| 457 | At least one EU return hub outside the bloc is actually receiving deported migrants within 18 months of the September 2026 Group-of-Five announcement (by March 5, 2028). | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEuropean Union | No. 67 · 5 Sep 26 | 5 Mar 28 | Roughly even 50%45% → 50% 2 Oct 26 | Open |
| 456 | People are physically transferred to a third-country EU return hub by 2027-12-31. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastRwandaGermanyNetherlands | No. 121 · 29 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 455 | The Canada-UAE Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement enters into force by 2027-12-31, as announced by either government. | PartnershipsNorth AmericaCanadaUAE | No. 120 · 28 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 27 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 454 | The EU and Senegal sign a Frontex status agreement by 2027-12-31, as published by the European Commission or the Official Journal. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEuropean UnionSenegal | No. 119 · 27 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 453 | A revised Frontex regulation is formally adopted by both the Council and the European Parliament by 31 December 2027. | PartnershipsEuropeEuropean Union | No. 115 · 23 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 27 | Unlikely 35% | Open |
| 452 | Panama awards a permanent, non-temporary concession for at least one of the Balboa or Cristóbal container terminals by 31 December 2027. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 113 · 21 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 451 | Haiti holds a first-round national election vote by December 31, 2027. | Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanHaiti | No. 99 · 7 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 27 | Unlikely 35% | Open |
| 450 | Malaysia and Brunei do not finalize (fully ratify) their land-boundary demarcation by their own announced 2027 target. | PartnershipsAsia / PacificMalaysiaBrunei | No. 53 · 22 Aug 26 | 31 Dec 27 | Likely 68% | Open |
| 449 | The UAE's second Strait-of-Hormuz-bypass pipeline (the ADNOC West-East expansion doubling Fujairah's export capacity) will be operational by December 31, 2027. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastUnited Arab Emirates | No. 10 · 10 Jul 26 | 31 Dec 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 448 | The Panama Canal Authority reports fiscal 2027 tonnage above fiscal 2026's 521 million PC/UMS tons when it publishes annual results in October 2027. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 114 · 22 Oct 26 | 15 Nov 27 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 447 | Jordan and Israel announce a formal bilateral counter-narcotics or border-drone coordination mechanism by 2027-10-31. | Transnational Organized CrimeAfrica / Middle EastJordanIsrael | No. 111 · 19 Oct 26 | 31 Oct 27 | Unlikely 20% | Open |
| 446 | The U.S. imposes the Graham Act 100% secondary tariff on at least one country's goods by 2027-10-17. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityEuropeRussiaUnited States | No. 109 · 17 Oct 26 | 17 Oct 27 | Unlikely 20% | Open |
| 445 | At least one more Latin American country announces it will open or move an embassy to Jerusalem by 2027-10-16. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombiaIsrael | No. 108 · 16 Oct 26 | 16 Oct 27 | Unlikely 20% | Open |
| 444 | A Spanish court convicts at least one police officer in the Algeciras cocaine network case by October 9, 2027. | Transnational Organized CrimeEuropeSpainEcuador | No. 101 · 9 Oct 26 | 9 Oct 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 443 | The EU formally adopts (Council-level agreement, not just a Commission proposal) a bloc-wide emergency asylum-suspension mechanism within 12 months of the October 1, 2026 interior-ministers summit (by October 1, 2027). | Illegal ImmigrationEuropePoland | No. 87 · 25 Sep 26 | 1 Oct 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 442 | Independent satellite-imagery analysis published by 2027-09-30 shows a paved, complete runway on Antelope Reef in the Paracel Islands. | National SecurityAsia / PacificChina | No. 118 · 26 Oct 26 | 30 Sep 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 441 | The Council of the EU adopts a legal act establishing a sanctions regime targeting migrant smugglers (asset freezes and travel bans) by 2027-09-30. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEuropean Union | No. 92 · 30 Sep 26 | 30 Sep 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 440 | Vietnamese customs does not publicly report a large-scale interdiction of transiting counterfeit or IP-infringing goods under its revised customs law's new transit powers within six months of the law's March 2027 effective date (by September 30, 2027). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAsia / PacificVietnam | No. 55 · 24 Aug 26 | 30 Sep 27 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 439 | At least one EU member state signs a formal agreement with Rwanda, Uganda or Uzbekistan to receive its rejected asylum seekers by 2027-09-29. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeRwandaGermanyGreece | No. 91 · 29 Sep 26 | 29 Sep 27 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 438 | US Southern Command conducts at least one more joint ground raid with Ecuadorian forces involving US military personnel on the ground within 12 months of September 2026's operations (by September 28, 2027). | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanEcuadorUnited States | No. 90 · 28 Sep 26 | 28 Sep 27 | Likely 72% | Open |
| 437 | Haiti's gang coalitions still hold effective territorial control over the areas driving today's 1.5 million displacement figure, without a restored state or multinational security-force presence there, twelve months from now (by September 26, 2027). | Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanHaiti | No. 88 · 26 Sep 26 | 26 Sep 27 | Likely 75% | Open |
| 436 | The United States announces a new or expanded formal security-assistance package with Ecuador -- new funding, equipment, or personnel explicitly tied to counter-narcotics cooperation -- within 12 months of President Noboa's September 21, 2026 public appeal (by September 21, 2027). | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanEcuadorUnited States | No. 84 · 22 Sep 26 | 21 Sep 27 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 435 | Eritrea does not deploy military forces in direct support of Ethiopia's federal government against the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival within 12 months of the war's September 2026 reignition (by September 20, 2027). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastEritreaEthiopia | No. 89 · 27 Sep 26 | 20 Sep 27 | Likely 72%65% → 72% 28 Sep 26 | Open |
| 434 | The Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival removes Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's government from power within 12 months of its September 20, 2026 formation (by September 20, 2027). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastEthiopia | No. 83 · 21 Sep 26 | 20 Sep 27 | Unlikely 40%12% → 30% → 35% → 40% 27 Sep 26 | Open |
| 433 | The Houthi movement still controls the Bab el-Mandeb Red Sea gateway/islands it seized in September 2026, without having been militarily dislodged by a Saudi-coalition or other external campaign, twelve months on (by September 19, 2027). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia | No. 81 · 19 Sep 26 | 19 Sep 27 | Likely 75%68% → 75% 26 Sep 26 | Open |
| 432 | Canada has not formally signed an EU 'associate member' agreement within 12 months of the September 17, 2026 proposal (by September 17, 2027). | PartnershipsNorth AmericaCanadaEuropean Union | No. 79 · 17 Sep 26 | 17 Sep 27 | Likely 75% | Open |
| 431 | Poland's national prosecutors' rate of new top-tier Russia-linked espionage case openings over the 12 months following September 16, 2026 does not fall to half or below the roughly 2/month pace recorded over the prior 20 months (by September 16, 2027). | National SecurityEuropePolandRussia | No. 78 · 16 Sep 26 | 16 Sep 27 | Likely 72% | Open |
| 430 | Panama Canal average daily transit levels remain below 34 transits per day — its pre-2023-drought long-run norm — as of September 15, 2027. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 77 · 15 Sep 26 | 15 Sep 27 | Likely 75%55% → 75% 19 Sep 26 | Open |
| 429 | Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline sustains at least one more attack-driven disruption or shutdown within 12 months of the September 11, 2026 strike (by September 13, 2027), even after this week's damage is repaired. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaIraqIran | No. 75 · 13 Sep 26 | 13 Sep 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 428 | Within 12 months of Switzerland's and the EU's September 2026 Sudanese-gold bans (by September 12, 2027), a credible investigation (a UN Panel of Experts report, an NGO trade-flow analysis, or a wire-service investigation) documents Sudanese-origin gold continuing to reach international markets via a third-country transshipment route, rather than showing a material, sustained drop in Sudanese gold reaching world markets. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSudanSwitzerland | No. 74 · 12 Sep 26 | 12 Sep 27 | Likely 72% | Open |
| 427 | Thailand completes construction of at least one new border-fence segment, in an area along the Malaysia border that Malaysia has not yet fenced, within 12 months of the September 7-8, 2026 coordination talks (by September 8, 2027). | PartnershipsAsia / PacificMalaysiaThailand | No. 70 · 8 Sep 26 | 8 Sep 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 426 | Moldova's new Working Arrangement with the European Union Drugs Agency produces at least one publicly cited joint interdiction or trafficking-route disruption using EUDA-shared intelligence within 12 months of the September 3, 2026 signing. | PartnershipsEuropeMoldova | No. 66 · 4 Sep 26 | 3 Sep 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 425 | China's coast guard maintains a patrol tempo east of Taiwan at or above the level observed in the week of September 3, 2026 (multiple-vessel, weekly-or-more law-enforcement patrols) through the following twelve months, rather than reverting to the sporadic pre-August 2026 baseline, even after the Japan-Philippines maritime-delimitation talks conclude (by September 3, 2027). | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaTaiwan | No. 65 · 3 Sep 26 | 3 Sep 27 | Very likely 80%72% → 80% 7 Sep 26 | Open |
| 424 | Within 12 months of September 2, 2026, credible reporting (UN, civil-society, or national law-enforcement) does not show a net reduction in the total number of foreign nationals held in Southeast Asian cyberscam compounds across Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, and Malaysia combined, by September 2, 2027. | Transnational Organized CrimeAsia / PacificCambodiaMyanmarLaosMalaysia | No. 64 · 2 Sep 26 | 2 Sep 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 423 | Visible construction work begins on the Bedel checkpoint road bridge agreed today between Kyrgyzstan and China within 12 months (by August 31, 2027). | PartnershipsAsia / PacificKyrgyzstanChina | No. 62 · 31 Aug 26 | 31 Aug 27 | Unlikely 35% | Open |
| 422 | China's Type 076 Sichuan is formally commissioned into PLA Navy service within 12 months (by August 29, 2027). | National SecurityAsia / PacificChina | No. 60 · 29 Aug 26 | 29 Aug 27 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 421 | Canada and the EU sign a comprehensive new economic and security partnership beyond the existing SAFE defense-procurement arrangement within 12 months of Carney's August 26 pledge to begin "intense discussions" (by August 27, 2027). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaCanada | No. 58 · 27 Aug 26 | 27 Aug 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 420 | The UN Security Council does not adopt the U.S.-proposed country-wide Sudan arms embargo within 12 months of the August 24, 2026 proposal (by August 24, 2027). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSudan | No. 56 · 25 Aug 26 | 24 Aug 27 | Likely 68% | Open |
| 419 | One year from now, Iran will still not have granted full, publicly announced Strait of Hormuz transit access to Gulf-basing states (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Qatar) on the same terms it has extended to Iraq, even if it continues or expands selective access for non-basing neighbors. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranIraqSaudi ArabiaUnited Arab Emirates | No. 54 · 23 Aug 26 | 23 Aug 27 | Likely 70%62% → 70% 7 Sep 26 | Open |
| 418 | China will visibly advance construction (new reclamation, structures, or facilities) at a South China Sea reef or feature beyond Antelope Reef, within 12 months of August 19, 2026. | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaTaiwan | No. 51 · 20 Aug 26 | 19 Aug 27 | Likely 72% | Open |
| 417 | Satellite imagery shows visible runway-grading work at Antelope Reef within 12 months of August 19, 2026. | National SecurityAsia / PacificChina | No. 50 · 19 Aug 26 | 19 Aug 27 | Very likely 85%55% → 85% 21 Aug 26 | Open |
| 416 | The Libya-to-Crete corridor will still be Greece's single largest migrant-arrival route, ahead of the Turkey-Aegean crossing, in August 2027. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeGreeceLibya | No. 48 · 17 Aug 26 | 17 Aug 27 | Likely 66%60% → 66% 22 Aug 26 | Open |
| 415 | Venezuela's interim government and opposition do not reach a comprehensive agreement on an electoral timeline within 12 months of the August 13, 2026 talks. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanVenezuela | No. 45 · 14 Aug 26 | 13 Aug 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 414 | Syria's transitional government signs or announces at least one formal security- or border-cooperation arrangement with a Western or Gulf government within 12 months of today's Tartous weapons interdiction (by August 10, 2027). | PartnershipsAfrica / Middle EastSyriaLebanon | No. 41 · 10 Aug 26 | 10 Aug 27 | Likely 70% | Open |
| 413 | Egypt does not formally accede to the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement within 12 months of its August 7, 2026 signing (by August 7, 2027). | PartnershipsAfrica / Middle EastEgyptTurkeySaudi ArabiaPakistan | No. 40 · 9 Aug 26 | 7 Aug 27 | Likely 60%68% → 60% 18 Oct 26 | Open |
