis strike Saudi Aramco's Jazan and Yanbu oil sites; U.S. holds off hitting Iran a second night
• 26 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Ukraine strikes Iranian vessel in Caspian Sea, opening a new front in the widening Iran war +1 update · latest 27 Jul 26
• 25 Jul 26No. 25 U.S. pauses strikes on Iran after 13 consecutive nights, even as Trump weighs a “massive attack”
• 25 Jul 26No. 25 Saudi Arabia strikes Houthi-held Hodeidah, breaking a 2022 truce, as a Houthi missile sets the Jazan refinery ablaze
• 25 Jul 26FLASH Houthis strike Saudi oil hubs Jazan and Yanbu in first reprisal since Saudi Arabia entered the war +5 updates · latest 27 Jul 26
• 25 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Saudi Arabia strikes Houthi-held Hodeidah directly, entering the war for the first time
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 Trump says he's “close” to a “massive” new strike on Iran as Bab el-Mandeb blockade turns live and oil tops $100
• 24 Jul 26IMMEDIATE US strikes widen to Iran's Caspian coast; Iran hits US Fifth Fleet infrastructure in Bahrain
• 24 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Trump says he's 'close' to ordering a 'massive attack' on Iran, bigger than the war's opening strikes
• 23 Jul 26Revised to 3% on the record
  The no-attack claim is now essentially overtaken by events: the Houthis struck the Encelia and Layla on July 22, the first confirmed hit on commercial shipping in the corridor since the blockade was declared.
• 23 Jul 26Call · 72% likely The Houthis will strike at least one more Saudi-linked commercial vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea corridor within two weeks of the July 22 attacks on the Encelia and Layla.
• 23 Jul 26No. 23 Houthis strike two Saudi oil tankers in first attack since declaring Red Sea blockade
• 23 Jul 26FLASH Houthis strike Saudi oil tanker Encelia off Jizan, turning the Bab el-Mandeb blockade live +5 updates · latest 24 Jul 26
• 22 Jul 26Revised to 30% on the record
  Saudi-bound tankers are now making confirmed U-turns rather than testing the blockade, and war-risk insurance has roughly doubled to about 0.75% of ship value -- the market is already pricing the threat as credible before any vessel has actually been struck, raising the odds a test-case attack follows if a ship does not comply.
• 22 Jul 26Revised to 60% on the record
  Iran struck U.S.-linked sites in Bahrain (Sheikh Isa Air Base accommodation, an Amazon data facility) and launched drone attacks on three U.S. bases in Kuwait on July 21-22, the most direct hits on host-nation soil yet, though no military or civilian fatality in Bahrain, Kuwait, or Qatar has been confirmed.
• 22 Jul 26No. 22 Iran strikes Bahrain and Kuwait as Houthi Red Sea blockade turns from threat to demonstrated risk
• 22 Jul 26FLASH Strait of Hormuz traffic collapses to a trickle as Houthis complete missile, drone strike prep on Red Sea shipping
• 22 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Trump vows US will destroy an Iranian bridge or power plant for every ship Iran hits in Hormuz
• 22 Jul 26FLASH Iran strikes Bahrain and Kuwait, hitting US-linked sites, after fresh US strikes on Iran's south
• 21 Jul 26Revised to 35% on the record
  The Houthis moved from posture to declared action: they announced an immediate naval blockade of Saudi Arabia via Bab el-Mandeb on July 20, framed as retaliation for a Saudi-led strike on Sanaa airport, independent of the U.S.-grid trigger this call's premise turned on — lowering the odds Red Sea/Bab el-Mandeb shipping goes two weeks without an actual attack.
• 21 Jul 26No. 21 IRGC strikes third tanker in 36 hours as Houthis declare naval blockade on Saudi Arabia
• 21 Jul 26FLASH Saudi crude tankers reroute via Suez as Houthi Red Sea blockade takes real effect
• 21 Jul 26FLASH IRGC claims responsibility for third Hormuz tanker strike in 36 hours, threatens escalated attacks on shipping +1 update · latest 21 Jul 26
• 21 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Second vessel struck by projectile off UAE's Fujairah as Gulf of Oman attacks spread beyond Hormuz
• 20 Jul 26Revised to 55% on the record
  Kuwait's power and desalination plant was hit for a second consecutive day and Bahrain absorbed further interceptions, but no military or civilian fatality has yet been confirmed in Bahrain, Kuwait, or Qatar.
• 20 Jul 26Call · 65% likely The Houthis will not conduct an actual attack on Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb shipping within the next two weeks unless the U.S. strikes Iran's power grid specifically.
• 20 Jul 26No. 20 US strikes Iran for a ninth straight night as Kuwait's power plant is hit again
• 20 Jul 26No. 20 Death toll from Russian strike on grain carrier Golden Leo rises to 10, all crew accounted for
• 20 Jul 26FLASH Houthis declare immediate naval blockade on Saudi Arabia via Bab el-Mandeb
• 20 Jul 26FLASH Projectile hits Dynacom tanker in Strait of Hormuz's US-patrolled southern corridor, crew abandons ship
• 19 Jul 26No. 19 Iranian missile strike on a U.S.-linked base in Jordan kills two American troops, one still missing
• 19 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Russian missile strike kills five aboard grain carrier fleeing Black Sea shipping corridor
• 19 Jul 26FLASH IAEA confirms it is investigating US strike on Iran's Darkhovin nuclear plant construction site
• 19 Jul 26FLASH US strikes Iranian Revolutionary Guard as Tehran declares interim deal collapsed +1 update · latest 20 Jul 26
• 19 Jul 26FLASH Iranian missile strike on US base in Jordan kills two troops, one missing
• 18 Jul 26Call · 68% likely Kuwait will avoid declaring formal water-rationing measures within two weeks of the July 17-18 Iranian strikes on its power-and-desalination plant.
• 18 Jul 26No. 18 Iran strikes Kuwait's power-and-water plant a second time as it acknowledges hitting its own threshold for a Bab el-Mandeb closure order
• 18 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran hits second Kuwaiti power-and-desalination plant in as many days
• 18 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran acknowledges first US strikes on power grid, meeting threshold Tehran set for Houthi closure of Bab el-Mandeb +1 update · latest 18 Jul 26
• 17 Jul 26Revised to 2% on the record
  Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar all absorbed Iranian strikes today, confirming no ceasefire or shipping-volume recovery is underway.
• 17 Jul 26Call · 50% roughly even At least one of Bahrain, Kuwait, or Qatar will report a fatality among its own military or civilian personnel from Iranian strikes or retaliatory fire within two weeks of publication.
• 17 Jul 26No. 17 U.S. strikes Iranian bridges and a rail hub for a sixth night; Iran hits Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar in response
• 17 Jul 26FLASH Iran fires on US-linked bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar as US strikes hit Chabahar port, bridges in sixth night of war
• 16 Jul 26No. 16 US Navy disables tanker running Iran's blockade as Tehran threatens a second chokepoint in the Red Sea
• 16 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran directs Houthis to close Bab el-Mandeb if US strikes its power plants, missiles already positioned
• 16 Jul 26FLASH US Navy strikes and disables tanker for breaching Hormuz blockade, first such hit on commercial shipping +1 update · latest 25 Jul 26
• 15 Jul 26No. 15 Iran strikes Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan as its Guard vows to shut every export corridor, not just Hormuz
• 15 Jul 26FLASH Iranian missiles, drones wound four Kuwaiti sailors in navy-vessel strike as US-Iran war enters fourth night
• 15 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Trump threatens to hit Iran's power plants, bridges next week absent talks
• 15 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran's Revolutionary Guard threatens to close all export corridors benefiting US, allies
• 15 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Houthis threaten to close Bab el-Mandeb alongside Hormuz, warn of $200 oil shock
• 14 Jul 26Call · 55% likely No second major Houthi missile or drone strike on Saudi territory will occur within 30 days of the July 13 Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia's Abha airport.
• 14 Jul 26Call · 78% likely The UAE will not conduct a direct military strike or reprisal action against Iranian territory, forces, or assets within two weeks of Iran's July 14 missile strike that killed a crew member and struck two ADNOC tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
• 14 Jul 26No. 14 Iranian missiles kill a crew member, strike two UAE tankers as the Hormuz war widens further
• 14 Jul 26No. 14 Houthis strike Saudi Arabia's Abha airport in worst flare-up with Riyadh in years, after Yemeni forces hit Sanaa's runway
• 14 Jul 26FLASH US naval blockade of Iranian ports takes effect in Strait of Hormuz
• 14 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Trump drops 20% Hormuz toll, will seek Gulf trade deals instead
• 14 Jul 26FLASH Trump says US will strike Iran's underground Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site as third night of strikes hits Bushehr, Bandar Abbas
• 14 Jul 26FLASH Iranian missiles kill crew member, hit two UAE tankers in Strait of Hormuz
• 13 Jul 26No. 13 New wave of U.S. strikes on Iran brings first confirmed Iranian casualties as Hormuz standoff hardens
• 13 Jul 26FLASH Houthis fire missiles and drones at Saudi Arabia's Abha airport, King Khalid Air Base as truce collapse turns kinetic
• 13 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Yemen's Saudi-backed government strikes Houthi-held Sanaa airport; Houthis declare 2022 truce over, vow retaliation
• 13 Jul 26FLASH Trump says US will blockade Iranian shipping in Hormuz, charge 20% toll on other cargo
• 13 Jul 26FLASH Hormuz traffic falls to five-week low as Iran strikes Kuwait's US missile base, destroys HIMARS launchers
• 12 Jul 26Revised to 4% on the record
  The war widened again: Iran struck three Gulf Arab states directly and declared Hormuz closed while the U.S. hit ~140 targets. A ceasefire holding and shipping recovering by July 31 is now close to ruled out.
• 12 Jul 26No. 12 Iran strikes UAE, Qatar and Bahrain as U.S. hits about 140 sites and Hormuz is declared closed
• 12 Jul 26FLASH Iran extends Gulf war to Kuwait and Jordan, strikes Qatar's Al Udeid base; first casualties reported
• 12 Jul 26FLASH Iran strikes Oman, hitting US-linked port facilities; mediator Muscat rebukes Tehran for first time
• 12 Jul 26FLASH Iran fires on UAE, Qatar and Bahrain as US hits ~140 targets in Iran, widening Gulf war +1 update · latest 12 Jul 26
• 12 Jul 26FLASH IRGC attacks container ship, declares Strait of Hormuz closed as US launches third round of strikes
• 11 Jul 26Revised to 6% on the record
  Diplomatic movement (Iran's private admission of fault, renewed Oman talks) hasn't yet translated into shipping recovery — Hormuz traffic remains near-halted. A Polymarket market on 'Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31' also prices this at 8%, close to our read.
• 11 Jul 26FLASH Trump threatens to 'decimate and destroy' Iran with '1,000 missiles' over alleged Trump assassination plot
• 10 Jul 26Revised to 5% on the record
  Hormuz traffic has again ground to a near-halt, with no large vessel tracked crossing the U.S.-coordinated route since Tuesday — the opposite of a shipping recovery.
• 10 Jul 26No. 10 Iran strikes Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar as Trump declares the ceasefire "over"
• 10 Jul 26FLASH Strait of Hormuz shipping effectively grinds to a halt as US-Iran fighting resumes +3 updates · latest 11 Jul 26
• 9 Jul 26No. 9 U.S. launches second wave of strikes on Iran as Tehran hits Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar
• 8 Jul 26Revised to 10% on the record
  The crisis crossed from shipping attacks into direct combat: Iran hit a third tanker (the Saudi supertanker Wedyan) specifically on the Omani bypass route, and hours later U.S. CENTCOM struck more than 80 Iranian targets while Treasury revoked Iran's oil-sale waiver — the opposite of 'shipping volumes keep recovering.'
• 8 Jul 26No. 8 Iran-U.S. Hormuz crisis turns into direct combat as CENTCOM strikes 80-plus targets
• 7 Jul 26Revised to 40% on the record
  Iran's IRGC struck two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight July 6-7, one specifically for using the 'Omani route' — direct evidence against 'shipping volumes keep recovering'; Brent reversed part of its post-ceasefire drop.
• 7 Jul 26No. 7 Iran's IRGC strikes two tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, one a Qatari LNG carrier set ablaze
• 7 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Iran fires missiles at commercial ships in Strait of Hormuz +9 updates · latest 10 Jul 26
• 4 Jul 26No. 4 UK and France commit naval assets with Oman to restore safe Hormuz transit
• 2 Jul 26Call · 65% likely The U.S.–Iran ceasefire will hold and Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping volumes will keep recovering (no renewed closure or major disruption) through 31 July.
• 2 Jul 26No. 2 Strait of Hormuz shipping still suppressed as ceasefire implementation falters

Latvia’s prime minister calls for an EU-wide ban on tourist visas for Russians

Updated 19 Oct 26  ·  began 19 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 19 Oct 26Call · 12% very unlikely France, Italy or Spain publicly announces it will stop issuing tourist visas to Russians by 2027-01-31.
• 19 Oct 26No. 111 Latvia’s prime minister calls for an EU-wide ban on tourist visas for Russians

Jordanian officials say drones and GPS balloons are turning the Israel border into a new narcotics corridor

Updated 19 Oct 26  ·  began 19 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 19 Oct 26Call · 20% unlikely Jordan and Israel announce a formal bilateral counter-narcotics or border-drone coordination mechanism by 2027-10-31.
• 19 Oct 26No. 111 Jordanian officials say drones and GPS balloons are turning the Israel border into a new narcotics corridor

Italy Breaks With the EU, Deploys Warships Unilaterally to Protect Shipping Through Bab el-Mandeb

Updated 19 Oct 26  ·  began 18 Sep 26  ·  4 events

• 19 Oct 26Non liquet Italy tied added ships to wider European participation (Oct 2) and France escorted ships, but no clear second state announcement framed as separate from Aspides was found.
• 18 Sep 26Call · 45% roughly even At least one additional European state announces its own unilateral warship deployment to protect shipping through Bab el-Mandeb -- bypassing the EU's Aspides mission rather than working solely through it -- within 30 days of Italy's September 17, 2026 announcement (by October 17, 2026).
• 18 Sep 26No. 80 Italy Breaks With the EU, Deploys Warships Unilaterally to Protect Shipping Through Bab el-Mandeb
• 18 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Italy to deploy warships to Bab al-Mandeb, bypassing EU process, after Houthis seize full control of strait +1 update · latest 18 Sep 26

Mexico Rushes Thousands More Troops Into Sinaloa as Cartel's Internal War Grinds On

Updated 19 Oct 26  ·  began 14 Sep 26  ·  4 events

• 19 Oct 26Hit Mexican authorities arrested Ivan Cazarin Molina, alias El Tanque, described as a senior CJNG figure, in Zapopan on Oct 5, inside the window.
• 17 Sep 26No. 79 Mexico Rushes Thousands More Troops Into Sinaloa as Cartel's Internal War Grinds On
• 14 Sep 26Call · 55% likely Mexican or US authorities announce the capture or killing of at least one more senior Sinaloa Cartel or CJNG figure within 30 days of the September 14, 2026 Culiacán protests (by October 14, 2026).
• 14 Sep 26No. 76 Tens of Thousands March in Culiacán Against Sinaloa Cartel's Yearlong Turf War

CK Hutchison Seeks $1.5 Billion From Panama Over Canal Ports Takeover

Updated 19 Oct 26  ·  began 20 Aug 26  ·  4 events

• 19 Oct 26Non liquet No Panamanian settlement signal found, but coverage after August is thin; cannot fairly confirm absence.
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 CK Hutchison Seeks $1.5 Billion From Panama Over Canal Ports Takeover
• 20 Aug 26Call · 55% likely Panama's government will not publicly signal willingness to settle either the CK Hutchison or Panama Ports Company treaty arbitration claim within 60 days of August 20, 2026.
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison Seeks $1.5B+ in New Treaty Arbitration Over Panama Canal Port Seizure

Iran’s IRGC Navy says a second supertanker has hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz

Updated 18 Oct 26  ·  began 14 Oct 26  ·  4 events

• 18 Oct 26No. 110 Iran’s IRGC Navy says a second supertanker has hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz
• 15 Oct 26No. 107 Singapore-flagged container ship GFS Pride sinks in Hormuz as attacks on shipping reach a wartime high
• 14 Oct 26No. 106 Iran’s IRGC claims a third ship struck in two days at Hormuz as attacks since October reach at least 18
• 14 Oct 26IMMEDIATE Container ship GFS Pride sinks in Strait of Hormuz after missile strike; second Singapore-flagged ship damaged

Turkey says its new Mecca defense pact isn't aimed at Iran — and Egypt could join next

Updated 18 Oct 26  ·  began 9 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 18 Oct 26Revised to 60% on the record
  Egypt’s foreign minister says Cairo is seriously weighing joining the Mecca defence pact as Sisi seeks parliamentary backing for Saudi defence.
• 9 Aug 26Call · 68% likely Egypt does not formally accede to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement within 12 months of its August 7, 2026 signing (by August 7, 2027).
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Turkey says its new Mecca defense pact isn't aimed at Iran — and Egypt could join next

Trump waives Graham Act Russia sanctions and secondary tariffs a day before they were due to take effect; Zelensky and the EU object

Updated 17 Oct 26  ·  began 17 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 17 Oct 26No. 109 Trump waives Graham Act Russia sanctions and secondary tariffs a day before they were due to take effect; Zelensky and the EU object
• 17 Oct 26PRIORITY Trump waives Graham Act Russia sanctions and secondary tariffs a day before they were due to take effect

U.S.-Mexico tariff deal stalls as Commerce Secretary Lutnick resists deeper cuts on autos, steel and aluminum

Updated 16 Oct 26  ·  began 16 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 16 Oct 26Call · 22% unlikely The U.S. and Mexico announce an agreement lowering tariffs on Mexican autos, steel or aluminum by 2026-11-15.
• 16 Oct 26No. 108 U.S.-Mexico tariff deal stalls as Commerce Secretary Lutnick resists deeper cuts on autos, steel and aluminum

Colombia opens its embassy in Jerusalem and 19 countries condemn the move

Updated 16 Oct 26  ·  began 16 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 16 Oct 26Call · 20% unlikely At least one more Latin American country announces it will open or move an embassy to Jerusalem by 2027-10-16.
• 16 Oct 26No. 108 Colombia opens its embassy in Jerusalem and 19 countries condemn the move

Russia’s FSB detains a Japanese reporter on Sakhalin on spying allegations; Tokyo summons Moscow’s ambassador

Updated 16 Oct 26  ·  began 14 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 16 Oct 26No. 108 Russia’s FSB detains a Japanese reporter on Sakhalin on spying allegations; Tokyo summons Moscow’s ambassador
• 14 Oct 26No. 106 Russia detains a Japanese reporter on Sakhalin and charges him with spying

Costa Rica opens a 5,100-inmate high-containment prison modeled on El Salvador’s CECOT

Updated 15 Oct 26  ·  began 15 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 15 Oct 26Call · 30% unlikely Costa Rica's government reports its new high-containment prison holding at least 2,550 inmates (half its 5,100 capacity) by 2027-04-15.
• 15 Oct 26No. 107 Costa Rica opens a 5,100-inmate high-containment prison modeled on El Salvador’s CECOT