| 412 | Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan conduct a joint or trilateral military exercise operationalizing their August 7 mutual-defense pact within 12 months, by August 7, 2027. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaTurkeyPakistan | No. 39 · 8 Aug 26 | 7 Aug 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 411 | At least one additional EU or NATO member state's court orders a detained Russian shadow-fleet vessel transferred to Ukrainian custody within 12 months of August 7, 2026, following Sweden's Caffa precedent. | National SecurityEuropeSwedenUkraineRussia | No. 38 · 7 Aug 26 | 7 Aug 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 410 | A cartel-linked threat to a U.S. agricultural or customs inspector in Mexico triggers at least one more partial suspension of a U.S. inspection program there within 12 months of August 6, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 37 · 6 Aug 26 | 6 Aug 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 409 | The US-Venezuela deportation-flight arrangement is paused for 30 or more consecutive days at some point in the next 12 months. | Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanVenezuelaUnited States | No. 36 · 5 Aug 26 | 5 Aug 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 408 | Chinese authorities announce the execution of Wei Huairen by 2027-07-31. | Transnational Organized CrimeAsia / PacificChinaMyanmar | No. 105 · 13 Oct 26 | 31 Jul 27 | Likely 70% | Open |
| 407 | Satellite imagery or Chinese state media shows a fixed-wing aircraft landing on the Antelope Reef runway in the Paracels by 2027-07-31. | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaVietnam | No. 94 · 2 Oct 26 | 31 Jul 27 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 406 | Japan's National Intelligence Bureau announces or stands up an overseas liaison or foreign-collection capability within 12 months of its July 31 launch. | National SecurityAsia / PacificJapan | No. 32 · 1 Aug 26 | 31 Jul 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 405 | UNODC's next annual estimate (due around mid-2027, covering 2026) will show Southeast Asian scam-network losses at or above this year's $88.3-114.1 billion range, i.e. no meaningful year-over-year decline despite the new Cambodia-U.S. coordination push. | Transnational Organized CrimeAsia / PacificCambodiaMyanmar | No. 24 · 24 Jul 26 | 31 Jul 27 | Likely 72% | Open |
| 404 | Colombia's next UNODC coca-cultivation estimate (expected in 2027, covering the 2026 growing season) will not show a meaningful year-over-year decline despite President-elect de la Espriella's aerial-eradication push. | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 9 · 9 Jul 26 | 31 Jul 27 | Likely 70% | Open |
| 403 | Within 12 months of July 30, 2026, Nigerian authorities report dismantling at least one more clandestine methamphetamine lab involving Latin American nationals. | Transnational Organized CrimeAfrica / Middle EastNigeriaMexico | No. 30 · 30 Jul 26 | 30 Jul 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 402 | Within 12 months of the June-July 2026 patrol intensification, China's coast guard will escalate beyond radio warnings and information requests to at least one actual boarding attempt, cargo inspection, or forced diversion of a foreign-flagged commercial vessel transiting near Taiwan. | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaTaiwan | No. 29 · 29 Jul 26 | 29 Jul 27 | Unlikely 40% | Open |
| 401 | Peru's Fujimori government formally reopens any part of the Chancay port concession terms within 12 months of her inauguration. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanPeruChinaUnited States | No. 28 · 28 Jul 26 | 28 Jul 27 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 400 | Timor-Leste's ASEANAPOL membership will produce at least one publicly announced joint operation, extradition, or fugitive transfer involving Timor-Leste within 12 months. | PartnershipsAsia / PacificTimor-Leste | No. 26 · 26 Jul 26 | 26 Jul 27 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 399 | West Africa's combined cocaine trans-shipment volumes (Liberia, Guinea-Bissau, and neighboring littoral states) over the twelve months following today's record Liberian seizure will exceed 2026's already record-setting hauls. | Transnational Organized CrimeAfrica / Middle EastLiberia | No. 23 · 23 Jul 26 | 23 Jul 27 | Likely 72%68% → 72% 26 Jul 26 | Open |
| 398 | Within 12 months of publication, at least one Latin American government beyond Argentina, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Colombia formally joins the U.S.-led 'Shield of the Americas' anti-cartel alliance. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombiaArgentinaEcuadorEl Salvador | No. 22 · 22 Jul 26 | 22 Jul 27 | Likely 70%55% → 70% 1 Aug 26 | Open |
| 397 | China secures a new or expanded port-operator concession near the Panama Canal itself within 12 months of the July 2026 maritime-transport agreement renewal. | National SecurityCentral AmericaPanamaChina | No. 21 · 21 Jul 26 | 21 Jul 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 396 | At least one of the five OECS nations named in the EU's citizenship-by-investment ultimatum (Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia) will publicly commit to concrete CBI phase-out legislation within 12 months. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanAntigua and BarbudaDominicaGrenadaSt. Kitts and NevisSt. LuciaEuropean Union | No. 19 · 19 Jul 26 | 19 Jul 27 | Roughly even 52% | Open |
| 395 | At least one of Taiwan's three remaining Pacific diplomatic allies (Palau, Tuvalu, the Marshall Islands) will face a formal, publicly reported Chinese push to switch recognition within 12 months of publication. | National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChinaPalau | No. 17 · 17 Jul 26 | 17 Jul 27 | Likely 58% | Open |
| 394 | Mexico's criminal complaints over the 17 ICE-related deaths of Mexican nationals will not result in a U.S. grand jury indictment of any ICE or CBP officer within twelve months. | PartnershipsNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 15 · 15 Jul 26 | 15 Jul 27 | Very likely 87% | Open |
| 393 | The Rapid Support Forces will still control El Geneina, the West Darfur town at the center of the 2023 massacre underlying Hemedti's death sentence, twelve months from now, with Sudan's army unable to retake it. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSudan | No. 13 · 13 Jul 26 | 13 Jul 27 | Likely 78% | Open |
| 392 | CJNG's newly designated leader, Juan Carlos Valencia González ('El 03'), will not be captured, arrested, or confirmed killed within 12 months of this designation. | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 11 · 11 Jul 26 | 11 Jul 27 | Likely 78% | Open |
| 391 | China will still be conducting its established coast-guard patrol presence east of Taiwan twelve months from now, without having formally suspended or withdrawn the pattern. | National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina | No. 8 · 8 Jul 26 | 8 Jul 27 | Very likely 85% | Open |
| 390 | The UK and EU sign a legally binding youth experience or youth mobility agreement by 2027-06-30. | PartnershipsEuropeUnited KingdomEuropean Union | No. 117 · 25 Oct 26 | 30 Jun 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 389 | WHO declares the DR Congo Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak over by 30 June 2027. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastDR CongoUganda | No. 116 · 24 Oct 26 | 30 Jun 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 388 | Both chambers of Colombia's Congress give final approval to the counterterrorism statute by June 30, 2027. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 100 · 8 Oct 26 | 30 Jun 27 | Unlikely 35% | Open |
| 387 | By June 30, 2027, the Philippine Bureau of Customs announces another seizure of 50 kg or more of methamphetamine shipped from Mexico. | Transnational Organized CrimeAsia / PacificPhilippinesMexico | No. 97 · 5 Oct 26 | 30 Jun 27 | Unlikely 25% | Open |
| 386 | By June 30, 2027, the European Commission announces further border drone or counter-drone funding beyond the EUR 130 million top-up announced October 3, 2026. | PartnershipsEuropeEuropean Union | No. 96 · 4 Oct 26 | 30 Jun 27 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 385 | The RSF's siege of El-Fasher, North Darfur, will not be lifted by June 30, 2027, despite the Sudanese army's July 26 breakthrough at El Obeid. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudanChad | No. 27 · 27 Jul 26 | 30 Jun 27 | Likely 62% | Open |
| 384 | Peru's Shield of the Americas membership, announced September 10, 2026, does not result in a publicly confirmed joint interdiction operation involving Peruvian forces within nine months (by June 11, 2027). | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanPeru | No. 73 · 11 Sep 26 | 11 Jun 27 | Likely 62% | Open |
| 383 | Within nine months of the September 9 Xinbi Guarantee sanctions, a blockchain-analytics tracker (Chainalysis, TRM Labs, or Elliptic) reports a successor guarantee platform has absorbed the bulk of Xinbi's displaced transaction volume, rather than showing a net contraction in Southeast Asia's scam-related crypto flows. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAsia / PacificCambodiaChinaSingapore | No. 72 · 10 Sep 26 | 9 Jun 27 | Likely 68% | Open |
| 382 | The Panama Canal Authority will not have restored the Neopanamax lock draft limit above today's held 14.63-meter (48-foot) ceiling within nine months of this postponement (by June 9, 2027). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 71 · 9 Sep 26 | 9 Jun 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 381 | Saudi Arabia reports an officially confirmed, meaningful disruption (a shutdown, declared force majeure, or confirmed production/export cut) to Yanbu refining or export operations attributable to Houthi strikes within nine months of the August 25 attack (by May 25, 2027). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 57 · 26 Aug 26 | 25 May 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 380 | Guatemala's Public Ministry announces a charge or arrest of a suspected intellectual author of the Solórzano Foppa killing by 2027-04-30. | PartnershipsCentral AmericaGuatemala | No. 110 · 18 Oct 26 | 30 Apr 27 | Unlikely 25% | Open |
| 379 | Saudi Arabia and the Houthis announce a ceasefire or truce, confirmed by the UN special envoy for Yemen, by 2027-04-30. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 104 · 12 Oct 26 | 30 Apr 27 | Unlikely 35% | Open |
| 378 | Costa Rica's government reports its new high-containment prison holding at least 2,550 inmates (half its 5,100 capacity) by 2027-04-15. | Transnational Organized CrimeCentral AmericaCosta Rica | No. 107 · 15 Oct 26 | 15 Apr 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 377 | Imai Yuki leaves Russian custody, whether by release, swap or deportation, by 2027-04-14. | National SecurityAsia / PacificJapanRussia | No. 106 · 14 Oct 26 | 14 Apr 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 376 | The European Commission formally publishes a legislative proposal that adds security-based restrictions on Schengen visas for Russian nationals by 2027-04-11. | National SecurityEuropeRussiaEuropean Union | No. 103 · 11 Oct 26 | 11 Apr 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 375 | Cyprus’s parliament passes a law or constitutional amendment authorising telephone interception for serious crime by 2027-04-11. | PartnershipsEuropeCyprus | No. 103 · 11 Oct 26 | 11 Apr 27 | Unlikely 20% | Open |
| 374 | ICAO or EASA publicly issues a new or amended flight-crew background-vetting requirement or bulletin that cites the flydubai incident by 2027-04-10. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastUnited Arab EmiratesOmanIsrael | No. 102 · 10 Oct 26 | 10 Apr 27 | Unlikely 20% | Open |
| 373 | Reuters, AP or AFP report a direct armed clash between Ethiopian and Eritrean state forces by April 6, 2027. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastEthiopiaEritrea | No. 98 · 6 Oct 26 | 6 Apr 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 372 | By April 3, 2027, the Taiwan Coast Guard uses a water cannon on a China Coast Guard vessel (not a fishing boat). | National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina | No. 95 · 3 Oct 26 | 3 Apr 27 | Unlikely 20% | Open |
| 371 | The UK and France announce a successor returns-exchange arrangement, bilateral or UK-EU, by 2027-04-02. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeUnited KingdomFrance | No. 94 · 2 Oct 26 | 2 Apr 27 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 370 | The EU's ETIAS travel-authorization system will not launch, even in a limited or phased form, before April 1, 2027 — a further slip beyond the newly announced first-quarter-2027 target. | PartnershipsEuropeEuropean Union | No. 8 · 8 Jul 26 | 1 Apr 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 369 | At least one EU member state formally notifies the European Commission of a crisis or force majeure situation under the Migration Pact's crisis regulation by 2027-03-31. | PartnershipsEuropeEuropean Union | No. 111 · 19 Oct 26 | 31 Mar 27 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 368 | Average daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz recover to at least half the pre-war level in any 30-day window ending by 2027-03-31, per IMF PortWatch. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited Arab EmiratesOman | No. 93 · 1 Oct 26 | 31 Mar 27 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 367 | Within six months, IOM or UNHCR documents Sudanese refugees who transited Chad moving onward toward Libya or Atlantic-coast departure points (by March 27, 2027). | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudanChad | No. 89 · 27 Sep 26 | 27 Mar 27 | Likely 58% | Open |