China and North Korea open the New Yalu River Bridge after 12 years, raising sanctions-evasion concerns

Updated 15 Oct 26  ·  began 15 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 15 Oct 26Call · 50% roughly even Chinese or North Korean state media, or Yonhap, report regular commercial truck traffic crossing the New Yalu River Bridge by 2026-11-30.
• 15 Oct 26No. 107 China and North Korea open the New Yalu River Bridge after 12 years, raising sanctions-evasion concerns

Two Turkish nationals detained in Germany over a Russia-directed arson at a Polish Starlink station

Updated 13 Oct 26  ·  began 13 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 13 Oct 26Call · 68% likely Polish authorities announce that Germany has surrendered at least one of the two Turkish suspects in the Wola Krobowska Starlink station arson to Poland by 2026-12-15.
• 13 Oct 26No. 105 Two Turkish nationals detained in Germany over a Russia-directed arson at a Polish Starlink station

Migrant boat capsizes off Djibouti: IOM says at least 139 dead, including 15 children

Updated 12 Oct 26  ·  began 11 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 12 Oct 26No. 104 Migrant boat capsizes off Djibouti: IOM says at least 139 dead, including 15 children
• 11 Oct 26PRIORITY Migrant boat capsizes off Djibouti: 139 dead, scores missing, UN says

European intelligence agencies warn defense executives of Russian assassination and sabotage plots, FT reports

Updated 12 Oct 26  ·  began 12 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 12 Oct 26Call · 60% likely At least one European country arrests or charges a suspect in a Russia-linked assassination or sabotage plot targeting a defense-industry firm or executive by 2026-12-31.
• 12 Oct 26No. 104 European intelligence agencies warn defense executives of Russian assassination and sabotage plots, FT reports

Pakistan strikes 10 sites in Afghanistan; Taliban vows retaliation in sharpest escalation since February

Updated 12 Oct 26  ·  began 24 Sep 26  ·  4 events

• 12 Oct 26Non liquet Taliban vowed a response and Pakistan claimed to repel border attacks (Taliban denied), but no clearly Taliban-claimed strike found.
• 24 Sep 26Call · 50% roughly even Afghanistan's Taliban government carries out a publicly claimed retaliatory cross-border strike or attack against Pakistani forces or territory within 14 days of Pakistan's September 24 strikes on 10 Afghan sites.
• 24 Sep 26No. 86 Pakistan strikes 10 sites in Afghanistan; Taliban vows retaliation in sharpest escalation since February
• 24 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Pakistan strikes 10 sites in Afghanistan after Taliban-linked drone attacks on border posts

US Withholds Sudanese Army Chief's UN Visa Pending His Acceptance of a 90-Day Ceasefire

Updated 12 Oct 26  ·  began 23 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 12 Oct 26Miss Burhan publicly rejected the US truce conditions (~Sept 30), said no visa was needed, and vowed to eliminate the RSF; no acceptance by Oct 7.
• 23 Sep 26Call · 18% very unlikely Sudan's Abdel Fattah al-Burhan accepts the Boulos-proposed 90-day ceasefire, thereby securing his U.S. visa, within 14 days (by October 7, 2026).
• 23 Sep 26No. 85 US Withholds Sudanese Army Chief's UN Visa Pending His Acceptance of a 90-Day Ceasefire

Kallas Floats Routing Russia-Sanctions-Evasion Cases to EU Prosecutor's Office

Updated 12 Oct 26  ·  began 11 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 12 Oct 26Hit No Council decision assigning sanctions-evasion cases to the EPPO; Kallas's idea remained a proposal. The Oct 12 Council action was unrelated entity listings.
• 11 Sep 26Call · 68% likely Kaja Kallas's September 10, 2026 proposal to route Russia-sanctions-evasion cases to the European Public Prosecutor's Office does not advance to a formal EU Council decision within 30 days (by October 10, 2026).
• 11 Sep 26No. 73 Kallas Floats Routing Russia-Sanctions-Evasion Cases to EU Prosecutor's Office

UN Rights Chief Urges US to Halt Haiti Deportations After 23 Custody Deaths

Updated 12 Oct 26  ·  began 10 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 12 Oct 26Hit No US pause: removal flights to Haiti continued (fourth flight Sept 12, 400+ returned); no DHS/State announcement found.
• 10 Sep 26Call · 85% very likely The US does not formally pause or suspend deportations to Haiti within 30 days of UN High Commissioner Volker Türk's September 8 call to halt such returns.
• 10 Sep 26No. 72 UN Rights Chief Urges US to Halt Haiti Deportations After 23 Custody Deaths

EU's Border Biometric Flexibility Window Lapses as Airport Delays Persist

Updated 12 Oct 26  ·  began 8 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 12 Oct 26Hit The Commission let the formal EES flexibility mechanism lapse Sept 6 and rejected the joint extension request; only reported informal tolerance, no formal decision.
• 8 Sep 26Call · 72% likely The European Commission does not reinstate or extend the EU Entry/Exit System's border-flexibility measures within 30 days of their September 6, 2026 expiration (by October 8, 2026), despite IATA's request and continued airport congestion.
• 8 Sep 26No. 70 EU's Border Biometric Flexibility Window Lapses as Airport Delays Persist

Trump Bans Canadian Alcohol, Dairy, and Motorcycles as Trade War Escalates

Updated 12 Oct 26  ·  began 21 Jul 26  ·  35 events

• 12 Oct 26Hit No new Canadian tariff or trade measure announced after the Sept 8 counter-tariffs; Carney signalled no return to talks and no October announcement found.
• 14 Sep 26Hit Canada's counter-tariffs (roughly CA$27.6B, covering steel, dairy, appliances, ag equipment, pulp/paper, electronics at 15-50% rates) took effect at 12:01am on September 8, 2026 exactly as scheduled, with no US-Canada deal or postponement beforehand.
• 9 Sep 26Call · 45% roughly even Canada announces a further round of retaliatory tariffs or other trade-restrictive measures against the United States within 30 days of the September 8-9 US import ban on Canadian alcohol, dairy, and motorcycles (by October 9, 2026).
• 9 Sep 26No. 71 Trump Bans Canadian Alcohol, Dairy, and Motorcycles as Trade War Escalates
• 9 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Trump bans Canadian motorcycles, dairy and alcohol imports as Canada fires back with new $20B tariffs
• 8 Sep 26Revised to 97% on the record
  Canada's retaliatory tariffs -- 15 to 50 percent on roughly $27.6 billion of US goods, including a doubling of steel/aluminum/iron duties to 50 percent -- took effect as scheduled on September 8, with Prime Minister Carney calling it a "dollar for dollar" response and no new US-Canada deal having intervened.
• 29 Aug 26No. 60 Treasury Moves to Cut Egyptian Bank’s UAE Branch From US Financial System Over Iran Flows
• 28 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Treasury severs Banque Misr's UAE branch from US financial system in first named 'Economic D-Day' target
• 26 Aug 26No. 57 Canada Imposes Dollar-for-Dollar Retaliatory Tariffs as US Trade Talks Collapse
• 26 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Canada sets Sept. 8 date for $28B dollar-for-dollar tariff retaliation against US +1 update · latest 8 Sep 26
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Trump Threatens to Double Canadian Auto Tariffs to 50% as Ottawa Readies Retaliation
• 25 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump threatens to hike Canada auto and steel tariffs to 50% starting January 1
• 24 Aug 26Miss Trump paused implementation on Aug 18 citing a tentative deal; tariffs did not take effect at 12:01am Aug 19 as the claim required (they took effect Aug 22 after talks later collapsed).
• 24 Aug 26No. 55 Trump Revives “51st State” Rhetoric on Canada in First Comments Since Trade Talks Collapsed
• 24 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Treasury opens 'Economic D-Day' campaign, issues first wave of secondary sanctions targeting Iran's trading partners +1 update · latest 25 Aug 26
• 23 Aug 26Call · 60% likely Canada's announced September 8, 2026 retaliatory tariffs on US steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics take effect on that date, without being averted or postponed by a new US-Canada deal.
• 23 Aug 26No. 54 Canada Fixes September 8 Date for Tariffs as Carney Declares Trade “War”
• 23 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Canada announces retaliatory tariffs on US steel, dairy, electronics after trade talks collapse
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 Trump Imposes 50% Tariffs on Canada as Trade Talks Collapse, Carney Vows Retaliation
• 22 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US-Canada trade talks collapse, 50% tariffs on $20B in Canadian goods take effect +2 updates · latest 23 Aug 26
• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Canada Calls US Trade Deal “Very Close” as Quebec Warns Talks Are “Far From Over”
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 UAE Cuts Trade With Iran Hours Before Trump’s Global Secondary-Sanctions Threat
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Trump Says US-Canada Have Trade “Deal” as Draft Terms Pressure Mexico to Match
• 20 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US and Canada claim trade deal framework, push tariff deadline to Saturday
• 20 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump declares 'Economic D-Day' on Iran, threatens secondary sanctions on any nation offering Tehran a lifeline
• 19 Aug 26Revised to 3% on the record
  Trump paused the scheduled 50-percent tariffs three days before the Aug. 19 deadline rather than letting them take effect on schedule, squarely against this call.
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 Trump pauses 50-percent Canada tariffs three days before deadline, citing near-final deal
• 19 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump pauses 50% Canada tariffs for 3 days hours before they were set to take effect +1 update · latest 20 Aug 26
• 18 Aug 26Call · 55% likely Canada and the US miss Wednesday's deadline and at least partial 50-percent tariffs on Canadian goods take effect on schedule August 19, 2026.
• 18 Aug 26No. 49 Canada and US remain apart hours before Wednesday's 50-percent tariff deadline
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Emerging US-Canada deal would trade auto and steel relief for minerals and energy commitments
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 US and Canada remain "far apart" three days before Trump's 50-percent tariff deadline
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 Canada presses for a trade framework as Washington's August 19 tariff deadline nears, with Ottawa weighing tougher retaliation
• 13 Aug 26No. 44 Mexico presses for lower auto tariffs as Canada weighs accepting a reduced rate ahead of USMCA's August 19 deadline
• 21 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Trump signs 50% tariff on most Canadian goods, overriding USMCA protections, effective in 30 days

South Korea arrests two ex-Chinese military personnel accused of spying on US-Korean bases

Updated 12 Oct 26  ·  began 12 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 12 Oct 26Hit Pyeongtaek branch of Suwon District Prosecutors indicted both former Chinese military men ~Sept 29, inside the 60-day window.
• 12 Aug 26Call · 65% likely South Korean prosecutors will formally indict at least one of the two Chinese nationals arrested August 10-11 for espionage against US-Korean military facilities within 60 days (by October 10, 2026).
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 South Korea arrests two ex-Chinese military personnel accused of spying on US-Korean bases

Oil slick from a flagless, sanctioned Russian tanker grows to 600 square kilometers off Oman

Updated 12 Oct 26  ·  began 7 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 12 Oct 26Non liquet No containment declaration found, but coverage stops mid-August (slick spreading, salvage starting); no September/October status available.
• 7 Aug 26Call · 30% unlikely Omani or international authorities declare the Caroline Bezengi oil slick off Oman's Hallaniyat Islands fully contained within 60 days of August 7, 2026.
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Oil slick from a flagless, sanctioned Russian tanker grows to 600 square kilometers off Oman

Colombia's president-elect names a pro-Western foreign minister and vows to dismantle the peace tribunal

Updated 12 Oct 26  ·  began 10 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 12 Oct 26Non liquet No bill or decree from the president found, but a government-allied senator (Enrique Gómez) filed an acto legislativo to sunset the JEP in 2028 and the government backs a JEP budget cut; whether that counts as the executive submitting is ambiguous.
• 10 Jul 26Call · 70% likely Within his first 60 days in office, Colombia's President de la Espriella will not have formally submitted legislation or a decree seeking to abolish the JEP peace tribunal.
• 10 Jul 26No. 10 Colombia's president-elect names a pro-Western foreign minister and vows to dismantle the peace tribunal

Cyprus launches a "Cypriot FBI" organised-crime directorate, but lacks a phone-interception law

Updated 11 Oct 26  ·  began 11 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 11 Oct 26Call · 20% unlikely Cyprus’s parliament passes a law or constitutional amendment authorising telephone interception for serious crime by 2027-04-11.
• 11 Oct 26No. 103 Cyprus launches a "Cypriot FBI" organised-crime directorate, but lacks a phone-interception law

Panama declares a state of emergency after its 7.7 quake; the canal reports normal operations

Updated 11 Oct 26  ·  began 9 Oct 26  ·  3 events

• 11 Oct 26No. 103 Panama declares a state of emergency after its 7.7 quake; the canal reports normal operations
• 10 Oct 26No. 102 Magnitude 7.7 earthquake strikes Panama; early reports show the canal running normally
• 9 Oct 26PRIORITY M7.7 earthquake strikes Panama; Canal operations reported normal as damage assessed

Rights group says RSF drone strike killed 41 displaced people at Blue Nile’s Ethiopian border

Updated 11 Oct 26  ·  began 10 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 11 Oct 26No. 103 Rights group says RSF drone strike killed 41 displaced people at Blue Nile’s Ethiopian border
• 10 Oct 26No. 102 Drone strike kills at least 30 displaced people at a Blue Nile camp in Sudan

Philippine vice president voices regret over a Filipino link to the 521 kg Laos meth jet case

Updated 11 Oct 26  ·  began 7 Oct 26  ·  3 events

• 11 Oct 26No. 103 Philippine vice president voices regret over a Filipino link to the 521 kg Laos meth jet case
• 8 Oct 26No. 100 Malaysia arrests four, including the pilot who owns the charter firm, after Laos seized 521 kg of meth from a private jet
• 7 Oct 26No. 99 Laos seizes 521 kg of crystal meth from a private jet that flew in from Malaysia; 13 detained

Morocco's king calls the migration model with Spain outdated; Rabat to propose a new deal

Updated 10 Oct 26  ·  began 10 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 10 Oct 26Call · 45% roughly even Either the Moroccan or Spanish government publicly confirms that Rabat has formally delivered its proposed new migration-control deal by 2026-11-30.
• 10 Oct 26No. 102 Morocco's king calls the migration model with Spain outdated; Rabat to propose a new deal

UAE prosecutors say flydubai co-pilot planned to crash an Israel-bound jet into Tel Aviv's airport

Updated 10 Oct 26  ·  began 6 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 10 Oct 26No. 102 UAE prosecutors say flydubai co-pilot planned to crash an Israel-bound jet into Tel Aviv's airport
• 6 Oct 26No. 98 UAE prosecutors call the flydubai cockpit attack a terrorist act; the co-pilot, an Omani national, had been barred from flying by Oman

Mexico opens a probe into video of gunmen who say they fight in Ukraine for the Jalisco and Sinaloa cartels

Updated 9 Oct 26  ·  began 9 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 9 Oct 26Call · 45% roughly even Mexico's government publicly identifies at least one man in the Ukraine cartel video by December 8, 2026.
• 9 Oct 26No. 101 Mexico opens a probe into video of gunmen who say they fight in Ukraine for the Jalisco and Sinaloa cartels

UK intercepts 25 Channel-crossing boats shipped as air freight, a first

Updated 9 Oct 26  ·  began 9 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 9 Oct 26Call · 25% unlikely The UK National Crime Agency or Home Office announces a second seizure of Channel-crossing boats moved by air freight by January 9, 2027.
• 9 Oct 26No. 101 UK intercepts 25 Channel-crossing boats shipped as air freight, a first

Kenya reports its first Ebola death, a Bundibugyo case that flew from the DRC through Uganda to Nairobi

Updated 8 Oct 26  ·  began 8 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 8 Oct 26Call · 30% unlikely Kenya's health ministry or the WHO confirms a second Bundibugyo Ebola case in Kenya by November 8, 2026.
• 8 Oct 26No. 100 Kenya reports its first Ebola death, a Bundibugyo case that flew from the DRC through Uganda to Nairobi

Colombia's new government drafts a counterterrorism statute with an asset-freezing registry of designated groups

Updated 8 Oct 26  ·  began 8 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 8 Oct 26Call · 35% unlikely Both chambers of Colombia's Congress give final approval to the counterterrorism statute by June 30, 2027.
• 8 Oct 26No. 100 Colombia's new government drafts a counterterrorism statute with an asset-freezing registry of designated groups

Germany's former spy chief August Hanning is jailed on treason and espionage charges, and Azerbaijan denies a report that it was his client

Updated 8 Oct 26  ·  began 6 Oct 26  ·  3 events

• 8 Oct 26Call · 15% very unlikely Germany's government summons Azerbaijan's ambassador or expels an Azerbaijani diplomat over the August Hanning espionage case by November 8, 2026.
• 8 Oct 26No. 100 Germany's former spy chief August Hanning is jailed on treason and espionage charges, and Azerbaijan denies a report that it was his client
• 6 Oct 26No. 98 Germany arrests August Hanning, a former BND president, and his ex-chief of staff on espionage suspicions

Chinese militia boat is spotted for the first time off Taiwan's east coast, working alongside a coast guard cutter

Updated 8 Oct 26  ·  began 2 Oct 26  ·  7 events

• 8 Oct 26No. 100 Chinese militia boat is spotted for the first time off Taiwan's east coast, working alongside a coast guard cutter
• 6 Oct 26Call · 45% roughly even Japan's Coast Guard or Foreign Ministry reports at least 20 unauthorized Chinese survey cases in Japan's exclusive economic zone for calendar 2026, published by February 15, 2027.
• 6 Oct 26No. 98 Japan says it ordered a Chinese survey ship out of its economic zone as unauthorized Chinese surveys reach 14 this year
• 5 Oct 26No. 97 Philippines says Chinese coast guard ships and a navy helicopter blocked a dynamite-fishing enforcement near Pag-asa
• 3 Oct 26Call · 20% unlikely By April 3, 2027, the Taiwan Coast Guard uses a water cannon on a China Coast Guard vessel (not a fishing boat).
• 3 Oct 26No. 95 Taiwan Coast Guard water-cannons a Chinese fishing boat inside restricted waters off Pratas
• 2 Oct 26No. 94 Philippine Coast Guard drives off a Chinese research vessel surveying inside its exclusive economic zone

Kenya reports first Ebola death: Bundibugyo case flew DRC–Uganda–Nairobi, contacts incl. flight passengers being traced

Updated 7 Oct 26  ·  began 7 Oct 26  ·  1 event

• 7 Oct 26PRIORITY Kenya reports first Ebola death: Bundibugyo case flew DRC–Uganda–Nairobi, contacts incl. flight passengers being traced

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

Armed escorts push migrants into Latvia from Belarus and steal border surveillance cameras

Updated 7 Oct 26  ·  began 7 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 7 Oct 26Call · 30% unlikely Latvia closes at least one road border crossing with Belarus by November 7, 2026.
• 7 Oct 26No. 99 Armed escorts push migrants into Latvia from Belarus and steal border surveillance cameras

Mexico sends about 500 troops to Tamaulipas after the US says Coast Guard personnel were fired on from the Mexican side of the Rio Grande

Updated 6 Oct 26  ·  began 6 Oct 26  ·  3 events

• 6 Oct 26Call · 50% roughly even Mexico's government publicly acknowledges that shots were fired at US Coast Guard personnel from Mexican territory by November 6, 2026.
• 6 Oct 26No. 98 Mexico sends about 500 troops to Tamaulipas after the US says Coast Guard personnel were fired on from the Mexican side of the Rio Grande
• 6 Oct 26PRIORITY Mexico sends 500 troops to Tamaulipas after US says Coast Guard was fired on from Mexican side of border

Ethiopian forces retake Tigray's capital Mekelle as the TPLF withdraws, with Ethiopia–Eritrea ties severed

Updated 6 Oct 26  ·  began 4 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 6 Oct 26No. 98 Ethiopian forces retake Tigray's capital Mekelle as the TPLF withdraws, with Ethiopia–Eritrea ties severed
• 4 Oct 26No. 96 Ethiopian forces push into Tigray’s capital as the UN Security Council prepares closed talks on Ethiopia

Ethiopia and Eritrea sever diplomatic ties as northern war escalates

Updated 6 Oct 26  ·  began 1 Oct 26  ·  4 events

• 6 Oct 26PRIORITY Ethiopian forces retake Tigray capital Mekelle as TPLF withdraws
• 2 Oct 26No. 94 Ethiopia and Eritrea sever diplomatic ties as northern war escalates
• 2 Oct 26PRIORITY Ethiopia and Eritrea sever diplomatic ties as northern war escalates
• 1 Oct 26PRIORITY Explosions heard in Ethiopia's capital as northern war escalates, opposition claims drone strikes

Philippine customs seizes 73 kg of methamphetamine hidden in a pelletizing machine shipped from Guadalajara, Mexico

Updated 5 Oct 26  ·  began 5 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 5 Oct 26Call · 25% unlikely By June 30, 2027, the Philippine Bureau of Customs announces another seizure of 50 kg or more of methamphetamine shipped from Mexico.
• 5 Oct 26No. 97 Philippine customs seizes 73 kg of methamphetamine hidden in a pelletizing machine shipped from Guadalajara, Mexico

Houthi-Saudi fight for Bab el-Mandeb's coastal heights escalates as UK backs Riyadh and Somaliland eyes an opening

Updated 5 Oct 26  ·  began 16 Sep 26  ·  12 events

• 5 Oct 26Non liquet The coalition vowed retaliation, and announced 'Yemen Dawn' air support on Oct 5, one day after the window; no confirmed named Saudi strike specifically in retaliation by Oct 4 was found.
• 5 Oct 26Non liquet Saudi authorities issued no statement on the F-15 claim in available reporting, but Houthi wreckage video circulated and the counter-signal allows analyst-verified imagery to count; neither could be established.
• 24 Sep 26No. 86 Houthi-Saudi fight for Bab el-Mandeb's coastal heights escalates as UK backs Riyadh and Somaliland eyes an opening
• 20 Sep 26Call · 30% unlikely Saudi Arabia publicly confirms or announces a kinetic military strike on Houthi launch sites or territory in direct retaliation for the September 19-20 Riyadh airport strike, within 14 days (by October 4, 2026).
• 20 Sep 26No. 82 Houthi Missile Hits Riyadh Airport Fuel Depot, First Confirmed Damage Inside the Saudi Capital
• 20 Sep 26FLASH Houthis strike Riyadh airport fuel depot and claim Aramco hit, first confirmed damage in capital +2 updates · latest 22 Sep 26
• 19 Sep 26No. 81 Riyadh Hit for the First Time as Houthi-Saudi War Escalates; UN Security Council Warns of Expanding Conflict
• 19 Sep 26FLASH Saudi Arabia sounds nationwide air-defense alerts as Riyadh hit for first time in Houthi-Saudi war +1 update · latest 19 Sep 26
• 16 Sep 26Call · 68% likely Saudi Arabia neither confirms nor denies the Houthi claim of an F-15 shootdown over Marib within 14 days of the claim (by September 30, 2026).
• 16 Sep 26No. 78 Houthis Claim Shootdown of Saudi F-15 as Coalition Accuses Group of Targeting Mecca With Drone
• 16 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Houthis claim shootdown of Saudi F-15 over Marib as Yemen ground war escalates
• 16 Sep 26FLASH Saudi coalition intercepts Houthi drone before it reaches Mecca's airspace, only second such attempt since 2017 +1 update · latest 17 Sep 26

Section 338 Canada Import Bans Get Their Effective Dates: September 15 and 29

Updated 5 Oct 26  ·  began 11 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 5 Oct 26Hit The import bans took effect at 12:01am ET on Sept 29 as proclaimed; no negotiated exemption, delay or narrowing was announced (Sept 15 changes touched only the 50% duty lists).
• 11 Sep 26Call · 65% likely Washington's September 29, 2026 Section 338 import-ban proclamations against Canadian-origin alcohol, dairy products, molasses, and motorcycles take effect on that date as written, without being paused or narrowed by a negotiated US-Canada exemption.
• 11 Sep 26No. 73 Section 338 Canada Import Bans Get Their Effective Dates: September 15 and 29

Canada's $27.6 Billion Retaliatory Tariffs Take Effect as Trade War Deepens

Updated 5 Oct 26  ·  began 8 Sep 26  ·  4 events

• 5 Oct 26Hit The US signed Section 338 proclamations on Sept 8 banning Canadian alcohol, dairy, molasses/whey and motorcycles (effective Sept 29) and adjusted 50% duty lists Sept 15, framed by the White House as a response to Canada's retaliation.
• 9 Sep 26Revised to 98% on the record
  The Trump administration signed executive orders banning imports of most Canadian alcohol, motorcycles, whey, and molasses effective September 29 and added a 50 percent tariff on Canadian cheese and other goods effective September 15, explicitly framed by officials as a response to Canada's September 8 retaliatory tariffs -- substantially fulfilling this call well ahead of its deadline.
• 8 Sep 26Call · 65% likely The United States formally imposes new countermeasures against Canada -- a new or increased tariff, an additional product designation, or another concrete trade-restrictive measure explicitly tied to Canada's September 8 retaliatory tariffs -- within 21 days (by September 29, 2026).
• 8 Sep 26No. 70 Canada's $27.6 Billion Retaliatory Tariffs Take Effect as Trade War Deepens

U.S. Sanctions Turkish Bank Accused of Laundering Iranian Oil Revenue Into Gold

Updated 5 Oct 26  ·  began 6 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 5 Oct 26Hit OFAC/FinCEN on Oct 1 acted against the A7 shadow-banking network used for Iranian oil sales and sanctions evasion; VTB Bank was also designated Sept 14 for Iranian sanctions evasion.
• 6 Sep 26Call · 75% likely The U.S. Treasury designates at least one more bank or financial network for facilitating Iranian oil-revenue laundering within 30 days of the September 4, 2026 Golden Global Bank designation (by October 4, 2026).
• 6 Sep 26No. 68 U.S. Sanctions Turkish Bank Accused of Laundering Iranian Oil Revenue Into Gold

Spain’s Sánchez Blames Russia, Israel for Disinformation Behind Ceuta Migrant Surge; Israel Fires Back

Updated 5 Oct 26  ·  began 3 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 5 Oct 26Hit No EEAS report or named-entity disclosure surfaced; an EU spokesperson said only that Russia tried to exploit the crisis and there was no conclusive evidence disinformation triggered it.
• 3 Sep 26Call · 35% unlikely The EU's diplomatic service (EEAS) does not publicly release the specific accounts, networks, or entities behind its Russia/Israel Ceuta-disinformation finding within 30 days of September 1, 2026 (by October 1, 2026).
• 3 Sep 26No. 65 Spain’s Sánchez Blames Russia, Israel for Disinformation Behind Ceuta Migrant Surge; Israel Fires Back

Peru Seeks 120-Day Decree Power to Militarize Border Security and Prisons

Updated 5 Oct 26  ·  began 30 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 5 Oct 26Miss Congress had not passed any decree-powers bill by Sept 30; a narrowed security/El Nino compromise was only agreed late Sept 30 with committee action Oct 1.
• 30 Aug 26Call · 55% likely Peru's Congress passes a substantially narrowed version of President Fujimori's 120-day decree-powers bill — one that drops the military prison-control or border-security provisions — rather than the package as submitted, by September 30, 2026.
• 30 Aug 26No. 61 Peru Seeks 120-Day Decree Power to Militarize Border Security and Prisons

EU narrows return-hub talks to Rwanda, Uzbekistan after ruling out Libya and Egypt

Updated 5 Oct 26  ·  began 3 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 5 Oct 26Hit No return-hub agreement with Rwanda or Uzbekistan was signed by Sept 30; five EU states say a first partner is targeted for end-2026/early 2027, and Uzbekistan denied any talks.
• 3 Jul 26Call · 60% likely The EU will not conclude a finalized return-hub agreement with Rwanda or Uzbekistan before 30 September 2026; talks slip, as prior EU/UK third-country schemes have.
• 3 Jul 26No. 3 EU narrows return-hub talks to Rwanda, Uzbekistan after ruling out Libya and Egypt

Punjab border heroin seizures double in nine months as smugglers shift tactics, India’s BSF says

Updated 4 Oct 26  ·  began 4 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 4 Oct 26Call · 72% likely By January 31, 2027, India's Border Security Force Punjab Frontier reports 2026 heroin recoveries above 1,000 kg.
• 4 Oct 26No. 96 Punjab border heroin seizures double in nine months as smugglers shift tactics, India’s BSF says

EU adds €130 million for border drone and counter-drone systems

Updated 4 Oct 26  ·  began 4 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 4 Oct 26Call · 55% likely By June 30, 2027, the European Commission announces further border drone or counter-drone funding beyond the EUR 130 million top-up announced October 3, 2026.
• 4 Oct 26No. 96 EU adds €130 million for border drone and counter-drone systems

Panama’s auditor targets former port regulators and Hong Kong executives in its canal-ports probe

Updated 3 Oct 26  ·  began 3 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 3 Oct 26Call · 25% unlikely By December 31, 2026, Panama's attorney general files formal criminal charges against former port regulators or CK Hutchison executives over the canal-port concession.
• 3 Oct 26No. 95 Panama’s auditor targets former port regulators and Hong Kong executives in its canal-ports probe

Satellite images show Chinese runway work gathering pace on Antelope Reef in the Paracels

Updated 2 Oct 26  ·  began 2 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 2 Oct 26Call · 60% likely Satellite imagery or Chinese state media shows a fixed-wing aircraft landing on the Antelope Reef runway in the Paracels by 2027-07-31.
• 2 Oct 26No. 94 Satellite images show Chinese runway work gathering pace on Antelope Reef in the Paracels

UK lets its “one-in-one-out” returns pilot with France expire

Updated 2 Oct 26  ·  began 1 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 2 Oct 26No. 94 UK lets its “one-in-one-out” returns pilot with France expire
• 1 Oct 26PRIORITY UK and France scrap 'one in, one out' Channel migrant returns deal

Five EU States Advance Plan to Deport Rejected Migrants to Hubs Outside the Bloc

Updated 2 Oct 26  ·  began 5 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 2 Oct 26Revised to 50% on the record
  The EU Council gave final approval to the Return Regulation on Oct 1 with return-hub provisions applying on publication, removing the legal-basis hurdle; actual receipt of deportees at a hub is still unproven.
• 5 Sep 26Call · 45% roughly even At least one EU return hub outside the bloc is actually receiving deported migrants within 18 months of the September 2026 Group-of-Five announcement (by March 5, 2028).
• 5 Sep 26No. 67 Five EU States Advance Plan to Deport Rejected Migrants to Hubs Outside the Bloc

Spain’s draft decree would tighten asylum rules for Ceuta arrivals as NGOs call it a “grave threat”

Updated 1 Oct 26  ·  began 1 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 1 Oct 26Call · 50% roughly even Spain's Council of Ministers formally approves a decree tightening asylum rules for the Ceuta mass-crossing arrivals by 2026-10-31.
• 1 Oct 26No. 93 Spain’s draft decree would tighten asylum rules for Ceuta arrivals as NGOs call it a “grave threat”

Saudi Arabia resumes Yanbu crude loadings after restarting its East-West pipeline

Updated 1 Oct 26  ·  began 1 Oct 26  ·  2 events

• 1 Oct 26Call · 60% likely Saudi crude loadings at Yanbu average at least 4 million barrels per day in a reported week by 2026-11-15.
• 1 Oct 26No. 93 Saudi Arabia resumes Yanbu crude loadings after restarting its East-West pipeline

Mexico freezes bank accounts of Sinaloa Cartel targets sanctioned by US Treasury

Updated 1 Oct 26  ·  began 30 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 1 Oct 26No. 93 Mexico freezes bank accounts of Sinaloa Cartel targets sanctioned by US Treasury
• 30 Sep 26No. 92 US Treasury sanctions 46 Sinaloa Cartel targets, including the ex-husband of Baja California’s governor

Flydubai Dubai–Tel Aviv flight diverts to Saudi Arabia after pilot reportedly stabs co-pilot in suspected hijack attempt

Updated 1 Oct 26  ·  began 30 Sep 26  ·  1 event

• 30 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Flydubai Dubai–Tel Aviv flight diverts to Saudi Arabia after pilot reportedly stabs co-pilot in suspected hijack attempt +2 updates · latest 1 Oct 26

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

DR Congo’s Ebola outbreak reaches 8,067 confirmed cases as WHO flags gaps in oxygen and early care

Updated 30 Sep 26  ·  began 29 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 30 Sep 26Call · 50% roughly even Cumulative confirmed Ebola (Bundibugyo) cases in DR Congo exceed 10,000 in WHO or DRC health-ministry data published by 2026-11-15.
• 30 Sep 26No. 92 DR Congo’s Ebola outbreak reaches 8,067 confirmed cases as WHO flags gaps in oxygen and early care
• 29 Sep 26No. 91 DR Congo’s Ebola outbreak passes 8,000 confirmed cases and reaches a province bordering South Sudan

Colombia hands Ecuador the wife and daughter of jailed Los Choneros boss “Fito” on money-laundering charges

Updated 30 Sep 26  ·  began 28 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 30 Sep 26No. 92 Colombia hands Ecuador the wife and daughter of jailed Los Choneros boss “Fito” on money-laundering charges
• 28 Sep 26No. 90 Colombia captures wife and daughter of extradited Ecuadorian gang boss “Fito”

Ethiopia’s army chief blames Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt for backing rebels; all three reject the claim

Updated 30 Sep 26  ·  began 25 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 30 Sep 26No. 92 Ethiopia’s army chief blames Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt for backing rebels; all three reject the claim
• 28 Sep 26No. 90 Ethiopia accuses Eritrea and Sudan of backing Tigray-led rebels as fighting displaces 150,000 in Afar
• 25 Sep 26No. 87 Ethiopia's Tigray war reignites as seven-group rebel coalition seizes airports, fighting spreads to Afar and Amhara

Panama Canal lifts Neopanamax draft to 14.94 m and adds a daily transit slot as rains return

Updated 29 Sep 26  ·  began 29 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 29 Sep 26Call · 50% roughly even The Panama Canal Authority reduces the maximum Neopanamax draft below 14.94 m (49 ft) at any point before 2027-01-31.
• 29 Sep 26No. 91 Panama Canal lifts Neopanamax draft to 14.94 m and adds a daily transit slot as rains return

US import ban on about $967 million of Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles takes effect

Updated 29 Sep 26  ·  began 29 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 29 Sep 26Call · 25% unlikely The US and Canada announce an agreement that suspends or rescinds the September 29 US import ban on Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles by 2026-10-29.
• 29 Sep 26No. 91 US import ban on about $967 million of Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles takes effect

Five EU states plan to send rejected asylum seekers outside the bloc from 2027

Updated 29 Sep 26  ·  began 29 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 29 Sep 26Call · 60% likely At least one EU member state signs a formal agreement with Rwanda, Uganda or Uzbekistan to receive its rejected asylum seekers by 2027-09-29.
• 29 Sep 26No. 91 Five EU states plan to send rejected asylum seekers outside the bloc from 2027

Colombia extradites Comandos de la Frontera leader “Araña” to California on narco-terrorism charges

Updated 29 Sep 26  ·  began 27 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 29 Sep 26No. 91 Colombia extradites Comandos de la Frontera leader “Araña” to California on narco-terrorism charges
• 27 Sep 26Call · 60% likely Colombia's government extradites at least one more senior TCO or armed-group figure to the US within six months of this week's extradition of Comandos de la Frontera commander Geovany Andrés Rojas Rodríguez, alias "the Spider" (by March 26, 2027).
• 27 Sep 26No. 89 Colombia extradites top narco-terror commander to the US, breaking a predecessor’s shield

Pentagon concealed Iranian missile strike that injured eight US Marines in Hormuz two weeks ago, NBC reports

Updated 28 Sep 26  ·  began 28 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 28 Sep 26No. 90 Pentagon concealed Iranian missile strike that injured eight US Marines in Hormuz two weeks ago, NBC reports
• 28 Sep 26IMMEDIATE NBC News: eight US Marines injured in previously undisclosed Iranian missile strike in Strait of Hormuz

Eritrea’s uncertain allegiance adds a new wild card to Ethiopia’s reignited civil war

Updated 28 Sep 26  ·  began 27 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 28 Sep 26Revised to 72% on the record
  Ethiopia's army commander publicly accused Eritrea (and Sudan) of financing and backing the TPLF-led rebel coalition -- the opposite alignment from the 2020-22 war -- which, if accurate, makes a reversal into direct Eritrean military support for the federal government even less likely, though the accusation is Addis Ababa's own characterization and not yet independently corroborated.
• 27 Sep 26Call · 65% likely Eritrea does not deploy military forces in direct support of Ethiopia's federal government against the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival within 12 months of the war's September 2026 reignition (by September 20, 2027).
• 27 Sep 26No. 89 Eritrea’s uncertain allegiance adds a new wild card to Ethiopia’s reignited civil war

Belgian Soldiers Join Police on Brussels Streets for the First Time in Anti-Drug Crackdown

Updated 28 Sep 26  ·  began 27 Aug 26  ·  7 events

• 28 Sep 26Non liquet Cumulative Brussels shooting counts (57 by Jul 31, 69 by the Aug 28 prosecutor briefing) show the wave continuing right through the Aug 26 declaration, but no source reports the precise 30-day-before vs 30-day-after tallies the claim requires, and a widely-surfacing '96 shootings' figure traced back to 2025 year-end data, not 2026 -- the year-to-date drumbeat of coverage never resets into the exact before/after comparison needed to grade this call.
• 30 Aug 26Revised to 65% on the record
  Belgium moved from declaration to action, deploying roughly 550 personnel including 70 soldiers in the August 28 FIPA operation — concrete follow-through that modestly raises confidence the intervention has enough teeth to show up in the shooting count, though soldiers still lack search/arrest powers pending a legal framework.
• 30 Aug 26No. 61 Belgian Soldiers Join Police on Brussels Streets for the First Time in Anti-Drug Crackdown
• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Belgian soldiers join Brussels police for first time in major anti-drug crackdown
• 28 Aug 26Call · 50% roughly even Brussels will record fewer gang-linked shooting incidents in the 30 days after Belgium's August 26 national-emergency declaration than in the 30 days before it.
• 28 Aug 26No. 59 Belgium Declares National Emergency Over Brussels Drug-Gang Shootings
• 27 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Belgium declares 'national emergency' as drug-gang shootings engulf Brussels