| 366 | Colombia's government extradites at least one more senior TCO or armed-group figure to the US within six months of this week's extradition of Comandos de la Frontera commander Geovany Andrés Rojas Rodríguez, alias "the Spider" (by March 26, 2027). | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombiaUnited States | No. 89 · 27 Sep 26 | 26 Mar 27 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 365 | At least one other Latin American government formally designates the IRGC a terrorist organization within 6 months of Colombia's September 2026 break with Iran (by March 25, 2027). | National SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanColombiaIran | No. 87 · 25 Sep 26 | 25 Mar 27 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 364 | Within 6 months of al-Sharaa's September 23 UN pledge to wage "open war" on cross-border criminal networks, Syrian authorities publicly report at least one seizure or arrest specifically tied to drug or human trafficking networks named in that pledge. | PartnershipsAfrica / Middle EastSyria | No. 86 · 24 Sep 26 | 23 Mar 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 363 | Spain and Morocco formalize a new joint enforcement mechanism at Ceuta and Melilla -- a joint patrol agreement, a surveillance-investment commitment, or a formal information-sharing MOU -- within six months of Morocco's September 23, 2026 election (by March 23, 2027). | PartnershipsEuropeSpainMorocco | No. 85 · 23 Sep 26 | 23 Mar 27 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 362 | Mexico's federal government and Chihuahua's state government publicly clash again over the deployment or role of U.S. security personnel in the state within six months of today's September 19 reconciliation (by March 20, 2027). | PartnershipsNorth AmericaMexico | No. 82 · 20 Sep 26 | 20 Mar 27 | Very likely 80%50% → 80% 18 Oct 26 | Open |
| 361 | Houthi forces still hold both shores of Bab el-Mandeb (Perim, the Hanish islands, Mocha, and Dhubab) as of March 18, 2027. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia | No. 80 · 18 Sep 26 | 18 Mar 27 | Very likely 88%82% → 88% 26 Sep 26 | Open |
| 360 | Japan's government formally resumes Henoko landfill/construction work within six months of Genta Koja's September 14, 2026 Okinawa gubernatorial win (by March 14, 2027). | PartnershipsAsia / PacificJapan | No. 76 · 14 Sep 26 | 14 Mar 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 359 | No independent, on-the-ground verification (by the OPCW, a UN body, or another impartial international investigator) of Sudan's alleged chemical-weapons program occurs within six months of this week's dossier disclosure (by March 5, 2027). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSudan | No. 69 · 7 Sep 26 | 5 Mar 27 | Very likely 80% | Open |
| 358 | Polish authorities do not publicly and formally attribute the WB Electronics arson to a specific foreign state within 6 months, by March 1, 2027. | National SecurityEuropePoland | No. 63 · 1 Sep 26 | 1 Mar 27 | Likely 70% | Open |
| 357 | China's full-year 2026 customs data show trade with North Korea above $3.0 billion. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAsia / PacificChinaNorth Korea | No. 112 · 20 Oct 26 | 28 Feb 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 356 | Sudan's Khartoum State foreign-national entry restriction, imposed alongside the August 27 curfew lift, remains in force unrelaxed to pre-emergency visa norms six months out. | PartnershipsAfrica / Middle EastSudan | No. 59 · 28 Aug 26 | 27 Feb 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 355 | The UAE's suspension of trade and financial dealings with Iran (announced August 19, 2026) remains in place through February 19, 2027. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastUnited Arab EmiratesIran | No. 52 · 21 Aug 26 | 19 Feb 27 | Likely 70% | Open |
| 354 | China formally lifts suspensions on all 14 Ecuadorian shrimp processors within six months of President Noboa's August 2026 Beijing visit (by February 16, 2027). | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanEcuadorChina | No. 49 · 18 Aug 26 | 16 Feb 27 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 353 | Japan's Coast Guard or Foreign Ministry reports at least 20 unauthorized Chinese survey cases in Japan's exclusive economic zone for calendar 2026, published by February 15, 2027. | National SecurityAsia / PacificJapanChina | No. 98 · 6 Oct 26 | 15 Feb 27 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 352 | The Baghdad-Erbil border-security and customs coordination reviewed on August 15 is not operationalized -- no functioning joint checkpoint, published revenue-sharing mechanism, or joint interdiction operation -- within 6 months (by February 15, 2027). | PartnershipsAfrica / Middle EastIraq | No. 47 · 16 Aug 26 | 15 Feb 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 351 | A confirmed, on-the-ground US-Colombia joint operational activity under the Shield of the Americas coalition -- an actual joint patrol, exercise, or staffed liaison presence, not a further policy announcement -- will be independently reported within six months of the August 12, 2026 membership announcement. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombiaUnited States | No. 44 · 13 Aug 26 | 12 Feb 27 | Likely 55%45% → 55% 14 Aug 26 | Open |
| 350 | Rapid Support Forces and allied SPLM-N fighters will hold Geissan on a sustained basis and capture at least one more Blue Nile state town within six months of the August 11 offensive (by February 12, 2027). | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudanEthiopia | No. 43 · 12 Aug 26 | 12 Feb 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 349 | Chad will register at least 10,000 additional Sudanese refugee arrivals in the Ouaddai and Sila regions combined over the six months following the August 9 West Darfur displacement wave (by February 11, 2027). | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudanChad | No. 42 · 11 Aug 26 | 11 Feb 27 | Likely 68% | Open |
| 348 | The EU does not formally expand Operation Irini's mandate to allow seizing (rather than only inspecting) sanctioned shadow-fleet tankers within six months of the August 2 Toa Payoh boarding. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityEuropeItalyRussiaEuropean Union | No. 34 · 3 Aug 26 | 3 Feb 27 | Very likely 80% | Open |
| 347 | The DR Congo's Ebola outbreak still carries WHO's Public Health Emergency of International Concern designation past February 2, 2027, rather than being declared over. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastDemocratic Republic of the Congo | No. 35 · 4 Aug 26 | 2 Feb 27 | Likely 70% | Open |
| 346 | The EU will not adopt a formal, Council-level revision to the Schengen external-border suspension mechanism within six months of the Ceuta crisis, by February 2, 2027. | PartnershipsEuropeEuropean UnionSpain | No. 33 · 2 Aug 26 | 2 Feb 27 | Likely 78%75% → 78% 3 Aug 26 | Open |
| 345 | Mexico files treason or an equivalent sovereignty charge against a second current or former official over U.S. involvement in operations by 31 January 2027. | PartnershipsNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 114 · 22 Oct 26 | 31 Jan 27 | Very unlikely 15% | Open |
| 344 | France, Italy or Spain publicly announces it will stop issuing tourist visas to Russians by 2027-01-31. | PartnershipsEuropeFranceItalySpainRussia | No. 111 · 19 Oct 26 | 31 Jan 27 | Very unlikely 12% | Open |
| 343 | By January 31, 2027, India's Border Security Force Punjab Frontier reports 2026 heroin recoveries above 1,000 kg. | Transnational Organized CrimeAsia / PacificIndia | No. 96 · 4 Oct 26 | 31 Jan 27 | Likely 72% | Open |
| 342 | The Panama Canal Authority reduces the maximum Neopanamax draft below 14.94 m (49 ft) at any point before 2027-01-31. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 91 · 29 Sep 26 | 31 Jan 27 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 341 | The 14-nation Red Sea maritime coalition announced July 30 has not conducted a publicly reported joint patrol or interdiction within six months of its announcement (by January 30, 2027). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 31 · 31 Jul 26 | 30 Jan 27 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 340 | No execution is carried out under Myanmar's new anti-scam law within six months of its July 28 enactment. | PartnershipsAsia / PacificMyanmar | No. 28 · 28 Jul 26 | 28 Jan 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 339 | China's export-control retaliation list against EU dual-use entities grows beyond today's 14 names within six months of July 25, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAsia / PacificChinaEuropean Union | No. 25 · 25 Jul 26 | 25 Jan 27 | Likely 70% | Open |
| 338 | Alejandro Arias Monge ('El Diablo') is extradited to the United States within six months of his July 25, 2026 capture. | Transnational Organized CrimeCentral AmericaCosta RicaUnited States | No. 25 · 25 Jul 26 | 25 Jan 27 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 337 | China's coast-guard presence around Taiwan will average above 50 government-vessel sightings per month over the next six months, i.e. the current elevated tempo becomes a sustained new baseline rather than a temporary spike. | National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina | No. 20 · 20 Jul 26 | 20 Jan 27 | Very likely 85%70% → 85% 28 Aug 26 | Open |
| 336 | EU-wide asylum applications (EUAA data) come in lower year-on-year for the fourth quarter of 2026, extending the decline already visible in the Netherlands since the bloc's Migration and Asylum Pact took effect in June 2026. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEuropean UnionNetherlands | No. 81 · 19 Sep 26 | 15 Jan 27 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 335 | Verifiable Sudanese-origin gold volumes moving through UAE import/re-export channels will show no meaningful decline within six months of the EU's July 13 Sudanese conflict-gold import ban. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSudanUnited Arab EmiratesEuropean Union | No. 14 · 14 Jul 26 | 14 Jan 27 | Likely 70% | Open |
| 334 | A formal ceasefire or cessation of hostilities between Iran and the U.S./Gulf states will be in place by 12 January 2027. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 12 · 12 Jul 26 | 12 Jan 27 | Unlikely 35%55% → 50% → 40% → 30% → 35% 26 Sep 26 | Open |
| 333 | The UK National Crime Agency or Home Office announces a second seizure of Channel-crossing boats moved by air freight by January 9, 2027. | Transnational Organized CrimeEuropeUnited Kingdom | No. 101 · 9 Oct 26 | 9 Jan 27 | Unlikely 25% | Open |
| 332 | If el-Obeid's last open route closes, a UN-confirmed displacement count of at least 100,000 people tied to the el-Obeid offensive will be recorded within six months. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudanChadEgypt | No. 7 · 7 Jul 26 | 7 Jan 27 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 331 | China maintains a recurring, rotating coast-guard patrol presence east of Taiwan (a replacement vessel on station within any 30-day gap) through early January 2027. | National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina | No. 5 · 5 Jul 26 | 5 Jan 27 | Very likely 85% | Open |
| 330 | Iran does not file a formal notice of withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before January 1, 2027, despite Mohsen Rezaei's August 24 public questioning of the NPT's value. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 55 · 24 Aug 26 | 1 Jan 27 | Very likely 87%us 87% · Polymarket 10% → 9% | Open |
| 329 | Estonian authorities report at least 500 Belarus-route detentions since July, cumulative, by 2026-12-31. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEstoniaBelarus | No. 121 · 29 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 328 | Malaysia's Customs Department publicly announces a sixth seizure linked to the same AI-chip smuggling syndicate by 2026-12-31. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAsia / PacificMalaysia | No. 120 · 28 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 327 | Serbia's National Assembly elects a prime minister by 2026-12-31. | PartnershipsEuropeSerbia | No. 119 · 27 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 326 | Venezuela's government or electoral authority publicly announces a date for a presidential election by 2026-12-31. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanVenezuela | No. 118 · 26 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Unlikely 20% | Open |
| 325 | Haiti's electoral council or transitional authorities announce a new date for the postponed national elections by 31 December 2026. | Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanHaiti | No. 112 · 20 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Unlikely 25% | Open |
| 324 | China's coast guard boards or inspects a Taiwanese-flagged vessel near the Pratas Islands by 2026-12-31. | National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina | No. 111 · 19 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Unlikely 25% | Open |
| 323 | Mexico's federal prosecutors or a Mexican court charge or detain at least one additional current or former Chihuahua state official over the April drug-lab raid by 2026-12-31. | PartnershipsNorth AmericaMexico | No. 110 · 18 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 322 | The European Commission formally tables the emergency response framework (a published legislative proposal permitting border closures or temporary asylum suspension) by 2026-12-31. | National SecurityEuropeEuropean Union | No. 109 · 17 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 321 | French authorities release the tanker DF Peak from detention by 2026-12-31 rather than confiscating it. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastFranceRussia | No. 105 · 13 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Likely 62% | Open |
| 320 | At least one European country arrests or charges a suspect in a Russia-linked assassination or sabotage plot targeting a defense-industry firm or executive by 2026-12-31. | National SecurityEuropeRussia | No. 104 · 12 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 319 | UAE authorities publicly announce formal charges or a trial referral against the flydubai co-pilot by 2026-12-31. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastUnited Arab EmiratesOmanIsrael | No. 102 · 10 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 318 | Estonia's cumulative count of illegal migrants apprehended since summer exceeds 300 by December 31, 2026. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEstonia | No. 101 · 9 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Unlikely 33% | Open |
| 317 | By December 31, 2026, Panama's attorney general files formal criminal charges against former port regulators or CK Hutchison executives over the canal-port concession. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanamaChina | No. 95 · 3 Oct 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Unlikely 25% | Open |
| 316 | The US and China preserve their 'Busan Agreement' tariff-and-critical-minerals truce -- via a further extension or a broader deal -- rather than letting it lapse into a return to triple-digit tariffs, by December 31, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAsia / PacificChinaUnited States | No. 87 · 25 Sep 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Very likely 88%us 88% · Polymarket 94% | Open |
| 315 | The US and China formally announce or sign an extended tariff/trade agreement by December 31, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAsia / PacificChinaUnited States | No. 60 · 29 Aug 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Very likely 80%us 80% · Polymarket 86% | Open |
| 314 | Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal levels by December 31, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranYemen | No. 6 · 6 Jul 26 | 31 Dec 26 | Unlikely 20%70% → 55% → 45% → 35% → 30% → 35% → 28% → 20% 20 Sep 26us 20% · Polymarket 72% → 12% | Open |
| 313 | Taiwan’s Coast Guard publicly reports at least one further Chinese militia or fishing-militia vessel operating off Taiwan’s Pacific coast by 23 December 2026. | National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina | No. 115 · 23 Oct 26 | 23 Dec 26 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 312 | Another South American government newly lists the Sinaloa Cartel or the ELN as a terrorist organization, with a decree dated after 23 October, by 23 December 2026. | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanArgentinaMexicoColombia | No. 115 · 23 Oct 26 | 23 Dec 26 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 311 | Albania's Special Prosecution Against Corruption and Organized Crime (SPAK) formally indicts SHISH director Vlora Hyseni within 90 days of her September 22, 2026 suspension (by December 21, 2026). | PartnershipsEuropeAlbania | No. 88 · 26 Sep 26 | 21 Dec 26 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 310 | Egypt announces a new deployment of warships, air-defence units or troops to Saudi Arabia or the Red Sea in support of Saudi defence by 2026-12-18. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastEgyptSaudi Arabia | No. 110 · 18 Oct 26 | 18 Dec 26 | Unlikely 40%35% → 40% 19 Oct 26 | Open |
| 309 | Mexican authorities charge or order to trial a second official in the Chihuahua CIA treason case by 2026-12-15. | PartnershipsNorth AmericaMexico | No. 118 · 26 Oct 26 | 15 Dec 26 | Unlikely 25% | Open |
| 308 | The Panama Canal Authority announces daily transit slots of 36 or more by 2026-12-15. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 109 · 17 Oct 26 | 15 Dec 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 307 | Polish authorities announce that Germany has surrendered at least one of the two Turkish suspects in the Wola Krobowska Starlink station arson to Poland by 2026-12-15. | National SecurityEuropePolandGermanyTurkey | No. 105 · 13 Oct 26 | 15 Dec 26 | Likely 68% | Open |
| 306 | The US and Mexico do not reach a final agreement on the proposed AI-hardware rules-of-origin restriction within 90 days of this week's USMCA-review talks (by December 15, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaMexicoUnited StatesChina | No. 78 · 16 Sep 26 | 15 Dec 26 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 305 | Mexico's government publicly identifies at least one man in the Ukraine cartel video by December 8, 2026. | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexicoUkraine | No. 101 · 9 Oct 26 | 8 Dec 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 304 | Fugitive Dutch trafficking kingpin Jos Leijdekkers ('Bolle Jos') is arrested or otherwise located by authorities within 90 days of this week's French cocaine seizure tied to his network (by December 7, 2026). | Transnational Organized CrimeEuropeNetherlandsFranceSierra Leone | No. 70 · 8 Sep 26 | 7 Dec 26 | Very unlikely 12% | Open |
| 303 | Japan or the Philippines lodges a formal diplomatic protest, or scrambles or deploys military or coast-guard assets, specifically in response to China's new coast-guard patrol pattern east of Taiwan, within 90 days of the September 7, 2026 report (by December 6, 2026). | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaTaiwanJapanPhilippines | No. 69 · 7 Sep 26 | 6 Dec 26 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 302 | Peru's Constitutional Court issues a ruling on the pending Ositran regulatory-oversight dispute over the Chancay port within 90 days (by December 5, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanPeruChina | No. 68 · 6 Sep 26 | 5 Dec 26 | Unlikely 35% | Open |
| 301 | The United States opens a renewed large-scale strike campaign against Iran within 30 days of the November 3, 2026 midterm elections (by December 3, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 88 · 26 Sep 26 | 3 Dec 26 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 300 | Frontex's preliminary January–October data show Western Mediterranean crossings at least 20% above the same period of 2025. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEuropean UnionSpainAlgeria | No. 112 · 20 Oct 26 | 30 Nov 26 | Likely 70% | Open |
| 299 | Chinese or North Korean state media, or Yonhap, report regular commercial truck traffic crossing the New Yalu River Bridge by 2026-11-30. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAsia / PacificNorth KoreaChina | No. 107 · 15 Oct 26 | 30 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 298 | Reuters, AP or AFP report Ethiopian ground forces operating inside Eritrean territory by 2026-11-30. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastEthiopiaEritrea | No. 104 · 12 Oct 26 | 30 Nov 26 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 297 | Either the Moroccan or Spanish government publicly confirms that Rabat has formally delivered its proposed new migration-control deal by 2026-11-30. | PartnershipsAfrica / Middle EastMoroccoSpain | No. 102 · 10 Oct 26 | 30 Nov 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 296 | By November 30, 2026, at least two major wire services report Ethiopian and Eritrean state forces directly exchanging fire, rather than through proxies. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastEthiopiaEritrea | No. 96 · 4 Oct 26 | 30 Nov 26 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 295 | By November 30, 2026, the UK government publicly attributes the Manchester Jewish-community bomb plot to direction by the Iranian state (not merely a possible contact in Iran). | National SecurityEuropeUnited KingdomIran | No. 95 · 3 Oct 26 | 30 Nov 26 | Unlikely 25% | Open |
| 294 | Malaysia returns at least 1,000 additional Myanmar nationals to Myanmar in one or more further phases after the Sept 29 first phase, by 2026-11-30. | Illegal ImmigrationAsia / PacificMalaysiaMyanmar | No. 92 · 30 Sep 26 | 30 Nov 26 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 293 | Health authorities or WHO confirm at least one case of Bundibugyo Ebola in South Sudan by 2026-11-30. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSouth SudanDR Congo | No. 91 · 29 Sep 26 | 30 Nov 26 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 292 | Either Uganda or Rwanda is formally confirmed by name as the EU Group of Five's chosen return-hub partner by November 30, 2026. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEuropean UnionUgandaRwanda | No. 68 · 6 Sep 26 | 30 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 291 | Niger's junta suffers at least one further armed mutiny or coup attempt against Gen. Abdourahamane Tiani within 90 days of the August 29, 2026 attack on Niamey's airport and presidential palace (by November 28, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastNiger | No. 61 · 30 Aug 26 | 28 Nov 26 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 290 | A country not yet on the outbreak list (beyond DR Congo, Uganda, Kenya, Nigeria and France) reports a locally detected confirmed Bundibugyo case, not a medical evacuation, by 2026-11-26, per WHO or that country's health ministry. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastKenyaNigeriaUgandaDR Congo | Contagia · 29 Oct 26 | 26 Nov 26 | Very unlikely 15% | Open |
| 289 | APHIS announces a second New World screwworm detection in Arizona (a new, separate case outside the Cochise County dog case) by 2026-11-26, as shown on its news page. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaUnited StatesMexico | Contagia · 29 Oct 26 | 26 Nov 26 | Unlikely 35% | Open |
| 288 | The Philippines completes its next scheduled Second Thomas Shoal (Ayungin) resupply mission without a repeat Chinese naval or coast-guard blocking or shadowing maneuver, within 60 days of the September 24, 2026 incident (by November 26, 2026). | National SecurityAsia / PacificPhilippinesChina | No. 89 · 27 Sep 26 | 26 Nov 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 287 | Colombia's navy formally commissions at least one Remas high-security prison ship — moving beyond planning documents to an assigned vessel and mooring site — within 90 days of the August 26 order (by November 24, 2026). | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 58 · 27 Aug 26 | 24 Nov 26 | Unlikely 25% | Open |
| 286 | Brent crude settles above $120 a barrel on at least one trading day by 23 November 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 115 · 23 Oct 26 | 23 Nov 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 285 | A Saudi-announced or Houthi-claimed strike hits a Saudi seaport or oil-export terminal (Yanbu, Jeddah, Ras Tanura or Ju'aymah) by 22 November 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 114 · 22 Oct 26 | 22 Nov 26 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 284 | Colombian security forces capture or kill Fredy Castillo Carrillo, alias 'Pinocho,' leader of the Autodefensas Conquistadoras de la Sierra Nevada, within 60 days of President De La Espriella's September 22, 2026 public vow (by November 21, 2026). | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 85 · 23 Sep 26 | 21 Nov 26 | Likely 58% | Open |
| 283 | Colombia's Congress does not pass enabling legislation to formally designate criminal groups as terrorist organizations within 60 days of President De La Espriella's September 22, 2026 request (by November 21, 2026). | National SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 85 · 23 Sep 26 | 21 Nov 26 | Likely 70% | Open |
| 282 | Syria and Israel do not sign a formal, publicly announced security arrangement within 90 days of the August 23 Jordan-mediated talks (by November 21, 2026), even if informal de-confliction channels develop. | PartnershipsAfrica / Middle EastSyriaIsrael | No. 55 · 24 Aug 26 | 21 Nov 26 | Likely 75% | Open |
| 281 | ECDC's multi-country Ebola page reports at least 11,500 confirmed cases in DR Congo with a data cut-off on or before 2026-11-16, published by 2026-11-20. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastDR Congo | No. 120 · 28 Oct 26 | 20 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 280 | South Sudan formally expels or recalls an ambassador over the October 2026 Abyei drone strike by 20 November 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSudanSouth Sudan | No. 113 · 21 Oct 26 | 20 Nov 26 | Very unlikely 12% | Open |
| 279 | The newly formed seven-group Ethiopian coalition (the Ethiopian Peoples' Forces Coalition for Survival) launches a coordinated multi-front military offensive within 60 days of its September 20, 2026 formation (by November 19, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastEthiopia | No. 83 · 21 Sep 26 | 19 Nov 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 278 | UK authorities charge at least one of the two men re-arrested over the RAF Fairford incident with any criminal offence by 18 November 2026. | National SecurityEuropeUnited KingdomIran | No. 113 · 21 Oct 26 | 18 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 277 | Saudi authorities or Aramco confirm a Houthi missile or drone impact on a Yanbu energy facility by 2026-11-17. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 109 · 17 Oct 26 | 17 Nov 26 | Unlikely 28% | Open |
| 276 | Venezuela's interim government and the UK do not have a formally signed gold-transfer agreement within 60 days of the September 18, 2026 Financial Times report (by November 17, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanVenezuelaUnited Kingdom | No. 80 · 18 Sep 26 | 17 Nov 26 | Unlikely 42%65% → 42% 19 Sep 26 | Open |
| 275 | Jordanian or Syrian official media report that the Nassib (Jaber) crossing has reopened to commercial freight traffic by 2026-11-15. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastJordanSyria | No. 119 · 27 Oct 26 | 15 Nov 26 | Very likely 93%60% → 93% 28 Oct 26 | Open |
| 274 | A Joint Maritime Information Center advisory published by 2026-11-15 reports fewer than 300 vessels waiting outside the Strait of Hormuz. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited Arab EmiratesOman | No. 118 · 26 Oct 26 | 15 Nov 26 | Unlikely 25% | Open |
| 273 | U.S. forces strike targets on Iranian territory, as announced by the White House, CENTCOM or the Pentagon, by 2026-11-15. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 117 · 25 Oct 26 | 15 Nov 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 272 | The U.S. and Mexico announce an agreement lowering tariffs on Mexican autos, steel or aluminum by 2026-11-15. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 108 · 16 Oct 26 | 15 Nov 26 | Unlikely 22% | Open |
| 271 | China's PLA Eastern Theater Command announces a named joint military exercise around Taiwan by 2026-11-15. | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaTaiwan | No. 104 · 12 Oct 26 | 15 Nov 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 270 | By November 15, 2026, Brazil's electoral court declares Lula the winner of the presidential election, in either round. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanBrazil | No. 96 · 4 Oct 26 | 15 Nov 26 | Almost certain 97%52% → 38% → 97% 26 Oct 26 | Open |
| 269 | Between October 3 and November 15, 2026, Saudi-backed Yemeni ground forces begin an offensive toward Bab el-Mandeb, confirmed by a Saudi or coalition statement or by advances reported by at least two major wire services. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 95 · 3 Oct 26 | 15 Nov 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 268 | Between October 2 and November 15, 2026, the Ethiopian or Eritrean government publicly accuses the other of a direct military attack on its territory or forces across their border. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastEthiopiaEritrea | No. 94 · 2 Oct 26 | 15 Nov 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 267 | Saudi crude loadings at Yanbu average at least 4 million barrels per day in a reported week by 2026-11-15. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi Arabia | No. 93 · 1 Oct 26 | 15 Nov 26 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 266 | Cumulative confirmed Ebola (Bundibugyo) cases in DR Congo exceed 10,000 in WHO or DRC health-ministry data published by 2026-11-15. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastDR Congo | No. 92 · 30 Sep 26 | 15 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 265 | Serbia's Interior Ministry announces that the national terror threat level has been lowered from red by 2026-11-14. | National SecurityEuropeSerbia | No. 120 · 28 Oct 26 | 14 Nov 26 | Likely 55% | Open |