China's Ship Presence Near Taiwan Hits a Record for a Third Straight Month

Updated 28 Sep 26  ·  began 23 Aug 26  ·  5 events

• 28 Sep 26Miss No further reported sighting of the Tong Ji or another PLA-linked survey ship within 30nm of a Taiwanese naval facility surfaced between Aug 21 and Sept 22, 2026; Taiwan/China trackers (AEI's Sept 11 update, Taipei Times) instead logged separate PRC research vessels (Xiang Yang Hong 03, Haiyang Dizhi 10) operating away from Taiwanese naval bases.
• 28 Aug 26No. 59 China's Ship Presence Near Taiwan Hits a Record for a Third Straight Month
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Chinese Vessel Activity Near Taiwan Sets a Record for a Third Straight Month
• 23 Aug 26Call · 70% likely A Chinese research vessel (the Tong Ji or another PLA-linked survey ship) is observed again within 30 nautical miles of a Taiwanese naval facility within 30 days of the August 21, 2026 Tong Ji sighting.
• 23 Aug 26No. 54 Chinese Research Vessel Shadows Taiwan’s Largest Naval Base for Third Time Since May

Court documents name Moldova's chief rabbi in widening Ukraine-to-Israel arms case

Updated 28 Sep 26  ·  began 27 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 28 Sep 26Miss As of late September 2026 no formal indictment or charge naming Zaltzman had been filed by Moldovan or Romanian prosecutors; he continues to appear only in testimony, seized-phone evidence and a court ruling that explicitly does not determine he committed any offense, and the Organized Crime Prosecutor's Office spokesman still won't confirm or deny his status in the case.
• 27 Jul 26Call · 45% roughly even Moldovan or Romanian prosecutors will file formal charges against Rabbi Pinhas Zaltzman in the Ukraine-to-Israel arms-smuggling case within the next two months.
• 27 Jul 26No. 27 Court documents name Moldova's chief rabbi in widening Ukraine-to-Israel arms case

EU's 21st Russia sanctions package bars HTX and 14 crypto platforms from August 23

Updated 28 Sep 26  ·  began 22 Jul 26  ·  13 events

• 28 Sep 26Miss The only new Russia-sanctions proposal EU ambassadors discussed by Sept 22-23 (per RFE/RL's Wider Europe Briefing) targeted individuals/entities in the arms-manufacturing sector for adoption at the Oct 12 Luxembourg FMs meeting, with 'no sectoral sanctions proposals this time' -- explicitly excluding the shadow fleet, LNG trade, and Kirill/Alekperov carve-outs the call specified; von der Leyen's Sept 16 State of the Union instead stressed enforcing existing measures over new ones.
• 24 Aug 26Miss No single replacement exchange, jurisdiction, or stablecoin was publicly identified as absorbing HTX's Russia-linked flows by the Aug 23 ban; reporting instead describes HTX rotating wallets across multiple chains every few hours to evade screening, with exchanges simply blocking HTX rather than a successor consolidating the flow.
• 27 Jul 26Hit The EU adopted its 21st Russia sanctions package around the July 22 Brussels meeting, but the personal listings on Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov were dropped from the final text, along with energy (Greek LNG) and seafood carve-outs -- exactly the watered-down outcome the call anticipated.
• 26 Jul 26Call · 70% likely A specific replacement crypto exchange or rail will be publicly identified as absorbing Russia-linked flows displaced from HTX before the EU's August 23 transaction ban takes effect.
• 26 Jul 26No. 26 EU's 21st Russia sanctions package bars HTX and 14 crypto platforms from August 23
• 25 Jul 26Call · 70% likely China's export-control retaliation list against EU dual-use entities grows beyond today's 14 names within six months of July 25, 2026.
• 25 Jul 26No. 25 China hits 14 EU dual-use suppliers with export controls, retaliating for Brussels's Russia-sanctions package
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 EU adopts broadest Russia sanctions in four years, targeting shadow-fleet enablers for the first time
• 23 Jul 26Revised to 95% on the record
  EU governments agreed on July 23 (one day after the July 22 Brussels meeting) to a 21st sanctions package that drops the proposed personal listings on Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov under Bulgarian and Italian pressure, confirming the call's core prediction; Greece also secured an LNG exemption and France/Germany blocked a Russian seafood ban.
• 23 Jul 26Call · 60% likely The EU will propose or adopt a supplementary Russia-sanctions measure specifically targeting the shadow fleet, LNG trade, or the Kirill/Alekperov carve-outs within two months of the watered-down 21st package.
• 23 Jul 26No. 23 EU adopts watered-down 21st Russia sanctions package, dropping Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil’s founder from the list
• 22 Jul 26Call · 55% likely The EU's 21st Russia sanctions package is adopted at the July 22 Brussels meeting, but the proposed personal listings on Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov are dropped or materially watered down from the version originally proposed, rather than adopted intact.
• 22 Jul 26No. 22 EU ministers vote today on 21st Russia sanctions package, watered down after Bulgarian, Italian objections

China blocks a Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal; US embassy condemns “dangerous” maneuvers

Updated 27 Sep 26  ·  began 27 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 27 Sep 26Call · 45% roughly even The Philippines completes its next scheduled Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin) resupply mission without a repeat Chinese naval or coast-guard blocking or shadowing maneuver, within 60 days of the September 24, 2026 incident (by November 26, 2026).
• 27 Sep 26No. 89 China blocks a Philippine resupply mission to Second Thomas Shoal; US embassy condemns “dangerous” maneuvers

Ethiopia imposes communications blackout on Tigray as war spreads to Amhara and Afar

Updated 27 Sep 26  ·  began 2 Aug 26  ·  5 events

• 26 Sep 26No. 88 Ethiopia imposes communications blackout on Tigray as war spreads to Amhara and Afar
• 25 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Ethiopia imposes communications blackout on Tigray as army claims 272 rebel fighters killed in Amhara clash +1 update · latest 27 Sep 26
• 24 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Ethiopia's Tigray war spreads to Afar and Amhara as federal forces launch full-scale offensive +1 update · latest 25 Sep 26
• 23 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Tigray rebels seize Ethiopian airports, ally with six armed groups to oust Abiy government as war reignites
• 2 Aug 26PRIORITY Ethiopian forces and Tigray's TPLF clash at dawn near Sheraro, gravest breach yet of 2022 Pretoria peace deal +2 updates · latest 3 Aug 26

Seven Ethiopian Armed Groups, Including the TPLF, Form Coalition to Topple Abiy Ahmed's Government

Updated 27 Sep 26  ·  began 21 Sep 26  ·  5 events

• 27 Sep 26Revised to 40% on the record
  Analysts report Eritrea-Ethiopia relations have deteriorated sharply since 2020-22, meaning Eritrea may not repeat its prior role backing federal forces this time -- a modest new risk factor for Abiy's government even as federal forces claim battlefield gains in Amhara.
• 25 Sep 26Revised to 35% on the record
  The rebel coalition's offensive spread on Sept. 23-24 from Tigray into neighboring Afar and Amhara -- a genuine multi-front expansion beyond the airport seizures already priced in -- but federal forces' claim of killing 272 Tigrayan fighters in Amhara is a real counter-signal, so this moves only modestly rather than sharply.
• 24 Sep 26Revised to 30% on the record
  The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition materially escalated: TPLF and allied fighters seized federal airports at Mekelle, Shire and Axum and both sides now call it a return to full-scale war, a sharper move toward the call than the coalition's formation alone. Held below even because Addis Ababa still retains an untested but real drone-warfare edge it lacked in the 2020-2022 war.
• 21 Sep 26Call · 12% very unlikely The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival removes Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government from power within 12 months of its September 20, 2026 formation (by September 20, 2027).
• 21 Sep 26No. 83 Seven Ethiopian Armed Groups, Including the TPLF, Form Coalition to Topple Abiy Ahmed's Government

Haiti's displacement crisis hits a record 1.5 million as gangs push beyond the capital

Updated 26 Sep 26  ·  began 26 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 26 Sep 26Call · 75% likely Haiti's gang coalitions still hold effective territorial control over the areas driving today's 1.5 million displacement figure, without a restored state or multinational security-force presence there, twelve months from now (by September 26, 2027).
• 26 Sep 26No. 88 Haiti's displacement crisis hits a record 1.5 million as gangs push beyond the capital

Albania's intelligence chief ordered into house arrest over organized-crime ties

Updated 26 Sep 26  ·  began 26 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 26 Sep 26Call · 55% likely Albania's Special Prosecution Against Corruption and Organized Crime (SPAK) formally indicts SHISH director Vlora Hyseni within 90 days of her September 22, 2026 suspension (by December 21, 2026).
• 26 Sep 26No. 88 Albania's intelligence chief ordered into house arrest over organized-crime ties

Poland pushes EU-wide asylum-suspension power as its own Belarus border freeze nears 18 months

Updated 25 Sep 26  ·  began 25 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 25 Sep 26Call · 30% unlikely The EU formally adopts (Council-level agreement, not just a Commission proposal) a bloc-wide emergency asylum-suspension mechanism within 12 months of the October 1, 2026 interior-ministers summit (by October 1, 2027).
• 25 Sep 26No. 87 Poland pushes EU-wide asylum-suspension power as its own Belarus border freeze nears 18 months

Colombia severs ties with Iran, designates IRGC a terrorist organization

Updated 25 Sep 26  ·  began 25 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 25 Sep 26Call · 30% unlikely At least one other Latin American government formally designates the IRGC a terrorist organization within 6 months of Colombia's September 2026 break with Iran (by March 25, 2027).
• 25 Sep 26No. 87 Colombia severs ties with Iran, designates IRGC a terrorist organization
• 25 Sep 26PRIORITY Colombia severs diplomatic ties with Iran, designates IRGC a terrorist group

Colombia's Santa Marta armed shutdown set to lift after cartel remnant's 72-hour blockade

Updated 25 Sep 26  ·  began 23 Sep 26  ·  6 events

• 25 Sep 26No. 87 Colombia's Santa Marta armed shutdown set to lift after cartel remnant's 72-hour blockade
• 24 Sep 26No. 86 Colombia militarizes Santa Marta as armed group's blockade drags into a second day; US Embassy issues alert
• 24 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Colombia's Santa Marta shutdown spreads to three departments, extended through Friday as promised troop deployment falls short +3 updates · latest 25 Sep 26
• 23 Sep 26Call · 58% likely Colombian security forces capture or kill Fredy Castillo Carrillo, alias 'Pinocho,' leader of the Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada, within 60 days of President De La Espriella's September 22, 2026 public vow (by November 21, 2026).
• 23 Sep 26No. 85 Colombian Forces Kill Paramilitary Group's No. 2 in Santa Marta Raid; President Vows "Pinocho" Is Next
• 23 Sep 26PRIORITY Colombia militarizes Caribbean port city of Santa Marta after cocaine-trafficking group's armed strike shuts down commerce +1 update · latest 24 Sep 26

Panama's ship registry falls to third as Chinese pressure follows canal-port dispute

Updated 25 Sep 26  ·  began 20 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 25 Sep 26No. 87 Panama's ship registry falls to third as Chinese pressure follows canal-port dispute
• 21 Sep 26No. 83 China Seeks Extradition of Businessman From Panama in Fight Tied to Canal-Adjacent Port Bid
• 20 Sep 26No. 82 Panama Again Invites China to Formally Join the Canal Neutrality Treaty; Beijing Still Won't Commit

US and China extend Busan trade truce two months as Trump hosts Xi at the White House

Updated 25 Sep 26  ·  began 18 Sep 26  ·  7 events

• 25 Sep 26Call · 88% very likely The US and China preserve their 'Busan Agreement' tariff-and-critical-minerals truce -- via a further extension or a broader deal -- rather than letting it lapse into a return to triple-digit tariffs, by December 31, 2026.
• 25 Sep 26No. 87 US and China extend Busan trade truce two months as Trump hosts Xi at the White House
• 24 Sep 26No. 86 US and China extend trade truce two more months as Xi visits Washington
• 22 Sep 26No. 84 Rare-Earths Friction Threatens to Stall US-China Trade Truce Ahead of Wednesday's Xi-Trump Summit
• 19 Sep 26No. 81 Sheinbaum Says Trade Talks With Trump Are "Advancing," Both Sides Target a Deal Before the Midterms
• 18 Sep 26No. 80 Trump-Xi Summit Set for September 24 as Both Sides Signal a Trade-Truce Extension Is Likely
• 18 Sep 26No. 80 Trump and Sheinbaum Signal Progress Toward a Trade Deal Ahead of Late-September USMCA Talks

Syria's al-Sharaa tells UN "the walls of isolation are crumbling," declares "open war" on trafficking networks

Updated 24 Sep 26  ·  began 24 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 24 Sep 26Call · 50% roughly even Within 6 months of al-Sharaa's September 23 UN pledge to wage "open war" on cross-border criminal networks, Syrian authorities publicly report at least one seizure or arrest specifically tied to drug or human trafficking networks named in that pledge.
• 24 Sep 26No. 86 Syria's al-Sharaa tells UN "the walls of isolation are crumbling," declares "open war" on trafficking networks

Threatened Ceuta mass-crossing tied to Morocco's vote fizzles, but Sánchez tells UN it remains "one of the biggest migration crises"

Updated 24 Sep 26  ·  began 23 Sep 26  ·  4 events

• 24 Sep 26No. 86 Threatened Ceuta mass-crossing tied to Morocco's vote fizzles, but Sánchez tells UN it remains "one of the biggest migration crises"
• 23 Sep 26Call · 45% roughly even Spain and Morocco formalize a new joint enforcement mechanism at Ceuta and Melilla -- a joint patrol agreement, a surveillance-investment commitment, or a formal information-sharing MOU -- within six months of Morocco's September 23, 2026 election (by March 23, 2027).
• 23 Sep 26No. 85 Spain Reinforces Ceuta and Melilla as Morocco Votes Amid Youth Unrest and Fallout From July's Mass Crossing
• 23 Sep 26PRIORITY Spain reinforces Ceuta and Melilla ahead of threatened Sept. 23 mass migrant crossing timed to Morocco's elections

Sinaloa Cartel fentanyl-precursor trafficker "Don Flaco" arrested in Mexico City

Updated 24 Sep 26  ·  began 23 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 24 Sep 26No. 86 Sinaloa Cartel fentanyl-precursor trafficker "Don Flaco" arrested in Mexico City
• 23 Sep 26No. 85 Mexico Arrests Sanctioned Sinaloa Financier "Don Flaco" in Mexico City for Likely U.S. Extradition

Venezuela's acting leader Delcy Rodríguez pledges elections "at the right moment," opens dialogue with opposition

Updated 24 Sep 26  ·  began 22 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 24 Sep 26No. 86 Venezuela's acting leader Delcy Rodríguez pledges elections "at the right moment," opens dialogue with opposition
• 22 Sep 26No. 84 Venezuela's Delcy Rodríguez to Meet Trump in New York, First Such Encounter in Over a Decade

China expands fentanyl-precursor export controls to 18 chemicals ahead of Xi-Trump summit

Updated 24 Sep 26  ·  began 22 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 24 Sep 26No. 86 China expands fentanyl-precursor export controls to 18 chemicals ahead of Xi-Trump summit
• 22 Sep 26No. 84 China Adds Two Chemicals to Fentanyl-Precursor Export Control List Ahead of Trump-Xi Summit

Yemen Displacement Nears 130,000 as Houthi Offensive Pushes From the Coast Into the Red Sea Highlands

Updated 22 Sep 26  ·  began 19 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 22 Sep 26No. 84 Yemen Displacement Nears 130,000 as Houthi Offensive Pushes From the Coast Into the Red Sea Highlands
• 19 Sep 26No. 81 Yemen's War Displaces 112,000 in Two Weeks as Thousands Cross to Djibouti by Sea

China Confirms Month-Long Survey Mission by Research Vessel Near Contested Scarborough Shoal

Updated 22 Sep 26  ·  began 18 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 22 Sep 26No. 84 China Confirms Month-Long Survey Mission by Research Vessel Near Contested Scarborough Shoal
• 18 Sep 26No. 80 China Coast Guard Rams Philippine Fisheries Vessel Near the Spratly Islands

ELN Drone Swarm Kills Colombian Army Captain in Escalating Border Campaign

Updated 21 Sep 26  ·  began 5 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 21 Sep 26Hit The very next day, September 5, ELN drones struck a police substation in Guamalito, El Carmen (Norte de Santander), wounding three officers, and ELN drone attacks against security forces in the Catatumbo region continued through the window, including another strike on the El Carmen police post on September 20.
• 5 Sep 26Call · 70% likely The ELN carries out at least one more drone attack against Colombian security forces in Cesar or Norte de Santander department within 14 days of the September 4-5 Ocaña battalion attack (by September 18, 2026).
• 5 Sep 26No. 67 ELN Drone Swarm Kills Colombian Army Captain in Escalating Border Campaign

Western Balkan Truckers Threaten September 14 EU Border Blockade Over Schengen Stay Limits

Updated 21 Sep 26  ·  began 1 Sep 26  ·  4 events

• 21 Sep 26Miss No blockade occurred on or around September 14; Balkan haulier associations (Serbia, Bosnia, Montenegro, North Macedonia) called off the planned action on September 11 after a 'breakthrough' in talks with Brussels, even though the Commission kept the 90/180-day Schengen limit itself unchanged and offered only workaround tools (long-term visas, residence permits) for professional drivers.
• 15 Sep 26Revised to 8% on the record
  Western Balkan carriers' committee postponed the September 14 blockade after Brussels showed what organizers called "genuine readiness for dialogue" and concrete progress on a timeline for a special professional-driver visa exempting them from the Schengen 90-day rule; the anticipated EU concession materialized and the blockade did not proceed as scheduled. Organizers say the protest is deferred, not cancelled, and warn they will set a new date if the promised timeline slips.
• 1 Sep 26Call · 62% likely Western Balkan truckers follow through with a verified border blockade against the EU on or around September 14, 2026, absent an EU concession on the Schengen 90-day stay rule before then.
• 1 Sep 26No. 63 Western Balkan Truckers Threaten September 14 EU Border Blockade Over Schengen Stay Limits

US Navy Aircraft Transits Taiwan Strait Ahead of Planned Xi-Trump Meeting

Updated 21 Sep 26  ·  began 22 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 21 Sep 26Hit In the 30 days before the reported September 24 Trump-Xi meeting, Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense logged only routine daily PLA aircraft/ship activity with no named large-scale, multi-day, multi-domain exercise; PLA ADIZ incursions were in fact down roughly 50% year-over-year, with pressure shifting to persistent coast-guard presence rather than a major drill.
• 22 Aug 26Call · 55% likely China does not conduct a large-scale (multi-day, multi-domain) military exercise near Taiwan in the 30 days before the reported September 2026 Xi-Trump meeting.
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 US Navy Aircraft Transits Taiwan Strait Ahead of Planned Xi-Trump Meeting

EU Commission confirms unaccompanied migrant minors in Ceuta can be returned to Morocco

Updated 21 Sep 26  ·  began 19 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 21 Sep 26Miss Spain reported roughly 5,300 adult 'voluntary' returns to Morocco since August 10, but the government explicitly stated unaccompanied minors could not be summarily deported and repatriation of registered minors was reported stalled at roughly 2% as of early September, with officials declining to sign deportation files. Since the claim specifically required minors to be included in a 50%-plus return rate, and minor returns were severely stalled, the claim's condition was not met.
• 19 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Spain returns at least half of the roughly 5,000 people still irregularly present in Ceuta, including registered minors, to Morocco within 30 days.
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 EU Commission confirms unaccompanied migrant minors in Ceuta can be returned to Morocco

Houthi missile barrage forces Yemen's Mocha port to fully suspend operations

Updated 21 Sep 26  ·  began 16 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 21 Sep 26Hit Mocha never resumed commercial operations within the window -- instead, on September 10 Houthi forces militarily seized the port town outright, extending their control to the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint, the opposite of a safe-passage guarantee or reopening statement.
• 16 Aug 26Call · 68% likely Yemen's Mocha port will not resume any commercial or maritime operations within 30 days of the August 9-15 Houthi missile barrage that forced its shutdown.
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 Houthi missile barrage forces Yemen's Mocha port to fully suspend operations

A Panama Canal queue-jump slot hits a record $4.6 million as war-driven rerouting collides with El Niño low water

Updated 21 Sep 26  ·  began 6 Aug 26  ·  8 events

• 21 Sep 26Hit Both named carriers formally announced Panama Canal draft-related surcharges before the deadline: CMA CGM introduced a $500/TEU 'Panama Canal Adjustment Factor' on Far East-U.S. East/Gulf Coast cargo effective September 10, 2026, and MSC raised its Panama Canal Surcharge to $149/TEU effective September 12, 2026, both citing the canal's draft restrictions.
• 15 Aug 26No. 46 A Panama Canal queue-jump slot hits a record $4.6 million as war-driven rerouting collides with El Niño low water
• 13 Aug 26Revised to 97% on the record
  CMA CGM (effective Sept 10) and MSC (effective Sept 12) have both now formally announced Panama Canal congestion surcharges on US East/Gulf Coast routings, substantially fulfilling the call well ahead of the September 15 deadline.
• 13 Aug 26No. 44 CMA CGM and MSC add Panama Canal surcharges as slot auctions average 16 times last year's rate
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 Container ship pays $4 million to skip a 10-day Panama Canal queue as El Niño draft cuts collide with Iran-war rerouting
• 8 Aug 26Call · 72% likely At least one major container line (MSC, CMA CGM, or a peer) formally announces a Panama Canal congestion or draft-related surcharge on Asia-U.S. East/Gulf Coast routings by September 15, 2026.
• 8 Aug 26No. 39 Panama Canal to cut ship draft to 47.5 feet from September as drought deepens, adding strain to East Coast shipping
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Panama Canal tightens draft limits again as El Niño keeps water levels under pressure

Venezuela's Interim Government Nears Deal to Move $4 Billion in Gold From London to New York

Updated 19 Sep 26  ·  began 18 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 19 Sep 26Revised to 42% on the record
  Reporting now describes the London-to-New-York transfer as nearing completion, with only the British court's legal-authority determination outstanding -- a narrower gap to a signed agreement than the call's opening state implied.
• 18 Sep 26Call · 65% likely Venezuela's interim government and the UK do not have a formally signed gold-transfer agreement within 60 days of the September 18, 2026 Financial Times report (by November 17, 2026).
• 18 Sep 26No. 80 Venezuela's Interim Government Nears Deal to Move $4 Billion in Gold From London to New York

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Falls to a Record Three Ships a Day as Saudi Arabia Reroutes Crude Through Oman

Updated 18 Sep 26  ·  began 15 Sep 26  ·  5 events

• 18 Sep 26No. 80 Strait of Hormuz Traffic Falls to a Record Three Ships a Day as Saudi Arabia Reroutes Crude Through Oman
• 17 Sep 26No. 79 US Held Secret Oman Talks With Houthis, Who Excluded Saudi Ships From a Non-Attack Pledge
• 17 Sep 26FLASH Strait of Hormuz ship transits collapse to three on Wednesday, far below 10-day average of 17 +3 updates · latest 18 Sep 26
• 17 Sep 26IMMEDIATE US held secret weekend talks with Houthis in Oman as group pledges to spare US, Israeli ships but not Saudi vessels
• 15 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Houthis strike Saudi airbase at Khamis Mushait, wound 13, as Hormuz talks stall further +1 update · latest 15 Sep 26

Houthis Complete Control of Both Bab al-Mandeb Shores; Saree Warns Off Saudi Shipping Only

Updated 18 Sep 26  ·  began 19 Aug 26  ·  23 events

• 14 Sep 26FLASH Houthis seize Yemen's Hanish islands as satellite images confirm Saudi Hormuz-bypass pipeline could run dry within a week +2 updates · latest 14 Sep 26
• 12 Sep 26No. 74 Houthis Complete Control of Both Bab al-Mandeb Shores; Saree Warns Off Saudi Shipping Only
• 12 Sep 26FLASH Bab el-Mandeb ship traffic halves to 15 daily transits as Houthis complete seizure of Perim Island +3 updates · latest 18 Sep 26
• 12 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Iraq traces Saudi pipeline strike to militia site on its soil as Houthis vow to spare all but Saudi ships +1 update · latest 12 Sep 26
• 11 Sep 26No. 73 Houthis Seize Zuqar and the Hanish Islands; Unverified Claim Adds Perim to Bab al-Mandeb Grip
• 11 Sep 26FLASH Saudi Arabia shuts down East-West pipeline, its sole Hormuz bypass, after Houthi-attributed strikes +2 updates · latest 15 Sep 26
• 11 Sep 26FLASH Houthis confirm capture of Mocha, Dhubab and Perim Island, seizing full control of Yemen's Bab el-Mandeb coastline as oil tops $100
• 11 Sep 26FLASH Houthis seize Zuqar Island and land forces on Perim, tightening chokehold on Bab el-Mandeb Strait +1 update · latest 11 Sep 26
• 10 Sep 26No. 72 Houthis Near Full Control of Bab al-Mandeb's Flanking Coast as Oil Tops $100 a Barrel
• 10 Sep 26FLASH Houthis seize Yemen's Red Sea port of Mocha, closing in on Bab al-Mandeb control as oil tops $100
• 10 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Houthis close in on Bab al-Mandeb's coastal towns, threatening a second closed chokepoint alongside Hormuz
• 7 Sep 26No. 69 Yemen's Death Toll Passes 300 as Houthis Cut the Last Road to Government-Held Mokha
• 7 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Yemeni government forces repel Houthi assault on Mocha, seize Houthi camp in al-Jawf
• 7 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Yemen death toll passes 300 as Houthis cut Taiz-Mokha road, near Bab al-Mandeb approaches
• 6 Sep 26No. 68 Yemen's Houthi-Government Clashes Kill Dozens More in a Second Brutal Day
• 5 Sep 26No. 67 Houthi Offensive Toward Bab al-Mandab Turns Into Yemen’s Deadliest Clashes in Years
• 5 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Yemeni government launches first independent airstrikes on Houthis since July, vows to hold Bab al-Mandeb +1 update · latest 6 Sep 26
• 4 Sep 26No. 66 Houthi Offensive Toward Bab al-Mandab Intensifies as Taiz Assault Targets Road to Al-Makha Port
• 4 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Yemen death toll tops 129 in Houthi offensive on Bab al-Mandeb, deadliest clashes in years +1 update · latest 5 Sep 26
• 4 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Houthi fighters seize high ground over Bab al-Mandeb as Yemen clashes kill 81
• 3 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Houthi offensive toward Bab al-Mandab kills at least 13 Yemeni troops +2 updates · latest 4 Sep 26
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Yemen’s Government Warns Houthis Are Massing to Seize Bab el-Mandeb
• 19 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Yemen government warns Houthis are massing forces to seize Bab el-Mandeb strait's coast

EU Proposes Making Canada Its First "Associate Member," Drawing a Trump Tariff Threat

Updated 17 Sep 26  ·  began 17 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 17 Sep 26Call · 75% likely Canada has not formally signed an EU 'associate member' agreement within 12 months of the September 17, 2026 proposal (by September 17, 2027).
• 17 Sep 26No. 79 EU Proposes Making Canada Its First "Associate Member," Drawing a Trump Tariff Threat

US Presses Mexico to Tighten AI-Hardware Export Rules to Close a China Workaround

Updated 16 Sep 26  ·  began 16 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 16 Sep 26Call · 55% likely The US and Mexico do not reach a final agreement on the proposed AI-hardware rules-of-origin restriction within 90 days of this week's USMCA-review talks (by December 15, 2026).
• 16 Sep 26No. 78 US Presses Mexico to Tighten AI-Hardware Export Rules to Close a China Workaround

Poland's Russian Espionage Caseload Holds Steady at 107 Cases in 20 Months

Updated 16 Sep 26  ·  began 15 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 16 Sep 26Call · 72% likely Poland's national prosecutors' rate of new top-tier Russia-linked espionage case openings over the 12 months following September 16, 2026 does not fall to half or below the roughly 2/month pace recorded over the prior 20 months (by September 16, 2027).
• 16 Sep 26No. 78 Poland's Russian Espionage Caseload Holds Steady at 107 Cases in 20 Months
• 15 Sep 26No. 77 Russian Espionage Cases Mount Across NATO's Eastern Flank

Colombia's Push to Resume Aerial Coca Spraying Hits a Court Wall in Its First Week

Updated 16 Sep 26  ·  began 13 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 16 Sep 26Call · 65% likely Colombia's government does not obtain court clearance to conduct aerial coca-eradication spraying in any department within 60 days of the September 11, 2026 Puerto Asís suspension (by November 10, 2026).
• 16 Sep 26No. 78 Colombia's Push to Resume Aerial Coca Spraying Hits a Court Wall in Its First Week
• 13 Sep 26No. 75 Colombian Judge Halts Government's Return to Aerial Coca Spraying

NATO Jets Down Explosives-Laden Drone Over Lithuania as Russian Frigate Fires Flares at Danish Helicopter

Updated 16 Sep 26  ·  began 12 Sep 26  ·  6 events

• 16 Sep 26No. 78 NATO Jets Down Explosives-Laden Drone Over Lithuania as Russian Frigate Fires Flares at Danish Helicopter
• 15 Sep 26No. 77 Poland Recovers Russian Drone on Baltic Coast, Scrambles Jets After Border Rail Strike
• 14 Sep 26No. 76 Russian Drone Strike Near NATO Border May Have Targeted Diplomatic Train Carrying Boris Johnson, Ex-CIA Chief
• 14 Sep 26FLASH Ukraine says Russian drone that hit Poland border crossing likely targeted diplomatic train carrying Boris Johnson, ex-CIA chief
• 13 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Russian drone strike hits Ukraine-Poland border crossing, evacuates Kyiv-Warsaw train 2km from Poland
• 12 Sep 26No. 74 Tusk Warns Russia Will Intensify Border Provocations After Deadly Moldova Drone Strike

CENTCOM Says Iran Struck Tanker Twice, Rejects Tehran's Mine Claim

Updated 15 Sep 26  ·  began 15 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 15 Sep 26No. 77 CENTCOM Says Iran Struck Tanker Twice, Rejects Tehran's Mine Claim
• 15 Sep 26IMMEDIATE CENTCOM: Iran struck Panama-flagged tanker El Gaia with missile, then drone, contradicting Tehran's Hormuz mine claim

Yemeni Refugee Arrivals in Djibouti Top 2,000 in a Week as Houthi Offensive Widens

Updated 15 Sep 26  ·  began 12 Sep 26  ·  4 events

• 15 Sep 26No. 77 Yemeni Refugee Arrivals in Djibouti Top 2,000 in a Week as Houthi Offensive Widens
• 14 Sep 26No. 76 Yemen Displacement Tops 85,000 as Houthi Offensive Widens, More Flee to Djibouti
• 13 Sep 26No. 75 Yemen Displacement Quadruples to Over 76,000 in a Week as Fighting Spreads
• 12 Sep 26No. 74 Yemen Displacement Surges Past 46,000 as Red Sea Coast Fighting Widens

Sweden's Far Right Suffers First Setback in Two Decades as Knife-Edge Vote Favors Center-Left

Updated 14 Sep 26  ·  began 13 Sep 26  ·  4 events

• 14 Sep 26Revised to 78% on the record
  Partial results show a razor-thin centre-left lead (175-174 projected seats) and the Sweden Democrats losing about three points to finish third -- their first setback in two decades -- narrowing the path to any right-bloc government that would need to bring them into cabinet; final count isn't due until Wednesday.
• 14 Sep 26No. 76 Sweden's Far Right Suffers First Setback in Two Decades as Knife-Edge Vote Favors Center-Left
• 13 Sep 26Call · 72% likely Sweden's Sweden Democrats do not hold a full cabinet ministerial portfolio within 60 days of the September 13, 2026 election (by November 12, 2026), even if the right bloc wins outright.
• 13 Sep 26No. 75 Sweden Votes in Knife-Edge Election That Could Bring Far Right Into Government

EU to Harden Migration Policy After Ceuta Crisis, Weighing Asylum Suspension and Tripled Frontex

Updated 14 Sep 26  ·  began 4 Sep 26  ·  4 events

• 14 Sep 26No. 76 EU to Harden Migration Policy After Ceuta Crisis, Weighing Asylum Suspension and Tripled Frontex
• 10 Sep 26No. 72 EU Approves €114.7 Million Emergency Aid for Spain's Ceuta Migration Crisis
• 7 Sep 26No. 69 EU Dispatches Technical Mission to Ceuta as Spain Presses for Emergency Support
• 4 Sep 26No. 66 EU Commission Stalls Spain’s Emergency Ceuta Request as Trump Calls Spain a “Ruined Country”

Germany Formally Blames Russia for Leipzig Airport Drone Plot; EU Calls It “State-Sponsored Terrorism”

Updated 14 Sep 26  ·  began 30 Aug 26  ·  6 events

• 14 Sep 26Hit Germany formally attributed the Leipzig plot to Russia on Sept 1, closed the Russian Consulate General in Bonn and the Russian House in Berlin, and on September 10 -- inside the Sept 12 window -- expelled roughly 150 Russian diplomatic personnel and family members, explicitly tied to the sabotage plot.
• 2 Sep 26Call · 60% likely The EU formally imposes new sanctions on Russian individuals or entities specifically tied to the Leipzig airport drone plot within 60 days, by November 1, 2026.
• 2 Sep 26No. 64 Germany Formally Blames Russia for Leipzig Airport Drone Plot; EU Calls It “State-Sponsored Terrorism”
• 1 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Germany blames Russia for explosive drone at Leipzig airport, shuts Russian consulate +4 updates · latest 3 Sep 26
• 30 Aug 26Call · 72% likely Germany announces at least one concrete measure against Russia — a diplomat expulsion, an asset freeze, or a named sanctions listing — over the Leipzig airport drone plot within 14 days of this brief (by September 12, 2026).
• 30 Aug 26No. 61 Germany Prepares to Accuse Russia, Announce Sanctions Over Leipzig Airport Drone Plot

DRC's Ebola outbreak passes 4,660 cases and a 47% fatality rate as the UN warns "Ebola is winning"

Updated 14 Sep 26  ·  began 15 Aug 26  ·  4 events

• 14 Sep 26Hit WHO Disease Outbreak News (DON617) reported 6,757 confirmed cases as of September 7, already past 6,000 more than a week before the deadline, with follow-on reporting putting the count near 7,200 by Sept 12-13; the 0.5M funding tranche did not visibly bend the curve.
• 9 Sep 26Revised to 99% on the record
  WHO's September 7 situation report puts confirmed cases at 6,686, already past the 6,000 threshold with five days still remaining before the call's September 14 deadline.
• 15 Aug 26Call · 55% likely Confirmed cases in the DRC's current Bundibugyo-strain Ebola outbreak surpass 6,000 by September 14, 2026.
• 15 Aug 26No. 46 DRC's Ebola outbreak passes 4,660 cases and a 47% fatality rate as the UN warns "Ebola is winning"

Poland says a joint operation with US services thwarted the Warsaw assassination plot against an American

Updated 14 Sep 26  ·  began 14 Aug 26  ·  5 events

• 14 Sep 26Miss No EU or NATO member state was found publicly citing Poland's foiled Warsaw assassination plot specifically when announcing its own new counter-Russian-espionage or security measures through the Sept 12 deadline; coverage of the plot itself was widespread, but no other state's response was framed as a reaction to it.
• 15 Aug 26No. 46 Poland says a joint operation with US services thwarted the Warsaw assassination plot against an American
• 14 Aug 26Call · 50% roughly even At least one other EU or NATO member state publicly cites Poland's foiled assassination plot in announcing new counter-Russian-espionage or security measures within 30 days of August 13, 2026.
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 Poland says it foiled a Russian-directed plot to assassinate a dual US-Ukrainian citizen in Warsaw
• 14 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Poland says it thwarted a Russian intelligence-directed plot to assassinate a US-Ukrainian citizen in Warsaw

Jamaica detains Kingston port workers as investigators probe a J$1 billion cocaine bust

Updated 14 Sep 26  ·  began 9 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 14 Sep 26Non liquet Six to eight KFTL-linked employees were detained but police never publicly disclosed identities, roles, or charge status by the Sept 8 deadline. The one person confirmed charged in the window, Roderick Spence, is described only as a St. James man from Montego Bay with no stated employer -- nothing ties him to KFTL employment.
• 9 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Jamaican authorities file formal charges against at least one Kingston container-terminal (KFTL) employee in the cocaine-bust probe within 30 days (by September 8, 2026).
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Jamaica detains Kingston port workers as investigators probe a J$1 billion cocaine bust

Estonia's minister says it's "rush hour" at the Belarus border as Lithuania finds another smuggling tunnel

Updated 14 Sep 26  ·  began 28 Jul 26  ·  5 events

• 14 Sep 26Miss Poland closed its Belarus border crossings from September 11, but this was explicitly framed around the Russia-Belarus 'Zapad'-style military exercises, not the Lithuania tunnel-digging pattern; no Polish government/Straz Graniczna announcement was found citing the tunnel pattern specifically within the 45-day window.
• 13 Aug 26Revised to 58% on the record
  Latvia discovered its own first migrant-smuggling tunnel under the Belarus border on August 10-11 -- a second, independent instance of the tunnel-digging tactic beyond Lithuania -- strengthening the pattern Poland could cite if it reinforces its own frontier.
• 29 Jul 26Call · 50% roughly even Poland will announce a new incremental reinforcement of its own Belarus border (additional troops, barrier extension, or an emergency border-guard surge) specifically citing the tunnel-digging pattern documented in Lithuania, within 45 days.
• 29 Jul 26No. 29 Estonia's minister says it's "rush hour" at the Belarus border as Lithuania finds another smuggling tunnel
• 28 Jul 26No. 28 Lithuania finds new Belarus border tunnel, turns back 20 migrants

U.S. designates Juárez Cartel and Los Viagras as terrorists as Sheinbaum rejects DEA's cartel-government claim