| 264 | All four missing Salvadoran Gang Suppression Force soldiers are confirmed released or recovered alive by 14 November 2026. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanHaitiEl Salvador | No. 116 · 24 Oct 26 | 14 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 263 | China's coast guard announces a patrol or boarding inside the restricted waters around Pratas (Dongsha) by 2026-11-14. | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaTaiwan | No. 106 · 14 Oct 26 | 14 Nov 26 | Likely 62%50% → 62% 18 Oct 26 | Open |
| 262 | Mexico’s attorney general’s office (FGR) publicly announces an investigation or arrest warrant naming Carlos Alberto Torres Torres by 2026-11-14. | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 92 · 30 Sep 26 | 14 Nov 26 | Unlikely 20% | Open |
| 261 | ECDC or WHO reports more than 11,000 cumulative confirmed Bundibugyo Ebola cases in DR Congo by 2026-11-12. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastDR CongoUgandaKenyaNigeria | Contagia · 29 Oct 26 | 12 Nov 26 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 260 | UNHCR or Kenyan authorities report cumulative arrivals in Kenya from the Moyale fighting above 70,000 by 2026-11-12. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastEthiopiaKenya | No. 121 · 29 Oct 26 | 12 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 259 | Sweden's Sweden Democrats do not hold a full cabinet ministerial portfolio within 60 days of the September 13, 2026 election (by November 12, 2026), even if the right bloc wins outright. | PartnershipsEuropeSweden | No. 75 · 13 Sep 26 | 12 Nov 26 | Likely 78%72% → 78% 14 Sep 26 | Open |
| 258 | The U.S. military publicly confirms at least one strike on Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen by 2026-11-10. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi ArabiaUnited States | No. 103 · 11 Oct 26 | 10 Nov 26 | Unlikely 35% | Open |
| 257 | At least one EU member state other than Belgium publicly commits a ship to the Aspides Red Sea mission by 2026-11-10. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia | No. 102 · 10 Oct 26 | 10 Nov 26 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 256 | Colombia's government does not obtain court clearance to conduct aerial coca-eradication spraying in any department within 60 days of the September 11, 2026 Puerto Asís suspension (by November 10, 2026). | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 78 · 16 Sep 26 | 10 Nov 26 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 255 | China will not stage another publicly announced joint naval drill with a third country's navy near Taiwan within 90 days of the mid-August exercise with Indonesia (by November 10, 2026). | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaIndonesiaTaiwan | No. 43 · 12 Aug 26 | 10 Nov 26 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 254 | Irish prosecutors will file at least one additional charge against another named Kinahan Organised Crime Group figure within 90 days of Daniel Kinahan's August 9 charge (by November 9, 2026). | Transnational Organized CrimeEuropeIreland | No. 42 · 11 Aug 26 | 9 Nov 26 | Roughly even 52% | Open |
| 253 | The Kenya Red Cross, UNHCR or OCHA reports at least 25,000 people displaced from Ethiopia into Kenya's Moyale area by 2026-11-08. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastEthiopiaKenya | No. 117 · 25 Oct 26 | 8 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 252 | Kenya's health ministry or the WHO confirms a second Bundibugyo Ebola case in Kenya by November 8, 2026. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastKenyaUgandaDemocratic Republic of the Congo | No. 100 · 8 Oct 26 | 8 Nov 26 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 251 | Saudi civil aviation or an airport operator announces a suspension of all commercial flights at any Saudi airport for at least 24 hours following a Houthi attack by November 8, 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 100 · 8 Oct 26 | 8 Nov 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 250 | Germany's government summons Azerbaijan's ambassador or expels an Azerbaijani diplomat over the August Hanning espionage case by November 8, 2026. | National SecurityEuropeGermanyAzerbaijan | No. 100 · 8 Oct 26 | 8 Nov 26 | Very unlikely 15% | Open |
| 249 | The US or Ecuadorian forces conduct a lethal vessel-interdiction strike publicly attributed to Los Tiguerones within 60 days of its September 9 foreign-terrorist-organization designation. | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanEcuador | No. 72 · 10 Sep 26 | 8 Nov 26 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 248 | Jordanian authorities announce at least one arrest or the killing of a suspect in the 23 October Karak church attack by 7 November 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastJordan | No. 116 · 24 Oct 26 | 7 Nov 26 | Almost certain 97%70% → 97% 26 Oct 26 | Open |
| 247 | UKMTO's weekly summary published by 7 November 2026 records at least five confirmed attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUAEOman | No. 116 · 24 Oct 26 | 7 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 246 | Latvia closes at least one road border crossing with Belarus by November 7, 2026. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeLatviaBelarus | No. 99 · 7 Oct 26 | 7 Nov 26 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 245 | Brent crude futures settle above $110 a barrel on at least one trading day by November 7, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranOman | No. 99 · 7 Oct 26 | 7 Nov 26 | Very likely 90%25% → 90% 28 Oct 26 | Open |
| 244 | UK police formally charge at least one of the seven people arrested in the RAF Fairford plot investigation with a terrorism offence by November 7, 2026. | National SecurityEuropeUnited KingdomIran | No. 99 · 7 Oct 26 | 7 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 243 | Kenya reports at least one more laboratory-confirmed Ebola case, a third, by 2026-11-06. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastKenyaDemocratic Republic of the Congo | No. 108 · 16 Oct 26 | 6 Nov 26 | Roughly even 45% | Open |
| 242 | UAE prosecutors announce formal charges against, or a referral to trial of, the flydubai FZ1073 co-pilot by November 6, 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastUAEOman | No. 98 · 6 Oct 26 | 6 Nov 26 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 241 | Mexico's government publicly acknowledges that shots were fired at US Coast Guard personnel from Mexican territory by November 6, 2026. | National SecurityNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 98 · 6 Oct 26 | 6 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 240 | Congress appropriates any portion of the pledged $1 billion Colombia security package within 90 days, by November 6, 2026. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombiaUnited States | No. 39 · 8 Aug 26 | 6 Nov 26 | Roughly even 48% | Open |
| 239 | Scheduled commercial flights resume at Aden airport by 2026-11-05, as reported by Yemeni transport officials or a carrier. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia | No. 121 · 29 Oct 26 | 5 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 238 | At least one of the four Salvadorans missing in Haiti is publicly confirmed released or rescued alive by 5 November 2026. | National SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanHaitiEl Salvador | No. 114 · 22 Oct 26 | 5 Nov 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 237 | UK police charge at least one person in connection with the suspected plot against RAF Fairford by November 5, 2026. | National SecurityEuropeUnited KingdomIran | No. 97 · 5 Oct 26 | 5 Nov 26 | Almost certain 97%45% → 97% 28 Oct 26 | Open |
| 236 | Panama's Maritime Authority lists the Bitu, Starway and Mackerel as cancelled or removed from the Panama registry by 2026-11-04. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 106 · 14 Oct 26 | 4 Nov 26 | Likely 75% | Open |
| 235 | At least one additional country beyond Taiwan formally restricts pork or live-swine imports from South Sudan within 45 days of Taiwan's September 20 ASF listing (by November 4, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSouth Sudan | No. 82 · 20 Sep 26 | 4 Nov 26 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 234 | CANACAR or Mexico's Interior Ministry announces the end or suspension of the CANACAR-led national trucker strike by 2026-11-03. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaMexico | No. 119 · 27 Oct 26 | 3 Nov 26 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 233 | El Salvador's armed forces or the Gang Suppression Force publicly confirm that all four missing Salvadoran soldiers have been located, alive or dead, by 3 November 2026. | National SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanHaitiEl Salvador | No. 112 · 20 Oct 26 | 3 Nov 26 | Likely 70% | Open |
| 232 | The UN Security Council does not adopt sanctions or a binding measure specifically targeting the UAE-Chad-Libya support network named in the September 3 UN fact-finding mission report on Sudan within 60 days. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSudanUnited Arab Emirates | No. 66 · 4 Sep 26 | 3 Nov 26 | Likely 75% | Open |
| 231 | Greece does not announce a concrete joint anti-smuggling or organized-crime operation with Turkey stemming from the Kalin-Demiris intelligence back-channel within 60 days of September 2, 2026 (by November 2, 2026). | PartnershipsEuropeTurkeyGreece | No. 65 · 3 Sep 26 | 2 Nov 26 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 230 | The EU formally imposes new sanctions on Russian individuals or entities specifically tied to the Leipzig airport drone plot within 60 days, by November 1, 2026. | National SecurityEuropeGermanyRussia | No. 64 · 2 Sep 26 | 1 Nov 26 | Likely 60% | Open |
| 229 | Singapore's Maritime and Port Authority reports another Singapore-flagged vessel hit in or near the Strait of Hormuz by 2026-10-31. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSingaporeIran | No. 107 · 15 Oct 26 | 31 Oct 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 228 | U.S. forces strike Houthi targets in Yemen, as announced by the White House or CENTCOM, by 2026-10-31. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenUnited StatesSaudi Arabia | No. 107 · 15 Oct 26 | 31 Oct 26 | Unlikely 30% | Open |
| 227 | The Houthis claim, or Saudi Arabia confirms, an attack on Aramco's Dhahran headquarters or a Riyadh refinery by 2026-10-31. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 106 · 14 Oct 26 | 31 Oct 26 | Almost certain 95%45% → 95% 15 Oct 26 | Open |
| 226 | Riyadh's King Khalid International Airport resumes scheduled commercial passenger flights by 2026-10-31. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 105 · 13 Oct 26 | 31 Oct 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 225 | UK police charge at least one person arrested in the RAF Fairford investigation with a terrorism-related offence by 2026-10-31. | National SecurityEuropeUnited KingdomIran | No. 94 · 2 Oct 26 | 31 Oct 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 224 | Spain's Council of Ministers formally approves a decree tightening asylum rules for the Ceuta mass-crossing arrivals by 2026-10-31. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeSpainMorocco | No. 93 · 1 Oct 26 | 31 Oct 26 | Roughly even 50% | Open |
| 223 | Saudi Arabia's shut East-West pipeline -- its only crude-export route bypassing the Strait of Hormuz -- is back in service by October 31, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi Arabia | No. 79 · 17 Sep 26 | 31 Oct 26 | Very likely 88%85% → 88% 18 Sep 26us 88% · Polymarket 86% | Open |
| 222 | The EU's Group of Five (Germany, Austria, Greece, Denmark, Netherlands) does not publicly name a host country for its migrant return hub before October 31, 2026. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEuropean UnionGermanyDenmarkAustria | No. 67 · 5 Sep 26 | 31 Oct 26 | Likely 75%72% → 62% → 75% 29 Oct 26 | Open |
| 221 | War-risk insurance premiums for Saudi-linked and southern Red Sea voyages (the Jizan/Al Shuqaiq corridor) remain at or above their current elevated levels through October 31, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 55 · 24 Aug 26 | 31 Oct 26 | Likely 72% | Open |
| 220 | The Panama Canal Authority announces a sixth draft restriction beyond the scheduled September 3, 2026 cut within the following ten weeks (by October 31, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 49 · 18 Aug 26 | 31 Oct 26 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 219 | Colombian security forces announce at least one more high-value kill or capture within Iván Mordisco's Estado Mayor Central within 60 days of August 31, 2026. | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 62 · 31 Aug 26 | 30 Oct 26 | Likely 65% | Open |
| 218 | The US and Canada announce an agreement that suspends or rescinds the September 29 US import ban on Canadian alcohol, dairy and motorcycles by 2026-10-29. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaCanadaUnited States | No. 91 · 29 Sep 26 | 29 Oct 26 | Unlikely 25% | Open |
| 217 | The US-Venezuela oil concession announced August 28, 2026 converts into signed, definitive joint-venture contracts within 60 days (by October 28, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanVenezuelaUnited States | No. 60 · 29 Aug 26 | 28 Oct 26 | Roughly even 45%35% → 45% 30 Aug 26 | Due |
| 216 | The Tigray-led rebel coalition captures the town of Afdeera in Afar, roughly 100 km east of Erebti, within 30 days of the September 27, 2026 fall of Erebti (by October 27, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastEthiopia | No. 90 · 28 Sep 26 | 27 Oct 26 | Roughly even 45% | Due |
| 215 | China's coast guard conducts at least one publicized law-enforcement approach, shadowing incident, or intercept against a Philippine vessel explicitly tied to the Taiwan coastguard-vessel transfer dispute, within 30 days of the September 16, 2026 handover (by October 26, 2026). | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaPhilippinesTaiwan | No. 88 · 26 Sep 26 | 26 Oct 26 | Roughly even 45% | Miss |
| 214 | Colombia's extradition surge draws a formal diplomatic protest or public objection from a recipient government within 60 days of the August 26 disclosure that 30 extraditions have been authorized in 16 days (by October 25, 2026). | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 57 · 26 Aug 26 | 25 Oct 26 | Unlikely 25% | Non liquet |
| 213 | Italy ends or lets lapse its Schengen controls on arrivals from Spain, with no further extension announced, by October 24, 2026. | National SecurityEuropeItalySpain | No. 108 · 16 Oct 26 | 24 Oct 26 | Almost certain 97%62% → 97% 22 Oct 26 | Hit |
| 212 | The Strait of Hormuz remains under a de facto IRGC-authorization regime for large commercial vessels through October 24, 2026, i.e. no verified, sustained reopening follows the September 23 direct US-Iran contact. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 86 · 24 Sep 26 | 24 Oct 26 | Likely 72% | Non liquet |
| 211 | Germany extradites the third Skyeton-arson suspect to Slovakia within 60 days of the August 25 arrest (by October 24, 2026). | National SecurityEuropeSlovakiaGermany | No. 58 · 27 Aug 26 | 24 Oct 26 | Likely 65% | Non liquet |
| 210 | Colombia deports fewer than 5,000 undocumented Venezuelans in the first 60 days of President de la Espriella's crackdown (by October 24, 2026). | Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanColombiaVenezuela | No. 56 · 25 Aug 26 | 24 Oct 26 | Likely 60% | Non liquet |
| 209 | Houthi forces do not fully encircle Taiz city -- cutting off its last remaining supply corridors -- within 30 days of September 22, 2026 (by October 22, 2026). | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastYemen | No. 84 · 22 Sep 26 | 22 Oct 26 | Likely 72% | Miss |
| 208 | Sinaloa Governor Ruben Rocha Moya will remain out of office (on leave, not resuming his duties) for at least 60 consecutive days from his August 22, 2026 second leave request. | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexico | No. 54 · 23 Aug 26 | 22 Oct 26 | Likely 58% | Non liquet |
| 207 | IOM records at least 2,000 additional people displaced from North Darfur into Chad within 30 days of September 21, 2026 (by October 21, 2026). | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudanChad | No. 83 · 21 Sep 26 | 21 Oct 26 | Likely 65% | Non liquet |
| 206 | Cuba's government formally requests international emergency assistance specifically for its electrical grid within 30 days of the September 19 nationwide collapse (by October 20, 2026). | Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanCuba | No. 82 · 20 Sep 26 | 20 Oct 26 | Unlikely 40% | Non liquet |
| 205 | Frontex's next monthly irregular-crossing release (covering September 2026) shows the Western Mediterranean route posting a further year-over-year increase, extending the trend already visible through August. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeSpainMoroccoEuropean Union | No. 79 · 17 Sep 26 | 20 Oct 26 | Likely 58% | Non liquet |
| 204 | Liberia charges another official at the ministerial level or higher (beyond former VP Jewel Howard-Taylor) in the $317 million cocaine case within 60 days of August 21, 2026. | Transnational Organized CrimeAfrica / Middle EastLiberia | No. 52 · 21 Aug 26 | 20 Oct 26 | Unlikely 35% | Miss |
| 203 | The Panama Canal Authority announces a further cut to daily transit slots beyond September's newly set 32/23 levels within 60 days of August 21, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 52 · 21 Aug 26 | 20 Oct 26 | Almost certain 95%65% → 95% 8 Sep 26 | Miss |
| 202 | UKMTO reports at least one attack on a merchant vessel in the Strait of Hormuz or Gulf of Aden on at least 10 of the 14 days from October 6 to October 19, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranYemen | No. 97 · 5 Oct 26 | 19 Oct 26 | Roughly even 50% | Non liquet |
| 201 | Saudi civil defense issues at least one more nationwide or Riyadh-area 'hostile aerial threat' alert -- beyond routine border- or refinery-area intercepts -- within 30 days of the September 19, 2026 Riyadh alert (by October 19, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 81 · 19 Sep 26 | 19 Oct 26 | Very likely 85%55% → 85% 20 Sep 26 | Hit |
| 200 | Panama's government will not publicly signal willingness to settle either the CK Hutchison or Panama Ports Company treaty arbitration claim within 60 days of August 20, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 51 · 20 Aug 26 | 19 Oct 26 | Likely 55% | Non liquet |
| 199 | At least one additional European state announces its own unilateral warship deployment to protect shipping through Bab el-Mandeb -- bypassing the EU's Aspides mission rather than working solely through it -- within 30 days of Italy's September 17, 2026 announcement (by October 17, 2026). | National SecurityEuropeItalyEuropean Union | No. 80 · 18 Sep 26 | 17 Oct 26 | Roughly even 45% | Non liquet |
| 198 | The Panama Canal Authority imposes at least one more neopanamax draft cut or daily transit-slot reduction within 30 days of September 17, 2026 (by October 17, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 79 · 17 Sep 26 | 17 Oct 26 | Very likely 90%68% → 90% 19 Sep 26 | Miss |
| 197 | The US and Iranian governments both publicly confirm agreement on a seven-day Hormuz reopening framework by 2026-10-15. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 93 · 1 Oct 26 | 15 Oct 26 | Unlikely 35% | Miss |
| 196 | China's coast guard or maritime militia takes at least one more coercive action — blocking resupply, water-cannon use, ramming, or collision — against a Philippine vessel near a contested Spratly Islands or Scarborough Shoal feature within 30 days of September 15, 2026. | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaPhilippines | No. 77 · 15 Sep 26 | 15 Oct 26 | Likely 70% | Non liquet |
| 195 | Mexican or US authorities announce the capture or killing of at least one more senior Sinaloa Cartel or CJNG figure within 30 days of the September 14, 2026 Culiacán protests (by October 14, 2026). | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexico | No. 76 · 14 Sep 26 | 14 Oct 26 | Likely 55% | Hit |
| 194 | At least one additional Gulf state beyond Bahrain publicly declines to attend or withdraws from the Iran-Oman Hormuz shipping-management framework within 30 days of the September 14, 2026 Oman talks (by October 13, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranOmanBahrainSaudi ArabiaUnited Arab Emirates | No. 75 · 13 Sep 26 | 13 Oct 26 | Likely 55% | Non liquet |
| 193 | At least one laboratory-confirmed Ebola case is reported in South Sudan by October 13, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastDR CongoSouth Sudan | No. 45 · 14 Aug 26 | 13 Oct 26 | Unlikely 30% | Miss |
| 192 | The Philippines lodges a formal diplomatic protest with China or issues an expulsion order over the September 28, 2026 Jia Hai Ke 7 GPS-spoofing incident near Batanes, within 14 days (by October 12, 2026). | National SecurityAsia / PacificPhilippinesChina | No. 90 · 28 Sep 26 | 12 Oct 26 | Likely 60% | Hit |
| 191 | Neither the ELN nor the Clan del Golfo responds to President de la Espriella's September 12, 2026 blanket end of peace talks with a coordinated, multi-department show of force within 30 days (by October 12, 2026) -- as opposed to scattered, localized incidents. | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 74 · 12 Sep 26 | 12 Oct 26 | Likely 65% | Non liquet |
| 190 | UK prosecutors file formal terrorism or explosives-related charges against at least one of the five men arrested near RAF Fairford within 14 days of the September 27, 2026 arrests (by October 11, 2026). | National SecurityEuropeUnited KingdomUnited States | No. 90 · 28 Sep 26 | 11 Oct 26 | Roughly even 50%65% → 50% 29 Sep 26 | Miss |
| 189 | At least one East Asian refiner formally confirms reduced September or October term-loading volumes from Saudi Aramco within 45 days of this week's rerouting reports (by October 11, 2026), citing the added Red Sea/Africa freight cost. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi Arabia | No. 58 · 27 Aug 26 | 11 Oct 26 | Likely 55% | Non liquet |
| 188 | Pakistan's military carries out at least one acknowledged cross-border strike or ground operation targeting militant safe havens inside Afghan territory within three weeks of the September 19, 2026 Kohat police-lines mosque bombing (by October 10, 2026). | National SecurityAsia / PacificPakistanAfghanistan | No. 81 · 19 Sep 26 | 10 Oct 26 | Likely 55% | Hit |
| 187 | Kaja Kallas's September 10, 2026 proposal to route Russia-sanctions-evasion cases to the European Public Prosecutor's Office does not advance to a formal EU Council decision within 30 days (by October 10, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityEuropeEuropean Union | No. 73 · 11 Sep 26 | 10 Oct 26 | Likely 68% | Hit |
| 186 | At least one FARC-dissident or ELN faction publicly claims a retaliatory attack tied to Colombia's 'Total Peace' reversal within 45 days of the August 26 extradition order. | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 59 · 28 Aug 26 | 10 Oct 26 | Roughly even 50% | Non liquet |
| 185 | South Korean prosecutors will formally indict at least one of the two Chinese nationals arrested August 10-11 for espionage against US-Korean military facilities within 60 days (by October 10, 2026). | National SecurityAsia / PacificSouth KoreaChina | No. 43 · 12 Aug 26 | 10 Oct 26 | Likely 65% | Hit |
| 184 | Jordan or another Gulf Arab state formally requests additional US or NATO air-defense assets (e.g., Patriot batteries or additional interceptors) within 30 days of the September 9 Al Azraq missile strike (by October 9, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastJordanUnited States | No. 71 · 9 Sep 26 | 9 Oct 26 | Unlikely 35% | Non liquet |
| 183 | Canada announces a further round of retaliatory tariffs or other trade-restrictive measures against the United States within 30 days of the September 8-9 US import ban on Canadian alcohol, dairy, and motorcycles (by October 9, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaCanadaUnited States | No. 71 · 9 Sep 26 | 9 Oct 26 | Roughly even 45% | Hit |
| 182 | Afghanistan's Taliban government carries out a publicly claimed retaliatory cross-border strike or attack against Pakistani forces or territory within 14 days of Pakistan's September 24 strikes on 10 Afghan sites. | National SecurityAsia / PacificPakistanAfghanistan | No. 86 · 24 Sep 26 | 8 Oct 26 | Roughly even 50% | Non liquet |
| 181 | The US does not formally pause or suspend deportations to Haiti within 30 days of UN High Commissioner Volker Türk's September 8 call to halt such returns. | Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanHaitiUnited States | No. 72 · 10 Sep 26 | 8 Oct 26 | Very likely 85% | Hit |
| 180 | The European Commission does not reinstate or extend the EU Entry/Exit System's border-flexibility measures within 30 days of their September 6, 2026 expiration (by October 8, 2026), despite IATA's request and continued airport congestion. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEuropean Union | No. 70 · 8 Sep 26 | 8 Oct 26 | Likely 72% | Hit |
| 179 | Sudan's Abdel Fattah al-Burhan accepts the Boulos-proposed 90-day ceasefire, thereby securing his U.S. visa, within 14 days (by October 7, 2026). | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudanUnited States | No. 85 · 23 Sep 26 | 7 Oct 26 | Very unlikely 18% | Miss |
| 178 | Iran publishes specific coordinates or begins actually enforcing (a sanctions listing or interdiction tied to it) the Hormuz exclusion zone described by Supreme National Security Council secretary Mohsen Rezaei, rather than leaving it a stated intention, within 30 days of the September 7, 2026 announcement (by October 7, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIran | No. 69 · 7 Sep 26 | 7 Oct 26 | Likely 55% | Non liquet |
| 177 | China will not issue any official government endorsement (a foreign ministry statement or an official map revision) of the Batanes sovereignty claim within 90 days. | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaPhilippinesTaiwan | No. 9 · 9 Jul 26 | 7 Oct 26 | Likely 75% | Non liquet |
| 176 | Iran carries out at least one more missile or drone strike on a neutral, third-country-flagged commercial vessel (not US- or Iranian-flagged) in the Gulf of Oman or Strait of Hormuz within 21 days of September 15, 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranPanamaOman | No. 77 · 15 Sep 26 | 6 Oct 26 | Likely 75% | Non liquet |
| 175 | Asia-to-U.S. East Coast container rates exceed $12,000 per FEU by October 6, 2026, as the Panama Canal's September transit cuts stack onto the existing Iran-war rerouting premium. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 56 · 25 Aug 26 | 6 Oct 26 | Roughly even 50% | Miss |
| 174 | Omani or international authorities declare the Caroline Bezengi oil slick off Oman's Hallaniyat Islands fully contained within 60 days of August 7, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastOmanRussia | No. 38 · 7 Aug 26 | 6 Oct 26 | Unlikely 30% | Non liquet |
| 173 | At least one of the four 'high-ranking' suspects named in the August 7, 2026 Operation Salem network is formally charged with a cross-border trafficking offense, rather than held only in pretrial detention, within 60 days. | Transnational Organized CrimeEuropeSpainAlgeria | No. 38 · 7 Aug 26 | 6 Oct 26 | Likely 65% | Non liquet |
| 172 | Colombia's incoming government formally suspends or ends the government's ELN peace talks within 60 days of Friday's inauguration (by October 6, 2026). | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 35 · 4 Aug 26 | 6 Oct 26 | Very likely 90%68% → 90% 6 Oct 26 | Hit |
| 171 | Within his first 60 days in office, Colombia's President de la Espriella will not have formally submitted legislation or a decree seeking to abolish the JEP peace tribunal. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 10 · 10 Jul 26 | 6 Oct 26 | Likely 70% | Non liquet |
| 170 | Neither Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar nor Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar will be captured, killed, or surrendered to authorities within 90 days. | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 8 · 8 Jul 26 | 6 Oct 26 | Likely 55% | Hit |
| 169 | Saudi Arabia publicly confirms or announces a kinetic military strike on Houthi launch sites or territory in direct retaliation for the September 19-20 Riyadh airport strike, within 14 days (by October 4, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 82 · 20 Sep 26 | 4 Oct 26 | Unlikely 30% | Non liquet |