Updated 14 Sep 26  ·  began 16 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 14 Sep 26Hit No DOJ indictment or criminal complaint citing the Juarez Cartel or Los Viagras FTO/SDGT designation as the legal basis for a material-support charge was found through mid-September; the one comparable 'first material support' prosecution located is tied to the CJNG designation, not Juarez Cartel/Los Viagras.
• 16 Jul 26Call · 78% likely The U.S. will not file its first material-support-for-terrorism prosecution tied specifically to the July 16 Juárez Cartel/Los Viagras FTO designation within 60 days of publication.
• 16 Jul 26No. 16 U.S. designates Juárez Cartel and Los Viagras as terrorists as Sheinbaum rejects DEA's cartel-government claim

Bab al-Mandeb Ship Traffic Halves as Saudi Arabia Shuts Key Pipeline

Updated 13 Sep 26  ·  began 13 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 13 Sep 26Call · 65% likely Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline sustains at least one more attack-driven disruption or shutdown within 12 months of the September 11, 2026 strike (by September 13, 2027), even after this week's damage is repaired.
• 13 Sep 26No. 75 Bab al-Mandeb Ship Traffic Halves as Saudi Arabia Shuts Key Pipeline

China Coast Guard Presses Fourth Kinmen Incursion of the Week

Updated 13 Sep 26  ·  began 3 Sep 26  ·  9 events

• 13 Sep 26No. 75 China Coast Guard Presses Fourth Kinmen Incursion of the Week
• 12 Sep 26No. 74 China Fires Flares at Philippine Coast Guard Aircraft Over Disputed Reefs
• 11 Sep 26No. 73 Philippines Accuses China of Firing Flares at Aircraft Near Spratly Reefs
• 8 Sep 26No. 70 China Expands Coast Guard Patrols Off Taiwan's Pacific Coast, Rehearsing a Future Blockade
• 7 Sep 26Revised to 80% on the record
  A Bloomberg ship-tracking analysis found China's coast guard has patrolled these waters at a rate of about two cutters per month since June and, during a five-day voyage, radioed and "inspected" 198 passing commercial vessels for the first time -- a clear intensification beyond the baseline patrol tempo this call already expected to persist.
• 7 Sep 26Call · 55% likely Japan or the Philippines lodges a formal diplomatic protest, or scrambles or deploys military or coast-guard assets, specifically in response to China's new coast-guard patrol pattern east of Taiwan, within 90 days of the September 7, 2026 report (by December 6, 2026).
• 7 Sep 26No. 69 China's Coast Guard Rehearses Blockade-Style Ship Inspections Off Taiwan's Pacific Coast
• 3 Sep 26Call · 72% likely China's coast guard maintains a patrol tempo east of Taiwan at or above the level observed in the week of September 3, 2026 (multiple-vessel, weekly-or-more law-enforcement patrols) through the following twelve months, rather than reverting to the sporadic pre-August 2026 baseline, even after the Japan-Philippines maritime-delimitation talks conclude (by September 3, 2027).
• 3 Sep 26No. 65 Beijing Ramps Up Coast Guard Patrols, Military Drills Near Taiwan After Japan-Philippines Maritime Talks

Switzerland Bans Sudanese Gold, Joining EU Sanctions to Choke War Financing

Updated 12 Sep 26  ·  began 12 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 12 Sep 26Call · 72% likely Within 12 months of Switzerland's and the EU's September 2026 Sudanese-gold bans (by September 12, 2027), a credible investigation (a UN Panel of Experts report, an NGO trade-flow analysis, or a wire-service investigation) documents Sudanese-origin gold continuing to reach international markets via a third-country transshipment route, rather than showing a material, sustained drop in Sudanese gold reaching world markets.
• 12 Sep 26No. 74 Switzerland Bans Sudanese Gold, Joining EU Sanctions to Choke War Financing

Peru Formally Joins Washington's "Shield of the Americas"; China's Embassy Pushes Back

Updated 12 Sep 26  ·  began 4 Sep 26  ·  5 events

• 12 Sep 26No. 74 Peru Formally Joins Washington's "Shield of the Americas"; China's Embassy Pushes Back
• 11 Sep 26No. 73 Beijing Rebuts Rubio Over Peru Remarks as His Coalition-Building Tour Concludes
• 9 Sep 26No. 71 Rubio Signs Colombia Deals, Announces Peru's Entry Into Americas Shield Coalition
• 8 Sep 26No. 70 Rubio Opens First Colombia and Peru Visits, Touring Region's Newly Aligned Governments
• 4 Sep 26No. 66 Rubio to Make First Colombia Trip as New President De la Espriella Presses “Shield of the Americas” Bid

Treasury Dismantles $24 Billion Southeast Asian Scam-Economy Marketplace Xinbi Guarantee

Updated 10 Sep 26  ·  began 10 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 10 Sep 26Call · 68% likely Within nine months of the September 9 Xinbi Guarantee sanctions, a blockchain-analytics tracker (Chainalysis, TRM Labs, or Elliptic) reports a successor guarantee platform has absorbed the bulk of Xinbi's displaced transaction volume, rather than showing a net contraction in Southeast Asia's scam-related crypto flows.
• 10 Sep 26No. 72 Treasury Dismantles $24 Billion Southeast Asian Scam-Economy Marketplace Xinbi Guarantee

Rubio Pledges $45 Million, Designates Los Tiguerones a Terrorist Group on Ecuador Visit

Updated 10 Sep 26  ·  began 10 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 10 Sep 26Call · 65% likely The US or Ecuadorian forces conduct a lethal vessel-interdiction strike publicly attributed to Los Tiguerones within 60 days of its September 9 foreign-terrorist-organization designation.
• 10 Sep 26No. 72 Rubio Pledges $45 Million, Designates Los Tiguerones a Terrorist Group on Ecuador Visit

Saudi Arabia Enters Yemen's War Directly as Houthi Strikes on Aramco Wound 73

Updated 8 Sep 26  ·  began 8 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 8 Sep 26No. 70 Saudi Arabia Enters Yemen's War Directly as Houthi Strikes on Aramco Wound 73
• 8 Sep 26FLASH Saudi Arabia confirms Houthi strikes wounded 73, sparked fires at Aramco energy sites in heaviest assault since ceasefire collapse
• 8 Sep 26FLASH Saudi Arabia strikes Yemeni provinces as Houthis claim retaliatory hits on Saudi airport, air base, Aramco sites

Malaysia and Thailand to Streamline Cross-Border Security Cooperation, Coordinate Fencing

Updated 8 Sep 26  ·  began 8 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 8 Sep 26Call · 30% unlikely Thailand completes construction of at least one new border-fence segment, in an area along the Malaysia border that Malaysia has not yet fenced, within 12 months of the September 7-8, 2026 coordination talks (by September 8, 2027).
• 8 Sep 26No. 70 Malaysia and Thailand to Streamline Cross-Border Security Cooperation, Coordinate Fencing

French Customs Seizes Multi-Ton Cocaine Cargo Tied to Fugitive Dutch Kingpin

Updated 8 Sep 26  ·  began 8 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 8 Sep 26Call · 12% very unlikely Fugitive Dutch trafficking kingpin Jos Leijdekkers ('Bolle Jos') is arrested or otherwise located by authorities within 90 days of this week's French cocaine seizure tied to his network (by December 7, 2026).
• 8 Sep 26No. 70 French Customs Seizes Multi-Ton Cocaine Cargo Tied to Fugitive Dutch Kingpin

Russian Strike on Kryvyi Rih Shopping Center Kills at Least 16

Updated 7 Sep 26  ·  began 22 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 7 Sep 26Miss No formal European Commission sanctions proposal was tabled or circulated to member states by the Sept 4 deadline; Kallas's package was still in the planning/informal stage, with final target lists unpublished and adoption explicitly aimed at autumn (Oct/Nov), not a tabled proposal within 14 days of the Aug 21 strike.
• 22 Aug 26Call · 68% likely The EU formally tables Kaja Kallas's proposed new Russia sanctions package within 14 days of the August 21, 2026 Kryvyi Rih shopping-center strike.
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 Russian Strike on Kryvyi Rih Shopping Center Kills at Least 16

Cuba's power grid fails nationwide for the sixth time this year as Havana blames US sanctions

Updated 7 Sep 26  ·  began 3 Aug 26  ·  4 events

• 7 Sep 26Hit No formal fuel-rationing decree or grid-tied state-of-emergency declaration was found in the 30 days after the Aug 2-3 blackout; Havana's Aug 8 measures were renewable-energy incentive/tax rules, and by Sept 1-3 Cuba was still managing blackouts affecting up to 70% of the island through ad hoc, informal measures rather than a formal declaration.
• 5 Aug 26No. 36 Cuba's power grid fails nationwide for the sixth time this year as Havana blames US sanctions
• 3 Aug 26Call · 72% likely Cuba's government does not announce a formal energy-emergency measure (expanded fuel rationing or a state-of-emergency declaration tied explicitly to the grid) within 30 days of the August 2-3 nationwide blackout.
• 3 Aug 26No. 34 Cuba suffers its sixth nationwide blackout of 2026 as grid failures keep recurring

Andean Community's top court takes up unprecedented case against Peru's illegal-gold-mining shield law

Updated 7 Sep 26  ·  began 25 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 7 Sep 26Miss As of the most recent coverage near the Sept 3 deadline, the Andean Court of Justice's precautionary-measures request against Peru's REINFO program was still described as pending, with no published interim-suspension order — the court deferred rather than acted within its response window.
• 25 Jul 26Call · 25% unlikely The Andean Court of Justice orders an interim suspension of Peru's REINFO informal-mining program within its 40-day response window (by approximately September 3, 2026).
• 25 Jul 26No. 25 Andean Community's top court takes up unprecedented case against Peru's illegal-gold-mining shield law

Panama Canal deepens draft cuts and halts booking auctions as El Niño outlook firms up

Updated 7 Sep 26  ·  began 21 Jul 26  ·  8 events

• 7 Sep 26Hit The Panama Canal Authority announced a further round of restrictions on Aug 20 — daily transits cut from 36 to 34 (effective Sept 3-4) with a further cut to 32 planned for Sept 15, plus reduced auction slots — citing continued below-normal watershed precipitation, before the Sept 1 deadline.
• 26 Aug 26Revised to 97% on the record
  The ACP announced September 3 Neopanamax capacity cuts (to 9 daily slots) and Panamax cuts (to 25, then 23 from September 15) — a further transit restriction beyond the July 25 auction halt and August 15 draft cut, substantially fulfilling the call ahead of the September 1 deadline; formal resolution follows at the next Reckoning.
• 28 Jul 26Revised to 40% on the record
  The two already-anticipated restrictions proceeded on schedule (Period 3 auctions suspended July 25, draft cut to 14.78m confirmed for August 15), but the ACP's own July 24 statement said current data does not forecast the need for transit restrictions through December 31 -- working against a further, additional restriction landing before September 1.
• 28 Jul 26No. 28 Panama Canal deepens draft cuts and halts booking auctions as El Niño outlook firms up
• 26 Jul 26No. 26 Panama Canal tightens draft limits and suspends Panamax auctions as El Niño risk hits 81%
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 Panama Canal tightens draft limits and suspends booking auctions as El Niño risk hits 81%
• 21 Jul 26Call · 65% likely The Panama Canal Authority announces at least one further transit or booking restriction, beyond the already-scheduled July 25 auction halt and August 15 draft cut, before September 1.
• 21 Jul 26No. 21 Panama Canal deepens draft cuts, halts booking auctions as El Niño builds

Italy expels two Russian attachés as the spy-ring case that implicated four soldiers widens

Updated 7 Sep 26  ·  began 8 Jul 26  ·  4 events

• 7 Sep 26Hit Consistent across sources through early September, the four active-duty personnel remain 'under investigation' (indagati) with no formal charge, arrest, or military-justice indictment reported; only two ex-intelligence officers (a separate population) were charged in July.
• 10 Jul 26No. 10 Italy expels two Russian attachés as the spy-ring case that implicated four soldiers widens
• 8 Jul 26Call · 68% likely None of the four active-duty Italian military personnel under investigation in the Rome espionage case will be formally charged within 60 days — the case will still be described as an active investigation, not a completed prosecution.
• 8 Jul 26No. 8 Italy arrests two in Russian espionage case implicating four active-duty military personnel

EU's Group of Five Names Uganda and Rwanda as Leading Return-Hub Candidates

Updated 6 Sep 26  ·  began 3 Sep 26  ·  3 events

• 6 Sep 26Call · 50% roughly even Either Uganda or Rwanda is formally confirmed by name as the EU Group of Five's chosen return-hub partner by November 30, 2026.
• 6 Sep 26No. 68 EU's Group of Five Names Uganda and Rwanda as Leading Return-Hub Candidates
• 3 Sep 26No. 65 Amnesty Warns EU-Rwanda Return-Hub Push Risks “Black Hole” Ahead of September 4 Ministers’ Meeting

Third Car Bombing in a Week Hits Zacatecas Police Station; Officials Blame CJNG

Updated 5 Sep 26  ·  began 28 Aug 26  ·  4 events

• 1 Sep 26No. 63 Third Car Bombing in a Week Hits Zacatecas Police Station; Officials Blame CJNG
• 31 Aug 26No. 62 Hong Kong Police Make 321 Arrests, Seize HK$130 Million in Drugs in Seven-Week Operation
• 31 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Car bomb wounds seven outside police station in Zacatecas, third such attack on Mexican trafficking-corridor state in a week +2 updates · latest 5 Sep 26
• 28 Aug 26No. 59 Hong Kong Customs Seizes HK$36.2 Million in Cocaine in Mong Kok Raid

Moldova Signs Working Arrangement With EU Drugs Agency to Align Trafficking-Route Data, Legislation

Updated 4 Sep 26  ·  began 4 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 4 Sep 26Call · 50% roughly even Moldova's new Working Arrangement with the European Union Drugs Agency produces at least one publicly cited joint interdiction or trafficking-route disruption using EUDA-shared intelligence within 12 months of the September 3, 2026 signing.
• 4 Sep 26No. 66 Moldova Signs Working Arrangement With EU Drugs Agency to Align Trafficking-Route Data, Legislation

Bulgarian Nationals Arrested After Firebomb Attack on Munich Defense Firm Amid Widening Sabotage Pattern

Updated 4 Sep 26  ·  began 3 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 4 Sep 26No. 66 Bulgarian Nationals Arrested After Firebomb Attack on Munich Defense Firm Amid Widening Sabotage Pattern
• 3 Sep 26No. 65 Germany Investigates Two New Power-Substation Sabotage Incidents, Widening Infrastructure-Attack Pattern

Turkish Intelligence Chief’s Secret Athens Visit Opens Back-Channel on Migrant Smuggling, Organized Crime

Updated 3 Sep 26  ·  began 3 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 3 Sep 26Call · 65% likely Greece does not announce a concrete joint anti-smuggling or organized-crime operation with Turkey stemming from the Kalin-Demiris intelligence back-channel within 60 days of September 2, 2026 (by November 2, 2026).
• 3 Sep 26No. 65 Turkish Intelligence Chief’s Secret Athens Visit Opens Back-Channel on Migrant Smuggling, Organized Crime

Ceuta Unrest Turns Violent as Soldiers Ambushed; Spain Requests Emergency EU Help

Updated 3 Sep 26  ·  began 13 Aug 26  ·  14 events

• 29 Aug 26No. 60 Ceuta Unrest Turns Violent as Soldiers Ambushed; Spain Requests Emergency EU Help
• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Ceuta unrest turns violent as soldiers ambushed, Spain requests EU emergency assistance +1 update · latest 3 Sep 26
• 26 Aug 26No. 57 Spain Seeks Emergency EU Funds, Reforms Asylum Law After Ceuta Migrant Surge
• 24 Aug 26Hit The rumored August 15 'border opening' fizzled — Morocco pre-positioned security and only a small handful of people attempted crossings, all turned back; no mass surge materialized.
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Ceuta holds through a second contained push as detained migrants stage asylum protests
• 16 Aug 26Revised to 97% on the record
  Morocco's August 15 security operation arrested 111 people (109 Sub-Saharan African migrants, 2 Moroccan organizers) attempting to cross near Ceuta -- well under the 500 threshold and a small fraction of July's 72,000-plus surge -- putting the actual crossing-attempt outcome squarely behind the sub-500 call.
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 Ceuta border holds as Morocco arrests 111 migrants, a fraction of July's surge
• 16 Aug 26PRIORITY Ceuta border holds against threatened Aug. 15 mass crossing as Morocco arrests up to 294 migrants +1 update · latest 17 Aug 26
• 15 Aug 26No. 46 Spain faces a threatened repeat Ceuta crossing on the date border-workers' unions say Madrid was warned and did nothing
• 14 Aug 26Revised to 80% on the record
  The social-media campaign urging an August 15 Ceuta crossing has 'effectively disappeared from Facebook' per Meta enforcement, per Euronews, removing the disinformation vector that drove July's surge and reinforcing the sub-500 call.
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 Morocco's fresh Ceuta crossing threat fades from social media ahead of the rumored August 15 surge
• 14 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Morocco and Spain mobilize forces ahead of threatened Aug. 15 mass migrant crossing into Ceuta +1 update · latest 15 Aug 26
• 13 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Fewer than 500 people will attempt an irregular crossing into Ceuta around the rumored August 15, 2026 'border opening.'
• 13 Aug 26No. 44 Morocco moves to head off a repeat Ceuta crossing surge as fresh disinformation floats an August 15 "border opening"

Southeast Asia’s Cyberscam Gangs Regroup in Laos, Myanmar, and Malaysia After Cambodia’s Crackdown

Updated 2 Sep 26  ·  began 2 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 2 Sep 26Call · 65% likely Within 12 months of September 2, 2026, credible reporting (UN, civil-society, or national law-enforcement) does not show a net reduction in the total number of foreign nationals held in Southeast Asian cyberscam compounds across Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, and Malaysia combined, by September 2, 2027.
• 2 Sep 26No. 64 Southeast Asia’s Cyberscam Gangs Regroup in Laos, Myanmar, and Malaysia After Cambodia’s Crackdown

Xi Jinping Makes First Egypt Visit in a Decade as Beijing Courts a Middle East Rattled by the Iran War

Updated 2 Sep 26  ·  began 2 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 2 Sep 26No. 64 Xi Jinping Makes First Egypt Visit in a Decade as Beijing Courts a Middle East Rattled by the Iran War
• 2 Sep 26PRIORITY Peru severs diplomatic ties with Iran, citing Middle East escalation and IAEA obstruction

Car Bomb Kills One, Wounds 11 at Police Station in Colombia’s Cúcuta, on Venezuela Border

Updated 2 Sep 26  ·  began 2 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 2 Sep 26No. 64 Car Bomb Kills One, Wounds 11 at Police Station in Colombia’s Cúcuta, on Venezuela Border
• 2 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Car bomb kills one, wounds 15 at police station in Colombia's Cúcuta border area with Venezuela

Nearly 22,000 Displaced in a Week as Fighting Intensifies in Sudan’s Blue Nile State, UN Says

Updated 2 Sep 26  ·  began 31 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 2 Sep 26No. 64 Nearly 22,000 Displaced in a Week as Fighting Intensifies in Sudan’s Blue Nile State, UN Says
• 31 Aug 26No. 62 Nearly 20,000 Displaced in Sudan’s Blue Nile as RSF-Allied Forces Claim Two Army Bases

Poland Opens Terrorism Probe After Second Overnight Fire Hits Top Drone Maker

Updated 1 Sep 26  ·  began 31 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 1 Sep 26No. 63 Poland Opens Terrorism Probe After Second Overnight Fire Hits Top Drone Maker
• 31 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Deliberate fire and second overnight blaze hit Poland's top drone maker as prosecutors open terrorism probe

Colombian Airstrike Kills 20 Mordisco Fighters in Guaviare, Days After Officials Confirmed Child Deaths in Earlier Raid

Updated 1 Sep 26  ·  began 1 Sep 26  ·  2 events

• 1 Sep 26No. 63 Colombian Airstrike Kills 20 Mordisco Fighters in Guaviare, Days After Officials Confirmed Child Deaths in Earlier Raid
• 1 Sep 26IMMEDIATE Colombian airstrike kills 20 Mordisco fighters in Guaviare, days after acknowledging child deaths in earlier bombing

Punjab Police Arrest Man Accused of Streaming Military-Area CCTV Feed to Pakistan’s ISI

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 28 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 31 Aug 26No. 62 Punjab Police Arrest Man Accused of Streaming Military-Area CCTV Feed to Pakistan’s ISI
• 29 Aug 26No. 60 Delhi Police Bust ISI-Linked Espionage Cell That Funneled SIM Cards to Pakistan via Dubai
• 28 Aug 26No. 59 Delhi Police Bust ISI-Backed Espionage Module, Arrest Couple Who Sent SIM Cards to Pakistan

Iran detains two French diplomats over alleged "foreign interference"

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 16 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 31 Aug 26Hit Iran's Intelligence Ministry detained the two French diplomats around August 15 and released them the same day, after roughly four hours, through diplomatic-police channels; no formal charges were filed, though Iran later declared them persona non grata (August 18) rather than prosecuting them.
• 16 Aug 26Call · 60% likely Iran releases both detained French diplomats within 14 days of their August 15 detention without filing formal charges.
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 Iran detains two French diplomats over alleged "foreign interference"

Colombia's earthquake toll nears 290 as crews shift to recovery; rains destroy Venezuela's quake-survivor tents

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 10 Aug 26  ·  8 events

• 31 Aug 26Hit Colombia's Foreign Ministry sent a formal diplomatic note requesting international support and the government formally asked the UN to complement the national response; OCHA confirmed direct contact and issued a $148.1M Humanitarian Response Plan addendum within days of the quake.
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Colombia's earthquake toll nears 290 as crews shift to recovery; rains destroy Venezuela's quake-survivor tents
• 13 Aug 26No. 44 Colombia's earthquake toll climbs past 265 dead as more than 4,100 remain missing
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 Colombia earthquake toll climbs to at least 181 dead as Bogotá asks the UN to help lead the disaster response
• 11 Aug 26Call · 45% roughly even Colombia's national government will formally request UN OCHA-coordinated international disaster assistance for the August 10 earthquake within two weeks (by August 25, 2026).
• 11 Aug 26No. 42 Colombia's earthquake death toll jumps to at least 132 as new government declares national emergency
• 10 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Colombia earthquake death toll jumps to at least 111, five-fold above initial count +8 updates · latest 17 Aug 26
• 10 Aug 26PRIORITY 7.4-magnitude earthquake kills at least 20 in western Colombia, felt near Venezuela and Ecuador borders

US-brokered Venezuela transition talks open in Caracas — without Machado at the table

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 9 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 31 Aug 26Miss Machado's faction never rejected the talks' outcome; instead her adviser Pedro Urruchurtu welcomed the announced Supreme Court/judicial reform as a good starting point, and by late August opposition figures were touting the process as producing concrete institutional change.
• 9 Aug 26Call · 62% likely María Corina Machado's faction publicly rejects the outcome of the August 6-12 Caracas transition talks within two weeks of their conclusion (by August 26, 2026).
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 US-brokered Venezuela transition talks open in Caracas — without Machado at the table

Meta and TikTok agree to counter smuggler disinformation on Spain border crossings as Spain-Italy border checks continue

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 30 Jul 26  ·  25 events

• 31 Aug 26Miss Italy formally suspended Schengen with Spain within about 12 hours of Tajani's remarks — Meloni, Tajani and Salvini announced it the evening of July 31, with Interior Ministry approval the next morning, and Italy extended the suspension a further 15 days on August 31 citing continued Ceuta tension.
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 Meta and TikTok agree to counter smuggler disinformation on Spain border crossings as Spain-Italy border checks continue
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Spain's retaliatory border checks on Italy go live as researchers trace Ceuta unrest to Russian-linked networks
• 8 Aug 26No. 39 Spain imposes reciprocal border checks on Italy, escalating the Ceuta-crisis Schengen standoff
• 8 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Spain imposes border checks on Italy, following through on Ceuta-crisis retaliation threat
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Ceuta's leader tells EU Parliament Madrid ignored warnings before migrant surge, as death toll stays disputed
• 7 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Italy rejects Spain's Ceuta ultimatum, vows to keep border checks through Aug. 15
• 7 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Spain gives Italy 48-hour ultimatum to lift Ceuta-crisis border checks, threatens retaliation
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Ceuta's confirmed migrant death toll nearly doubles to 141 as more bodies surface in Moroccan waters
• 5 Aug 26No. 36 EU ministers call Ceuta a border "stress test" passed, but the death toll keeps splitting and Italy's Schengen suspension holds
• 5 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Ceuta migrant death toll more than doubles to 141 after 63 more bodies found in Moroccan waters +2 updates · latest 7 Aug 26
• 4 Aug 26No. 35 EU ministers meet on Ceuta as the death toll splits three ways and Spain's regional leader calls the crossing "an atrocity"
• 3 Aug 26No. 34 Ceuta death toll passes 72 by Spain's count as Morocco disputes it at 11, ahead of Tuesday's EU crisis talks
• 2 Aug 26No. 33 Ceuta's death toll climbs to 67 as Czechia joins Italy in seeking Spain's suspension from Schengen
• 1 Aug 26Revised to 3% on the record
  Italy's Schengen suspension against Spain took effect Friday, formally closing air and sea borders for a month -- the exact action this call bet against, now already realized.
• 1 Aug 26No. 32 Ceuta's migrant surge recedes as nearly all arrivals return to Morocco, but Italy's Schengen rupture with Spain holds
• 1 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Ceuta migrant crisis passes its peak at 67 dead as Czech Republic joins Italy in seeking Spain's suspension from Schengen +4 updates · latest 4 Aug 26
• 31 Jul 26Call · 55% likely Italy does not formally move to suspend Schengen with Spain within 30 days of Tajani's July 31 remarks (by August 30).
• 31 Jul 26No. 31 Ceuta collapses under record migrant surge as Italy pushes to suspend Schengen with Spain
• 31 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Italy suspends Schengen with Spain over Ceuta crisis, closes air and sea borders for a month +3 updates · latest 1 Aug 26
• 31 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Ceuta death toll nearly doubles to 57 as roughly 25,000 of the 60,000 who crossed return voluntarily to Morocco
• 31 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Ceuta migrant crisis escalates: death toll nearly doubles to 34, crossings near 60,000, as Italy's Meloni threatens Schengen suspension and France tightens border checks
• 31 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Spain says nearly 50,000 migrants crossed into Ceuta from Morocco in 24 hours, the largest surge since 2021, as death toll hits 18 and Italy threatens to force a Schengen suspension
• 30 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Spain deploys troops to Ceuta after migrants break through border fencing in what officials call a legal loophole, not a diplomatic rupture +2 updates · latest 31 Jul 26
• 30 Jul 26IMMEDIATE Ceuta hit by extraordinary migrant surge, over 1,500 cross by sea from Morocco in days, prompting call for a national emergency

Belgian court denies bail to Canadian NATO intern accused of spying, as Ottawa reviews screening

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 25 Jul 26  ·  5 events

• 31 Aug 26Miss Belgian prosecutors stayed formally silent on the beneficiary state, but within 5 days national-security sources told the Globe and Mail the intern was accused of spying for China, corroborated by other outlets — a leaked investigative detail naming the state, which the call's own counter-signal treats as disqualifying.
• 30 Jul 26No. 30 Belgian court denies bail to Canadian NATO intern accused of spying, as Ottawa reviews screening
• 28 Jul 26Call · 50% roughly even Belgian prosecutors will not publicly name the foreign country behind the NATO-intern espionage case within 30 days of the July 25 arrest.
• 28 Jul 26No. 28 Ottawa vows full probe as Canadian NATO intern faces Belgian espionage charges
• 25 Jul 26No. 25 Canadian NATO intern arrested in Belgium on spying charges

Liberia seizes record $317 million cocaine haul, dismisses deputy police commissioner over interference

Updated 31 Aug 26  ·  began 23 Jul 26  ·  5 events

• 31 Aug 26Hit Liberia charged additional named officials — LNP Financial Crime Division chief Anthony T. Blaye and Highway Patrol Section chief Wadell W. Kwarbo, accused of escorting the shipment in marked police vehicles — within days, and the case widened further with former VP Jewel Howard-Taylor charged by mid-August.
• 1 Aug 26Revised to 95% on the record
  Liberia's president fired a dozen officials -- including police, airport, and intelligence personnel -- well beyond Deputy Commissioner Johnny Dean's earlier dismissal, squarely satisfying this call's threshold.
• 26 Jul 26Call · 60% likely Liberia's government names or charges at least one additional police or port official in the $317 million cocaine case within 30 days, beyond Deputy Commissioner Johnny Dean's dismissal.
• 26 Jul 26No. 26 Liberia seizes record $317 million cocaine haul, dismisses deputy police commissioner over interference
• 23 Jul 26No. 23 Liberia seizes record 3,971 kg of cocaine worth $318 million in Monrovia-area warehouse raid

Mutinous Soldiers Storm Niger's Presidential Palace and Airport in Apparent Coup Bid

Updated 30 Aug 26  ·  began 30 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 30 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Niger's junta suffers at least one further armed mutiny or coup attempt against Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani within 90 days of the August 29, 2026 attack on Niamey's airport and presidential palace (by November 28, 2026).
• 30 Aug 26No. 61 Mutinous Soldiers Storm Niger's Presidential Palace and Airport in Apparent Coup Bid
• 30 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Mutinous soldiers attack Niger's presidential palace and airport in Niamey +1 update · latest 30 Aug 26

Colombian soldiers kill FARC dissident commander behind drone-bomb attacks on police

Updated 30 Aug 26  ·  began 30 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 30 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Colombian soldiers kill FARC dissident commander behind drone-bomb attacks on police

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

Haiti Gang Releases 13 Kenscoff Hostages, Dozens Still Held

Updated 30 Aug 26  ·  began 25 Aug 26  ·  8 events

• 30 Aug 26No. 61 Haiti Gang Releases 13 Kenscoff Hostages, Dozens Still Held
• 29 Aug 26No. 60 Haiti Gang Leader Threatens to Execute Kenscoff Hostages, Targets District Housing US Embassy
• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Haitian gang releases 13 women and children from Kenscoff mass kidnapping
• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Haiti gang leader threatens to execute Kenscoff hostages, separate threat targets Tabarre district housing US embassy
• 26 Aug 26No. 57 Haiti Gang Coalition's Kenscoff Toll Rises to 47 Dead, More Than 50 Kidnapped
• 26 Aug 26IMMEDIATE UN confirms 47 dead, over 50 kidnapped in Haiti's Kenscoff gang massacre as toll firms
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Haiti Gang Coalition Kills Dozens Sheltering in a Kenscoff Church
• 25 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Gang coalition Viv Ansanm kills up to 40 in attack on church sheltering displaced people near Port-au-Prince +3 updates · latest 26 Aug 26

Trump Announces Deal Giving US Majority Control of 65 Billion Barrels of Venezuelan Oil

Updated 29 Aug 26  ·  began 29 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 29 Aug 26No. 60 Trump Announces Deal Giving US Majority Control of 65 Billion Barrels of Venezuelan Oil
• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Trump announces deal granting US majority control of 65 billion barrels of Venezuelan oil reserves

Peru's new government seeks 120-day decree powers to militarize border security, prisons against organized crime

Updated 29 Aug 26  ·  began 29 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Peru's new government seeks 120-day decree powers to militarize border security, prisons against organized crime

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

US forces sink Los Choneros' Pacific fuel-supply ship in coordinated strike with Ecuador

Updated 29 Aug 26  ·  began 29 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US forces sink Los Choneros' Pacific fuel-supply ship in coordinated strike with Ecuador

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

US deports Ecuador's ex-interior minister, accused in 2023 presidential candidate's assassination

Updated 29 Aug 26  ·  began 29 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 29 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US deports Ecuador's ex-interior minister, accused in 2023 presidential candidate's assassination

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

Sudan Lifts Khartoum's Two-Year Curfew and State of Emergency

Updated 28 Aug 26  ·  began 28 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 28 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Sudan's Khartoum State foreign-national entry restriction, imposed alongside the August 27 curfew lift, remains in force unrelaxed to pre-emergency visa norms six months out.
• 28 Aug 26No. 59 Sudan Lifts Khartoum's Two-Year Curfew and State of Emergency

Colombia Declares Petro's “Total Peace” Dead, Extradites Five Armed-Group Negotiators to US

Updated 28 Aug 26  ·  began 27 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 28 Aug 26No. 59 Colombia Declares Petro's “Total Peace” Dead, Extradites Five Armed-Group Negotiators to US
• 27 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Colombia's De la Espriella declares 'Total Peace' over, signs extradition of five armed-group negotiators to US

China stages Taiwan Strait live-fire drills as Rubio warns coast guard deployments “undermine regional stability”

Updated 28 Aug 26  ·  began 15 Jul 26  ·  14 events

• 28 Aug 26Revised to 85% on the record
  Taiwan's coast guard recorded a third straight monthly record in July -- 244 Chinese government/research vessels, up from 55 in June and 30 in May -- putting the running average far above the 50/month threshold and reinforcing that the elevated tempo is now the baseline, not a spike.
• 24 Aug 26Hit Well within the 30-day window, China Coast Guard vessels fired water cannons at Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal (~July 23-25) and separately confronted Philippine personnel near Second Thomas Shoal — multiple physical confrontations occurred.
• 28 Jul 26Revised to 95% on the record
  Chinese vessels fired water cannon at Philippine vessels near Scarborough Shoal on both July 24 and July 25 -- a further physical confrontation, well within the 30-day window and directly fulfilling the call -- and a US carrier strike group has since begun patrolling the area.
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 China stages Taiwan Strait live-fire drills as Rubio warns coast guard deployments “undermine regional stability”
• 24 Jul 26No. 24 China fires water cannon at Philippine vessel with CNN crew aboard, third Scarborough Shoal clash this week
• 23 Jul 26No. 23 China stages two days of live-fire drills in Taiwan Strait, timed to a fisheries survey asserting Beijing’s claims
• 21 Jul 26Call · 70% likely A further physical confrontation between Chinese and Philippine vessels or personnel occurs at a South China Sea shoal within 30 days of the July 20-21 Second Thomas Shoal incident.
• 21 Jul 26No. 21 China, Philippines summon ambassadors after Coast Guard clubs Filipino sailor at Second Thomas Shoal
• 21 Jul 26IMMEDIATE China Coast Guard clash injures Philippine sailor near Second Thomas Shoal; Manila, Beijing summon each other's envoys +1 update · latest 26 Jul 26
• 20 Jul 26Call · 70% likely China's coast-guard presence around Taiwan will average above 50 government-vessel sightings per month over the next six months, i.e. the current elevated tempo becomes a sustained new baseline rather than a temporary spike.
• 20 Jul 26No. 20 Taiwan reports 83% jump in Chinese coast guard activity around the island
• 18 Jul 26No. 18 Taiwan orders 27 sea and underwater drones for its Coast Guard as Beijing's gray-zone pressure grows
• 16 Jul 26No. 16 Taiwan mobilizes HIMARS and anti-ship missiles for five-day drill as US Coast Guard cutters reach the Pacific
• 15 Jul 26No. 15 Taiwan orders sea drones as China's patrols intensify and draw a U.S. Coast Guard response

Hong Kong Customs Seizes HK$11 Million in Smuggled Pharmaceuticals

Updated 27 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 27 Aug 26No. 58 Hong Kong Customs Seizes HK$11 Million in Smuggled Pharmaceuticals
• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Hong Kong Seizes 1.4 Million Smuggled Cigarettes From Passenger Luggage
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 Hong Kong Customs Seizes 118kg of Smuggled Pests and Frozen Rodents

U.S. Suspends Consular Operations in Mexicali Over Cartel Attack Threat

Updated 26 Aug 26  ·  began 26 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 26 Aug 26No. 57 U.S. Suspends Consular Operations in Mexicali Over Cartel Attack Threat
• 26 Aug 26IMMEDIATE US suspends government activities in Mexicali over cartel attack plot on police, prosecutor's office

Italy Detains German Rescue Ship as Berlin-Rome Migration Rift Widens

Updated 25 Aug 26  ·  began 24 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Italy Detains German Rescue Ship as Berlin-Rome Migration Rift Widens
• 24 Aug 26No. 55 Italy Detains Sea-Watch 5 Rescue Ship as Ireland Presses to Return Migrants to Rome

Tanker Disabled Off Oman as Treasury Opens “Economic D-Day” Sanctions Campaign on Iran

Updated 25 Aug 26  ·  began 21 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 25 Aug 26No. 56 Tanker Disabled Off Oman as Treasury Opens “Economic D-Day” Sanctions Campaign on Iran
• 25 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Unidentified projectile disables oil tanker off Oman in Strait of Hormuz
• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Trump Declares “Economic D-Day” on Iran as Treasury Sanctions Hezbollah Cash-Courier Network

Vietnam Closes Transit-Goods Loophole in Customs Law After US Counterfeit-Trade Probe

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 24 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 24 Aug 26Call · 55% likely Vietnamese customs does not publicly report a large-scale interdiction of transiting counterfeit or IP-infringing goods under its revised customs law's new transit powers within six months of the law's March 2027 effective date (by September 30, 2027).
• 24 Aug 26No. 55 Vietnam Closes Transit-Goods Loophole in Customs Law After US Counterfeit-Trade Probe

Syria and Israel Hold First Jordan-Mediated Talks With Both Intelligence Chiefs at the Table

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 24 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 24 Aug 26Call · 75% likely Syria and Israel do not sign a formal, publicly announced security arrangement within 90 days of the August 23 Jordan-mediated talks (by November 21, 2026), even if informal de-confliction channels develop.
• 24 Aug 26No. 55 Syria and Israel Hold First Jordan-Mediated Talks With Both Intelligence Chiefs at the Table

Iran’s New Security Council Chief Floats Reconsidering the Nuclear Weapons Ban

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 24 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 24 Aug 26No. 55 Iran’s New Security Council Chief Floats Reconsidering the Nuclear Weapons Ban
• 24 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran's security chief questions the nuclear weapons ban, says the NPT gave Tehran no protection from US strikes

Chihuahua admits screwworm containment "will take over a year" as US eyes limited August 24 cattle-port reopening