| 168 | The U.S. Treasury designates at least one more bank or financial network for facilitating Iranian oil-revenue laundering within 30 days of the September 4, 2026 Golden Global Bank designation (by October 4, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastUnited StatesIranTurkey | No. 68 · 6 Sep 26 | 4 Oct 26 | Likely 75% | Hit |
| 167 | Trinidadian authorities do not publicly identify the trafficking organization behind the September 4 backhoe-tire cocaine seizure within 30 days of the bust. | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanTrinidad and Tobago | No. 66 · 4 Sep 26 | 4 Oct 26 | Likely 55% | Hit |
| 166 | The United States does not publicly accept responsibility for the September 1 Kuhestak wedding-celebration strike within 30 days, despite the Reuters weapons-expert forensic finding of a likely direct US hit. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 66 · 4 Sep 26 | 4 Oct 26 | Likely 62% | Hit |
| 165 | Houthi forces attack, fire upon, or forcibly board at least one Saudi-flagged or Saudi-bound commercial vessel actually transiting Bab al-Mandeb within 21 days of today (by October 3, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia | No. 74 · 12 Sep 26 | 3 Oct 26 | Likely 68%55% → 68% 18 Sep 26 | Non liquet |
| 164 | Dutch prosecutors publicly name a specific criminal organization behind the September 1 Overasselt shooting within 30 days (by October 3, 2026). | Transnational Organized CrimeEuropeNetherlands | No. 65 · 3 Sep 26 | 3 Oct 26 | Roughly even 52% | Non liquet |
| 163 | Nigerian authorities formally file trafficking or fraud charges against QNET/IGNITE ringleader Ouattra Adama within sixty days of his August 4 arrest. | Transnational Organized CrimeAfrica / Middle EastNigeria | No. 36 · 5 Aug 26 | 3 Oct 26 | Roughly even 52% | Non liquet |
| 162 | Egypt and China announce a publicly quantified economic agreement (investment, financing, or infrastructure deal) worth at least one billion dollars within 30 days of Xi Jinping's September 1-2 Cairo visit, by October 2, 2026. | PartnershipsAfrica / Middle EastEgyptChina | No. 64 · 2 Sep 26 | 2 Oct 26 | Likely 55% | Non liquet |
| 161 | The EU's diplomatic service (EEAS) does not publicly release the specific accounts, networks, or entities behind its Russia/Israel Ceuta-disinformation finding within 30 days of September 1, 2026 (by October 1, 2026). | National SecurityEuropeSpainEuropean UnionRussiaIsrael | No. 65 · 3 Sep 26 | 1 Oct 26 | Unlikely 35% | Hit |
| 160 | Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy strikes (via drone, missile, or naval mine/sabotage incident) at least one more Gulf Arab state beyond today's UAE drone incident within 30 days, by October 1, 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited Arab EmiratesSaudi ArabiaBahrainQatarKuwait | No. 63 · 1 Sep 26 | 1 Oct 26 | Very likely 92%60% → 68% → 92% 3 Sep 26 | Hit |
| 159 | The US and Mexico do not have a signed USMCA-related trade agreement in hand at their September 28-29, 2026 meeting. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 80 · 18 Sep 26 | 30 Sep 26 | Likely 65% | Hit |
| 158 | Saudi Arabia neither confirms nor denies the Houthi claim of an F-15 shootdown over Marib within 14 days of the claim (by September 30, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 78 · 16 Sep 26 | 30 Sep 26 | Likely 68% | Non liquet |
| 157 | The UN Security Council reauthorizes Haiti's Gang Suppression Force (a resolution renewing or extending its mandate) before the current authorization lapses on September 30, 2026, with no gap in authorization. | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanHaitiUnited StatesPanama | No. 77 · 15 Sep 26 | 30 Sep 26 | Likely 68% | Hit |
| 156 | Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline resumes at least partial crude flow to Yanbu by September 30, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi Arabia | No. 76 · 14 Sep 26 | 30 Sep 26 | Almost certain 97%55% → 97% 1 Oct 26us 97% · Polymarket 56% | Hit |
| 155 | The Bab al-Mandeb Strait is effectively closed to commercial shipping (near-zero transits) at some point before September 30, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia | No. 75 · 13 Sep 26 | 30 Sep 26 | Very unlikely 12%us 12% · Polymarket 5% | Miss |
| 154 | Bab al-Mandeb Strait is effectively closed to commercial shipping by September 30, 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemen | No. 69 · 7 Sep 26 | 30 Sep 26 | Roughly even 47%18% → 25% → 30% → 35% → 42% → 47% 18 Sep 26us 47% · Polymarket 6% | Miss |
| 153 | Iran or an Iran-aligned proxy conducts at least one more attack on a US or partner-country military site within 30 days of August 31, 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited StatesJordan | No. 62 · 31 Aug 26 | 30 Sep 26 | Very likely 90%68% → 90% 2 Sep 26 | Hit |
| 152 | Peru's Congress passes a substantially narrowed version of President Fujimori's 120-day decree-powers bill — one that drops the military prison-control or border-security provisions — rather than the package as submitted, by September 30, 2026. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanPeru | No. 61 · 30 Aug 26 | 30 Sep 26 | Likely 55% | Miss |
| 151 | Italy will reject at least the next five formal Dublin transfer requests Germany files, through September 30, 2026, extending its record of refusing every request since June 12. | PartnershipsEuropeItalyGermany | No. 48 · 17 Aug 26 | 30 Sep 26 | Likely 78%62% → 78% 20 Aug 26 | Non liquet |
| 150 | Federal prison officials will designate Ismael Zambada to a standard high-security or supermax facility, not the prison medical center his defense requested. | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 20 · 20 Jul 26 | 30 Sep 26 | Likely 55% | Non liquet |
| 149 | Sudan's cholera outbreak case-fatality rate will not fall below 10% before the end of the rainy season, absent a negotiated humanitarian pause allowing aid access into besieged areas like el-Obeid. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudan | No. 11 · 11 Jul 26 | 30 Sep 26 | Likely 65% | Non liquet |
| 148 | The EU will not conclude a finalized return-hub agreement with Rwanda or Uzbekistan before 30 September 2026; talks slip, as prior EU/UK third-country schemes have. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeEuropean UnionRwandaUzbekistan | No. 3 · 3 Jul 26 | 30 Sep 26 | Likely 60% | Hit |
| 147 | Washington's September 29, 2026 Section 338 import-ban proclamations against Canadian-origin alcohol, dairy products, molasses, and motorcycles take effect on that date as written, without being paused or narrowed by a negotiated US-Canada exemption. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaCanadaUnited States | No. 73 · 11 Sep 26 | 29 Sep 26 | Likely 65% | Hit |
| 146 | The United States formally imposes new countermeasures against Canada -- a new or increased tariff, an additional product designation, or another concrete trade-restrictive measure explicitly tied to Canada's September 8 retaliatory tariffs -- within 21 days (by September 29, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaCanadaUnited States | No. 70 · 8 Sep 26 | 29 Sep 26 | Almost certain 98%65% → 98% 9 Sep 26 | Hit |
| 145 | The United States resumes large-scale strikes against Iran within 7 days of the September 20-21, 2026 mutual attack warnings (by September 28, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 83 · 21 Sep 26 | 28 Sep 26 | Very unlikely 8%30% → 15% → 8% 23 Sep 26 | Miss |
| 144 | Poland does not formally request NATO Article 4 consultations specifically citing the September 13, 2026 Yahodyn drone strike within 14 days (by September 28, 2026). | National SecurityEuropePolandRussiaUkraine | No. 76 · 14 Sep 26 | 28 Sep 26 | Likely 70% | Hit |
| 143 | The Houthis will publish a toll/fee schedule or begin actually collecting payments from commercial shipping transiting Bab el-Mandeb within 60 days of the July 29 report of the scheme. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi ArabiaIran | No. 30 · 30 Jul 26 | 28 Sep 26 | Unlikely 30% | Miss |
| 142 | The September 24, 2026 Trump-Xi summit produces a joint statement or official readout containing a specific rare-earth export volume or licensing commitment -- not just a general pledge to 'continue cooperation' -- within 3 days of the summit (by September 27, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAsia / PacificChinaUnited States | No. 84 · 22 Sep 26 | 27 Sep 26 | Unlikely 35% | Miss |
| 141 | The U.S. Treasury sanctions at least one additional senior Nicaraguan official within 60 days of the July 28 constitutional-reform announcement. | Illegal ImmigrationCentral AmericaNicaraguaUnited States | No. 30 · 30 Jul 26 | 26 Sep 26 | Likely 65% | Miss |
| 140 | Peru's government will formally invoke the military's new 'orden interno' authority in at least one high-crime region within 60 days of Fujimori's July 28 inauguration. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanPeru | No. 29 · 29 Jul 26 | 26 Sep 26 | Likely 62% | Miss |
| 139 | Brussels will record fewer gang-linked shooting incidents in the 30 days after Belgium's August 26 national-emergency declaration than in the 30 days before it. | Transnational Organized CrimeEuropeBelgium | No. 59 · 28 Aug 26 | 25 Sep 26 | Likely 65%50% → 65% 30 Aug 26 | Non liquet |
| 138 | Moldovan or Romanian prosecutors will file formal charges against Rabbi Pinhas Zaltzman in the Ukraine-to-Israel arms-smuggling case within the next two months. | Transnational Organized CrimeEuropeMoldovaRomaniaIsrael | No. 27 · 27 Jul 26 | 25 Sep 26 | Roughly even 45% | Miss |
| 137 | Saudi Arabia does not announce a formal countermeasure — a naval escort program, a war-risk insurance pool, or a formal UN protest — against the Houthi Yanbu tanker campaign within 30 days (by September 24, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 56 · 25 Aug 26 | 24 Sep 26 | Roughly even 45%58% → 45% 17 Sep 26 | Non liquet |
| 136 | A Western wire service (Reuters, AP, or AFP) does not independently confirm Iran's claimed September 9 missile strikes on US Navy destroyers DDG-119 and DDG-53, or its claimed capture of a US submarine drone near the Strait of Hormuz, within 14 days (by September 23, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited StatesJordan | No. 71 · 9 Sep 26 | 23 Sep 26 | Likely 72% | Hit |
| 135 | The EU will propose or adopt a supplementary Russia-sanctions measure specifically targeting the shadow fleet, LNG trade, or the Kirill/Alekperov carve-outs within two months of the watered-down 21st package. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityEuropeRussiaEuropean UnionBulgaria | No. 23 · 23 Jul 26 | 23 Sep 26 | Likely 60% | Miss |
| 134 | A Chinese research vessel (the Tong Ji or another PLA-linked survey ship) is observed again within 30 nautical miles of a Taiwanese naval facility within 30 days of the August 21, 2026 Tong Ji sighting. | National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina | No. 54 · 23 Aug 26 | 22 Sep 26 | Likely 70% | Miss |
| 133 | China does not conduct a large-scale (multi-day, multi-domain) military exercise near Taiwan in the 30 days before the reported September 2026 Xi-Trump meeting. | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaTaiwanUnited States | No. 53 · 22 Aug 26 | 21 Sep 26 | Likely 55% | Hit |
| 132 | Iran carries out at least one more missile or drone attack on a U.S. Navy vessel in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Strait of Hormuz within 14 days of the September 5, 2026 exchange (by September 19, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 68 · 6 Sep 26 | 19 Sep 26 | Very likely 90%60% → 90% 9 Sep 26 | Hit |
| 131 | Heraclio Guerrero Martínez ("Tío Lako") will not be captured or killed within 30 days of the August 19, 2026 Michoacán strike on his family network. | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexico | No. 51 · 20 Aug 26 | 19 Sep 26 | Likely 70% | Hit |
| 130 | The ELN carries out at least one more drone attack against Colombian security forces in Cesar or Norte de Santander department within 14 days of the September 4-5 Ocaña battalion attack (by September 18, 2026). | National SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 67 · 5 Sep 26 | 18 Sep 26 | Likely 70% | Hit |
| 129 | EU immigration ministers from the five lead states (Germany, Austria, Denmark, Greece, Netherlands) publicly name a preferred return-hub host country after their September 4, 2026 Copenhagen meeting, rather than continuing to describe the roughly dozen candidates as an indicative, non-exhaustive list, by September 18, 2026. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastRwandaUgandaGermanyAustriaDenmarkGreeceNetherlands | No. 61 · 30 Aug 26 | 18 Sep 26 | Roughly even 50% | Miss |
| 128 | Spain returns at least half of the roughly 5,000 people still irregularly present in Ceuta, including registered minors, to Morocco within 30 days. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeSpainMorocco | No. 50 · 19 Aug 26 | 18 Sep 26 | Likely 65% | Miss |
| 127 | The UAE's trade suspension on Iran stays formally in effect for at least 30 days without a negotiated reopening. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastUnited Arab EmiratesIran | No. 50 · 19 Aug 26 | 18 Sep 26 | Likely 75% | Hit |
| 126 | Western Balkan truckers follow through with a verified border blockade against the EU on or around September 14, 2026, absent an EU concession on the Schengen 90-day stay rule before then. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityEuropeSerbiaBosnia and HerzegovinaNorth MacedoniaMontenegro | No. 63 · 1 Sep 26 | 17 Sep 26 | Very unlikely 8%62% → 8% 15 Sep 26 | Miss |
| 125 | IOM's Missing Migrants Project will record more than 100 deaths or disappearances on the central Mediterranean (Libya-departure) route in the 30 days following August 18, 2026. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastLibya | No. 51 · 20 Aug 26 | 17 Sep 26 | Likely 65% | Miss |
| 124 | At least one more commercial vessel is hijacked or attacked by suspected Somali pirates within 30 days of August 18, 2026 (by September 17, 2026). | Transnational Organized CrimeAfrica / Middle EastSomalia | No. 49 · 18 Aug 26 | 17 Sep 26 | Likely 65% | Hit |
| 123 | The US will carry out at least one confirmed joint land operation with Colombian or Ecuadorian forces against a criminal-group target within 30 days of Hegseth's August 2026 announcement (by September 16, 2026). | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaUnited StatesColombiaEcuador | No. 48 · 17 Aug 26 | 16 Sep 26 | Likely 55% | Hit |