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 10 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 24 Aug 26Miss A new USDA-confirmed screwworm detection occurred in Sonora (Munihuasa, ~Aug 19-20) before Aug 24, which this call's own counter-signal defines as the trigger — even though the Douglas port did open on schedule Aug 24.
• 10 Aug 26Call · 65% likely USDA's planned reopening of the Douglas, Arizona port to Mexican cattle, bison, and horse imports proceeds on schedule on August 24, 2026, without a new screwworm-related delay.
• 10 Aug 26No. 41 Chihuahua admits screwworm containment "will take over a year" as US eyes limited August 24 cattle-port reopening

Trump calls Canada "nasty" as trade talks drag toward the August 19 tariff deadline

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 5 Aug 26  ·  5 events

• 24 Aug 26Miss Trump announced a tentative trade agreement and paused the 50% tariffs for 3 days hours before the Aug 19 deadline, so the tariffs did not take effect on schedule as the claim required.
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 Trump calls Canada "nasty" as trade talks drag toward the August 19 tariff deadline
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Canada's Carney says Ottawa will "get tougher" if no US trade deal is reached before the August 19 tariff deadline
• 5 Aug 26Call · 60% likely The US and Canada do not finalize a steel-and-aluminum tariff-rate-quota deal before the August 19 deadline, and Washington's 50% tariffs on the announced roughly $20 billion of Canadian exports take effect as scheduled.
• 5 Aug 26No. 36 Canada's trade minister returns to Washington as a steel and aluminum tariff-quota deal resurfaces ahead of an August 19 deadline

Trump administration weighs first-ever U.S. strikes on Mali’s JNIM insurgency

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 23 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 24 Aug 26Hit As of late August 2026, US strikes on JNIM in Mali remain under internal deliberation only — no strike has been executed, per reporting citing operational and basing constraints.
• 23 Jul 26Call · 62% likely The U.S. will not conduct any military strikes inside Mali within 30 days of the July 22 report of internal deliberations over JNIM strike options.
• 23 Jul 26No. 23 Trump administration weighs first-ever U.S. strikes on Mali’s JNIM insurgency

South Korea’s customs service posts record H1 haul of drugs bound for its own market, driven by traveler smuggling

Updated 24 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 24 Aug 26Hit On Aug 5, 2026, within the 30-day window, KCS announced a new port-focused N-stage surveillance network expanding inspections to crew, port entrants, and yachts, plus a dedicated drug-intelligence task force.
• 22 Jul 26Call · 65% likely The Korea Customs Service announces at least one concrete new traveler-screening measure -- expanded passenger risk-profiling, added K-9 units, or a new advance-passenger data requirement -- within 30 days of its record H1 2026 seizure report.
• 22 Jul 26No. 22 South Korea’s customs service posts record H1 haul of drugs bound for its own market, driven by traveler smuggling

Iran Widens Hormuz Passage for Iraqi Tankers as Baghdad Hedges With Other Routes

Updated 23 Aug 26  ·  began 23 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 23 Aug 26No. 54 Iran Widens Hormuz Passage for Iraqi Tankers as Baghdad Hedges With Other Routes
• 23 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iran grants Iraqi tankers Hormuz passage as nightly transits nearly double

Bodies Recovered From Tunisia Migrant-Boat Sinking as Death Toll Disputed

Updated 23 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 23 Aug 26No. 54 Bodies Recovered From Tunisia Migrant-Boat Sinking as Death Toll Disputed
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 At Least 13 Missing as Migrant Boat Bound for Italy Capsizes Off Tunisia

Malaysia and Brunei Advance Land-Boundary Talks, Ease Cross-Border Travel

Updated 22 Aug 26  ·  began 22 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 22 Aug 26Call · 68% likely Malaysia and Brunei do not finalize (fully ratify) their land-boundary demarcation by their own announced 2027 target.
• 22 Aug 26No. 53 Malaysia and Brunei Advance Land-Boundary Talks, Ease Cross-Border Travel

More Than 350 Migrants Reach Greece From Libya in a Single Day

Updated 22 Aug 26  ·  began 20 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 22 Aug 26No. 53 More Than 350 Migrants Reach Greece From Libya in a Single Day
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Two Migrant Boats Founder Off Libya in a Single Day; At Least 16 Dead

UN Warns South Sudan’s Elections Risk Atrocity Crimes Amid Peace-Deal Delays

Updated 22 Aug 26  ·  began 20 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 22 Aug 26No. 53 UN Warns South Sudan’s Elections Risk Atrocity Crimes Amid Peace-Deal Delays
• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Sudan’s Kordofan War Displaces 200,000 as UN Warns South Sudan Elections Risk Atrocity Crimes
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 UN: More Than 200,000 Displaced Across Sudan’s Kordofan as Fighting and Floods Intensify

Libya-to-Crete route becomes Greece's dominant crossing point as Frontex refocuses and deaths spike

Updated 22 Aug 26  ·  began 17 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 22 Aug 26Revised to 66% on the record
  A single-day surge of 350+ migrants via the Libya-Crete route on August 21 reinforces the corridor's dominance over the Turkey-Aegean route, consistent with the call.
• 17 Aug 26Call · 60% likely The Libya-to-Crete corridor will still be Greece's single largest migrant-arrival route, ahead of the Turkey-Aegean crossing, in August 2027.
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Libya-to-Crete route becomes Greece's dominant crossing point as Frontex refocuses and deaths spike

Russian drone strike shuts Ukraine-Moldova border crossing at Tabaky

Updated 21 Aug 26  ·  began 21 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 21 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Russian drone strike shuts Ukraine-Moldova border crossing at Tabaky

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

China Completes First-Phase Construction on Antelope Reef, Runway Excavation Begins

Updated 21 Aug 26  ·  began 19 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 21 Aug 26No. 52 China Completes First-Phase Construction on Antelope Reef, Runway Excavation Begins
• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Satellite Images Show China Completing First-Stage Construction at Disputed Paracels Reef
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 China completes first-phase construction of six-kilometer artificial island at Antelope Reef

Somali Piracy Hits 10-Year High as Gunmen Seize Sixth Tanker Since April

Updated 21 Aug 26  ·  began 17 Aug 26  ·  4 events

• 21 Aug 26No. 52 Somali Piracy Hits 10-Year High as Gunmen Seize Sixth Tanker Since April
• 20 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Armed men hijack tanker in Gulf of Aden and divert it toward Somalia, sixth vessel seized since April +1 update · latest 21 Aug 26
• 18 Aug 26No. 49 Somali piracy resurges to a fifth hijacking since April
• 17 Aug 26PRIORITY Suspected Somali pirates hijack cargo ship off Mareeyo, fifth vessel seized since April

Colombia’s de la Espriella Launches Largest Anti-Narco Offensive in a Decade, Abandoning Petro’s “Total Peace”

Updated 20 Aug 26  ·  began 19 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Colombia’s de la Espriella Launches Largest Anti-Narco Offensive in a Decade, Abandoning Petro’s “Total Peace”
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 Colombia's ELN escalates Catatumbo attacks as de la Espriella's hardline offensive draws retaliation

Australia and Thailand Pledge Joint Crackdown on Southeast Asia’s Scam-Compound Networks

Updated 20 Aug 26  ·  began 19 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Australia and Thailand Pledge Joint Crackdown on Southeast Asia’s Scam-Compound Networks
• 19 Aug 26No. 50 Australia and Thailand sign transnational-crime pact targeting scam networks and drug trafficking

Italy Rejects Germany’s First Attempted Migrant Return Under New EU Pact, Even as Foreign Ministers Pledge “Coordination”

Updated 20 Aug 26  ·  began 17 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 20 Aug 26No. 51 Italy Rejects Germany’s First Attempted Migrant Return Under New EU Pact, Even as Foreign Ministers Pledge “Coordination”
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Italy rejects Germany's bid to return asylum seekers, testing the EU's new migration pact

Ocean carriers hike Panama Canal surcharges up to fivefold as draft cuts bite

Updated 19 Aug 26  ·  began 17 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 19 Aug 26No. 50 Ocean carriers hike Panama Canal surcharges up to fivefold as draft cuts bite
• 18 Aug 26No. 49 Panama Canal cuts draft limits again as NOAA raises El Niño toward "very strong"
• 17 Aug 26No. 48 Panama Canal deepens draft cuts at its biggest locks as El Niño risk builds

Unidentified projectile strikes vessel off Oman in Strait of Hormuz, crew casualty reported

Updated 18 Aug 26  ·  began 18 Aug 26  ·  1 event

• 18 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Unidentified projectile strikes vessel off Oman in Strait of Hormuz, crew casualty reported

Not yet corroborated in a daily edition.

Iran denies drone strike on Iraqi Kurdistan PM's office, calls it a false flag

Updated 18 Aug 26  ·  began 17 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 18 Aug 26No. 49 Iran denies drone strike on Iraqi Kurdistan PM's office, calls it a false flag
• 17 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Iranian drones strike office of Iraqi Kurdistan's prime minister and security chief's home in Erbil +1 update · latest 18 Aug 26

US offers $25 million reward for new CJNG leader as Washington sanctions the cartel's financial network

Updated 17 Aug 26  ·  began 31 Jul 26  ·  6 events

• 17 Aug 26Miss Through the full Aug 1-15 window, the response to Alfonso Fernandez Magallon's arrest in Los Reyes/Periban stayed limited to road blockades and vehicle burnings per multiple independent Mexican outlets; the one firefight in Periban (Aug 8, a lone gunman at a checkpoint) was explicitly reported as not cartel-affiliated, and a later Aug 14 clash near La Piedad involved CJNG (a Carteles Unidos rival), not the named group in the named municipalities — matching the call's own overturn condition of continued blockades/burnings only.
• 7 Aug 26No. 38 US offers $25 million reward for new CJNG leader as Washington sanctions the cartel's financial network
• 3 Aug 26Call · 48% roughly even Mexican security forces report an actual armed clash — beyond blockades and vehicle burnings — with Carteles Unidos-linked gunmen in Michoacán's Los Reyes or Peribán municipalities within two weeks of the August 1 arrest of Alfonso Fernández Magallón.
• 3 Aug 26No. 34 Mexico's army captures $5-million-bounty "Los Reyes" cartel leader in Michoacán, sparking retaliatory blockades
• 1 Aug 26No. 32 Mexico confirms "El R-1" also ordered influencer Valeria Márquez's killing, not just Mayor Manzo's assassination
• 31 Jul 26No. 31 Mexico arrests alleged "Los Rs" leader accused of ordering Uruapan Mayor Carlos Manzo's assassination

Punjab police foil Pakistan-linked Babbar Khalsa bomb plot ahead of Independence Day

Updated 17 Aug 26  ·  began 27 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 17 Aug 26Hit Punjab Police (Counter Intelligence Jalandhar) arrested BKI operative Lakhwinder Singh alias 'Jola' on Aug 10, 2026, recovering a hand grenade from an ISI-directed dead-letter-box near Adampur, Jalandhar — a further BKI disruption before Aug 15 Independence Day, matching the counter-signal window.
• 27 Jul 26Call · 65% likely Indian security services will disrupt at least one more Pakistan-linked Babbar Khalsa International cell or operative before India's August 15 Independence Day.
• 27 Jul 26No. 27 Punjab police foil Pakistan-linked Babbar Khalsa bomb plot ahead of Independence Day

Suspected Somali pirates hijack a chemical tanker off Yemen, reviving a Gulf of Aden threat

Updated 17 Aug 26  ·  began 18 Jul 26  ·  4 events

• 17 Aug 26Miss The most recent hijacking in the cited wave (tanker Asana, seized Jul 17) fell one day before the window opened. Across UKMTO/Ambrey/MARAD/Mica Center secondary reporting for Jul 18–Aug 17, no new Gulf of Aden boarding or hijacking surfaced; a MARAD advisory issued Aug 7 still cited the same pre-window cumulative counts with no increment — matching the call's own stated falsifier of a month with no new incident.
• 18 Jul 26Call · 72% likely At least one additional merchant vessel will be hijacked or boarded by suspected Somali pirates in the Gulf of Aden within 30 days of publication, continuing the wave of at least 18 incidents since April.
• 18 Jul 26No. 18 Suspected Somali pirates hijack a chemical tanker off Yemen, reviving a Gulf of Aden threat
• 18 Jul 26PRIORITY Suspected Somali pirates hijack chemical tanker off Yemen, reviving Gulf of Aden threat

Haiti's electoral council clears 316 parties for the country's first vote in a decade

Updated 17 Aug 26  ·  began 12 Jul 26  ·  3 events

• 17 Aug 26Miss Haiti's CEP published its official 2026-2027 electoral calendar around July 27-28, naming Dec 13, 2026 as the firm first-round election date (runoff Feb 21, 2027), with a full registration/campaign schedule — inside the 30-day window and exactly the counter-signal event.
• 12 Jul 26Call · 70% likely Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council will not publish a finalized electoral calendar with a firm nationwide election date within 30 days of publication.
• 12 Jul 26No. 12 Haiti's electoral council clears 316 parties for the country's first vote in a decade

DRC's Ebola outbreak becomes the fastest-growing ever recorded as cases reach two new provinces

Updated 17 Aug 26  ·  began 12 Jul 26  ·  5 events

• 17 Aug 26Hit WHO/DRC situation reports show confirmed Bundibugyo cases reaching 4,665 by Aug 12 and 4,945 (2,325 deaths) by Aug 15/16 — nearly double the 2,500 threshold, with intense transmission ongoing across 54 health zones.
• 4 Aug 26Revised to 97% on the record
  UN News/WHO put confirmed cases at 3,605 as of July 30 -- already well past the 2,500 threshold with two weeks still to run before the August 15 due date, and the most recent week logged the outbreak's highest-ever weekly case count (567), showing no sign of slowing.
• 15 Jul 26Call · 75% likely Confirmed Ebola cases in the DRC's current Bundibugyo-strain outbreak will exceed 2,500 by August 15.
• 15 Jul 26No. 15 DRC's Ebola outbreak becomes the fastest-growing ever recorded as cases reach two new provinces
• 12 Jul 26No. 12 DR Congo's Ebola outbreak is now the fastest-growing on record, with 600 dead and cases in new provinces

Baghdad and Erbil review border-security and anti-smuggling coordination amid heightened regional threats

Updated 16 Aug 26  ·  began 16 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 16 Aug 26Call · 65% likely The Baghdad-Erbil border-security and customs coordination reviewed on August 15 is not operationalized -- no functioning joint checkpoint, published revenue-sharing mechanism, or joint interdiction operation -- within 6 months (by February 15, 2027).
• 16 Aug 26No. 47 Baghdad and Erbil review border-security and anti-smuggling coordination amid heightened regional threats

NATO jet downs a Russian-linked drone that crossed into Romania from Moldova

Updated 16 Aug 26  ·  began 14 Aug 26  ·  5 events

• 16 Aug 26No. 47 NATO jet downs a Russian-linked drone that crossed into Romania from Moldova
• 16 Aug 26IMMEDIATE NATO jet downs Russian-linked drone that crossed into Romania from Moldova near Ukraine border
• 15 Aug 26No. 46 NATO identifies the jets behind a second Baltic drone shootdown as Finland adds precautionary airspace restrictions
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 NATO jets down a Russian-linked drone over northeast Latvia, the second such shootdown in two months
• 14 Aug 26IMMEDIATE NATO jets down Russian-linked drone that entered Latvian airspace

Flooding displaces nearly 1,000 families in North Darfur as the region's camps already strain under disease

Updated 15 Aug 26  ·  began 11 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 15 Aug 26No. 46 Flooding displaces nearly 1,000 families in North Darfur as the region's camps already strain under disease
• 11 Aug 26Call · 68% likely Chad will register at least 10,000 additional Sudanese refugee arrivals in the Ouaddai and Sila regions combined over the six months following the August 9 West Darfur displacement wave (by February 11, 2027).
• 11 Aug 26No. 42 Nearly 6,000 displaced in a single day as Sudan's West Darfur violence drives Chad border crossings

Venezuela's interim government and opposition hold first post-Maduro talks, agreeing to pursue frozen UK gold for Colombia's earthquake relief

Updated 14 Aug 26  ·  began 14 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 14 Aug 26Call · 65% likely Venezuela's interim government and opposition do not reach a comprehensive agreement on an electoral timeline within 12 months of the August 13, 2026 talks.
• 14 Aug 26No. 45 Venezuela's interim government and opposition hold first post-Maduro talks, agreeing to pursue frozen UK gold for Colombia's earthquake relief

Colombia becomes the 19th member of the US-led Shield of the Americas coalition as Washington pledges $1 billion

Updated 14 Aug 26  ·  began 13 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 14 Aug 26Revised to 55% on the record
  Colombia's defense minister signed the coalition's accession agreement and President de la Espriella offered to host US troops, per El Pais, removing the 'continued Bogota silence' counter-signal -- though actual on-the-ground activity (a patrol, exercise, or staffed office) is still unconfirmed.
• 13 Aug 26Call · 45% roughly even A confirmed, on-the-ground US-Colombia joint operational activity under the Shield of the Americas coalition -- an actual joint patrol, exercise, or staffed liaison presence, not a further policy announcement -- will be independently reported within six months of the August 12, 2026 membership announcement.
• 13 Aug 26No. 44 Colombia becomes the 19th member of the US-led Shield of the Americas coalition as Washington pledges $1 billion

Taiwan and Washington press China over its first joint naval drill with Indonesia east of Taiwan

Updated 13 Aug 26  ·  began 12 Aug 26  ·  3 events

• 13 Aug 26No. 44 Taiwan and Washington press China over its first joint naval drill with Indonesia east of Taiwan
• 12 Aug 26Call · 30% unlikely China will not stage another publicly announced joint naval drill with a third country's navy near Taiwan within 90 days of the mid-August exercise with Indonesia (by November 10, 2026).
• 12 Aug 26No. 43 China holds first publicly announced naval drill with a third country's navy near Taiwan, pairing with Indonesia

Car bomb hits a Cauca toll plaza a day after Colombia's hardline president is sworn in

Updated 13 Aug 26  ·  began 1 Aug 26  ·  7 events

• 13 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Colombia joins US-led anti-cartel coalition, authorizes joint military operations against narco-terrorism
• 9 Aug 26No. 40 Car bomb hits a Cauca toll plaza a day after Colombia's hardline president is sworn in
• 8 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Car bomb hits Colombia toll plaza a day after hardline president's inauguration +3 updates · latest 10 Aug 26
• 6 Aug 26No. 37 Colombia's defense minister warns of a "terrorism" threat to Friday's inauguration, days after police intercept a 420-kilogram explosives shipment
• 5 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Colombian police intercept bus with 420kg of explosives days before De la Espriella's inauguration
• 2 Aug 26No. 33 Truck bomb wounds 14 at a Cúcuta police post, six days before Colombia's hardline president-elect takes office
• 1 Aug 26IMMEDIATE Truck bomb wounds 11 at Cúcuta police station, Colombia's border city with Venezuela, days before hardline president-elect's inauguration +4 updates · latest 3 Aug 26

Car bomb kills Haftar's Benghazi military-intelligence chief in eastern Libya's most senior LNA assassination in years

Updated 12 Aug 26  ·  began 12 Aug 26  ·  2 events

• 12 Aug 26No. 43 Car bomb kills Haftar's Benghazi military-intelligence chief in eastern Libya's most senior LNA assassination in years
• 12 Aug 26PRIORITY Car bomb kills Haftar's Benghazi military intelligence chief, eastern Libya's most senior security-service assassination in months