| 122 | Venezuela's government will not have moved the Caracas families displaced by the August 16 rains -- from the Misión Vivienda OPP-10 complex and the Panteón boulevard encampment -- into permanent housing within 30 days (by September 16, 2026). | Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanVenezuela | No. 48 · 17 Aug 26 | 16 Sep 26 | Likely 70% | Hit |
| 121 | The UN Security Council will not adopt a resolution formally expanding the Darfur arms embargo to cover all of Sudan within two months of publication. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSudan | No. 17 · 17 Jul 26 | 16 Sep 26 | Likely 75% | Hit |
| 120 | Colombian authorities publicly and formally attribute the September 1 Los Patios (Cúcuta) car bombing to a specific named armed group within 14 days, by September 15, 2026. | National SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanColombiaVenezuela | No. 64 · 2 Sep 26 | 15 Sep 26 | Likely 60% | Hit |
| 119 | A fourth CJNG-attributed bombing or armed attack against Mexican security forces occurs in Zacatecas within 14 days of today, by September 15, 2026. | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexico | No. 63 · 1 Sep 26 | 15 Sep 26 | Likely 68% | Miss |
| 118 | The Houthi movement carries out at least one further attack on a vessel trading with Saudi Arabia (Saudi-flagged or foreign) within 21 days of the August 25 Yanbu strike (by September 15, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 57 · 26 Aug 26 | 15 Sep 26 | Likely 65% | Miss |
| 117 | At least one more Ecuadorian fishing vessel is struck by an unattributed drone or explosive device within 30 days of August 16, continuing the pattern of at least two such unclaimed strikes since March. | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanEcuador | No. 47 · 16 Aug 26 | 15 Sep 26 | Roughly even 50% | Miss |
| 116 | Yemen's Mocha port will not resume any commercial or maritime operations within 30 days of the August 9-15 Houthi missile barrage that forced its shutdown. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemen | No. 47 · 16 Aug 26 | 15 Sep 26 | Likely 68% | Hit |
| 115 | At least one major container line (MSC, CMA CGM, or a peer) formally announces a Panama Canal congestion or draft-related surcharge on Asia-U.S. East/Gulf Coast routings by September 15, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanamaUnited States | No. 39 · 8 Aug 26 | 15 Sep 26 | Almost certain 97%72% → 97% 13 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 114 | A Western wire service (Reuters, AP, or AFP) independently confirms Iran's claimed August 31 supertanker mine strike in the Strait of Hormuz, including the vessel's name, within 14 days. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIran | No. 62 · 31 Aug 26 | 14 Sep 26 | Unlikely 30% | Miss |
| 113 | Confirmed cases in the DRC's current Bundibugyo-strain Ebola outbreak surpass 6,000 by September 14, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastDemocratic Republic of the Congo | No. 46 · 15 Aug 26 | 14 Sep 26 | Almost certain 99%55% → 99% 9 Sep 26 | Hit |
| 112 | The U.S. will not file its first material-support-for-terrorism prosecution tied specifically to the July 16 Juárez Cartel/Los Viagras FTO designation within 60 days of publication. | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 16 · 16 Jul 26 | 14 Sep 26 | Likely 78% | Hit |
| 111 | Neither the UAE nor Oman formally joins Saudi Arabia's new Multinational Maritime Defense Alliance within 30 days of its August 14, 2026 launch. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastUnited Arab EmiratesOmanSaudi Arabia | No. 46 · 15 Aug 26 | 13 Sep 26 | Likely 65% | Hit |
| 110 | Germany announces at least one concrete measure against Russia — a diplomat expulsion, an asset freeze, or a named sanctions listing — over the Leipzig airport drone plot within 14 days of this brief (by September 12, 2026). | National SecurityEuropeGermanyRussia | No. 61 · 30 Aug 26 | 12 Sep 26 | Likely 72% | Hit |
| 109 | Frontex or Europol formally deploys personnel or resources to Ceuta within two weeks of Spain's August 28, 2026 request (by September 12, 2026). | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeSpainMorocco | No. 60 · 29 Aug 26 | 12 Sep 26 | Likely 60% | Hit |
| 108 | Neither Mali nor Morocco formally confirms Morocco's mediation role in the Yann Vézilier release within 30 days of the August 13, 2026 pardon. | PartnershipsAfrica / Middle EastMaliMoroccoFrance | No. 46 · 15 Aug 26 | 12 Sep 26 | Likely 70% | Hit |
| 107 | At least one other EU or NATO member state publicly cites Poland's foiled assassination plot in announcing new counter-Russian-espionage or security measures within 30 days of August 13, 2026. | National SecurityEuropePolandRussia | No. 45 · 14 Aug 26 | 12 Sep 26 | Roughly even 50% | Miss |
| 106 | Poland will announce a new incremental reinforcement of its own Belarus border (additional troops, barrier extension, or an emergency border-guard surge) specifically citing the tunnel-digging pattern documented in Lithuania, within 45 days. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropePolandBelarusLithuania | No. 29 · 29 Jul 26 | 12 Sep 26 | Likely 58%50% → 58% 13 Aug 26 | Miss |
| 105 | The Libyan National Army will name a permanent successor to Fawzi al-Mansouri's Benghazi military-intelligence post within 30 days of his August 10 assassination (by September 11, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastLibya | No. 43 · 12 Aug 26 | 11 Sep 26 | Roughly even 50% | Miss |
| 104 | Houthi forces will not gain physical control of Yemen's al-Makha port within 30 days of the August 10 missile and drone strikes on the port. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia | No. 42 · 11 Aug 26 | 10 Sep 26 | Unlikely 30%72% → 58% → 45% → 30% 5 Sep 26 | Miss |
| 103 | At least one Kenscoff-area hostage is confirmed killed by Viv Ansanm captors within 14 days of the August 23 attack (by September 9, 2026). | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanHaiti | No. 57 · 26 Aug 26 | 9 Sep 26 | Likely 55%40% → 55% 29 Aug 26 | Miss |
| 102 | Canada's announced September 8, 2026 retaliatory tariffs on US steel, dairy, appliances, agricultural equipment, pulp and paper, and electronics take effect on that date, without being averted or postponed by a new US-Canada deal. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaCanadaUnited States | No. 54 · 23 Aug 26 | 9 Sep 26 | Almost certain 97%60% → 97% 8 Sep 26 | Hit |
| 101 | Jamaican authorities file formal charges against at least one Kingston container-terminal (KFTL) employee in the cocaine-bust probe within 30 days (by September 8, 2026). | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanJamaica | No. 40 · 9 Aug 26 | 8 Sep 26 | Likely 65% | Non liquet |
| 100 | Italy formally extends its Ceuta-related Schengen suspension with Spain beyond the scheduled September 1 expiration. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeItalySpain | No. 36 · 5 Aug 26 | 8 Sep 26 | Roughly even 45%35% → 45% 8 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 99 | China's monthly detentions of Panama-flagged vessels will not climb back above 100 in either of the next two reported months (through August 2026), extending June's de-escalation from May's peak of 140. | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaPanamaUnited States | No. 9 · 9 Jul 26 | 7 Sep 26 | Likely 65%55% → 65% 16 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 98 | Thailand will not issue a formal cabinet decision or decree rescheduling cannabis back to controlled-narcotic status within two months. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAsia / PacificThailand | No. 7 · 7 Jul 26 | 7 Sep 26 | Likely 55% | Hit |
| 97 | Thailand announces a concrete scam-compound or border-crossing enforcement action against Myanmar-based networks within 30 days of this week's Bangkok visit (by September 6, 2026). | PartnershipsAsia / PacificThailandMyanmar | No. 35 · 4 Aug 26 | 6 Sep 26 | Roughly even 50% | Miss |
| 96 | None of the four active-duty Italian military personnel under investigation in the Rome espionage case will be formally charged within 60 days — the case will still be described as an active investigation, not a completed prosecution. | National SecurityEuropeItalyRussia | No. 8 · 8 Jul 26 | 6 Sep 26 | Likely 68% | Hit |
| 95 | Colombian prosecutors formally charge the intercepted Cauca explosives plot to a named Estado Mayor Central commander within 30 days of August 6, 2026. | National SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 37 · 6 Aug 26 | 5 Sep 26 | Likely 55% | Miss |
| 94 | The EU formally tables Kaja Kallas's proposed new Russia sanctions package within 14 days of the August 21, 2026 Kryvyi Rih shopping-center strike. | National SecurityEuropeEuropean UnionRussiaUkraine | No. 53 · 22 Aug 26 | 4 Sep 26 | Likely 68% | Miss |
| 93 | The Houthi movement carries out at least one further attack on Saudi Arabia within 14 days of August 20, 2026's claimed Najran airport and Aramco strikes. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia | No. 52 · 21 Aug 26 | 4 Sep 26 | Likely 55% | Hit |
| 92 | A major container or tanker shipping line publicly suspends new transits of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days of the August 3 Minoan Pioneer strike (by September 3, 2026). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranYemenOmanSaudi Arabia | No. 35 · 4 Aug 26 | 3 Sep 26 | Unlikely 30%50% → 60% → 68% → 30% 14 Aug 26 | Non liquet |
| 91 | The Andean Court of Justice orders an interim suspension of Peru's REINFO informal-mining program within its 40-day response window (by approximately September 3, 2026). | Illicit Trade / Econ SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanPeru | No. 25 · 25 Jul 26 | 3 Sep 26 | Unlikely 25% | Miss |
| 90 | Cuba's government does not announce a formal energy-emergency measure (expanded fuel rationing or a state-of-emergency declaration tied explicitly to the grid) within 30 days of the August 2-3 nationwide blackout. | Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanCuba | No. 34 · 3 Aug 26 | 2 Sep 26 | Likely 72% | Hit |
| 89 | Saudi Arabia will not commit its own ground troops into Houthi-held Yemen territory (as distinct from backing a Yemeni-government-forces-led push) within 30 days of the reported mobilization. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 33 · 2 Aug 26 | 1 Sep 26 | Likely 78% | Hit |
| 88 | The Panama Canal Authority announces at least one further transit or booking restriction, beyond the already-scheduled July 25 auction halt and August 15 draft cut, before September 1. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 21 · 21 Jul 26 | 1 Sep 26 | Almost certain 97%65% → 40% → 97% 26 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 87 | The European Commission grants a formal suspension or airport-by-airport flexibility of EES biometric checks before September 1, 2026. | PartnershipsEuropeEuropean Union | No. 5 · 5 Jul 26 | 1 Sep 26 | Likely 60%45% → 55% → 60% 12 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 86 | The three police officers kidnapped by the ELN in Catatumbo on August 17 are released unharmed within two weeks. | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 50 · 19 Aug 26 | 31 Aug 26 | Likely 70% | Miss |
| 85 | Iran and Oman formally sign or jointly announce their Strait of Hormuz transit-route agreement by August 31, 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranOman | No. 37 · 6 Aug 26 | 31 Aug 26 | Very unlikely 10%82% → 76% → 55% → 40% → 20% → 10% 30 Aug 26us 10% · Polymarket 90% | Hit |
| 84 | Spain begins physical installation of the floating barriers Prime Minister Sánchez announced for Ceuta's waters within 30 days of the August 1 announcement. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeSpainMorocco | No. 32 · 1 Aug 26 | 31 Aug 26 | Almost certain 97%50% → 97% 2 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 83 | Strait of Hormuz daily commercial vessel transits will not climb back above 25 ships a day by August 31, despite the Iran-Oman technical talks on safe passage. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranOmanUnited States | No. 27 · 27 Jul 26 | 31 Aug 26 | Very likely 80%65% → 72% → 78% → 82% → 90% → 88% → 95% → 75% → 80% 30 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 82 | Iran releases both detained French diplomats within 14 days of their August 15 detention without filing formal charges. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranFrance | No. 47 · 16 Aug 26 | 30 Aug 26 | Likely 60% | Hit |
| 81 | Italy does not formally move to suspend Schengen with Spain within 30 days of Tajani's July 31 remarks (by August 30). | PartnershipsEuropeItalySpainEuropean Union | No. 31 · 31 Jul 26 | 30 Aug 26 | Almost no chance 3%55% → 3% 1 Aug 26 | Miss |
| 80 | Canada publishes a specific, named list of retaliatory tariff targets (not just Carney's general 'dollar for dollar' pledge) within 7 days of the August 22, 2026 US 50% tariff imposition. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaCanadaUnited States | No. 53 · 22 Aug 26 | 29 Aug 26 | Almost certain 97%65% → 97% 23 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 79 | Ecuadorian authorities formally attribute the July 27 Cañar killings to a specific gang (Los Lobos, Los Águilas, or another named group) within 30 days. | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanEcuador | No. 30 · 30 Jul 26 | 29 Aug 26 | Roughly even 50% | Miss |
| 78 | The Houthi movement or an Iran-aligned Iraqi militia carries out at least one attack specifically on Gulf energy, port, or airport infrastructure within three weeks of Saudi Arabia's August 7 warning, by August 28, 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemenIraq | No. 39 · 8 Aug 26 | 28 Aug 26 | Almost certain 95%55% → 95% 21 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 77 | RSF-aligned drones will not strike Khartoum or Atbara again within 14 days of the August 12, 2026 strikes. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSudan | No. 44 · 13 Aug 26 | 27 Aug 26 | Likely 62%reaffirmed 14 Aug 26 | Miss |
| 76 | Panama Canal Authority slot-auction prices for priority transit will average above $1.5 million at least once in the two weeks following August 13, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityCentral AmericaPanama | No. 44 · 13 Aug 26 | 27 Aug 26 | Likely 65%55% → 65% 21 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 75 | Belgian prosecutors will not publicly name the foreign country behind the NATO-intern espionage case within 30 days of the July 25 arrest. | National SecurityEuropeBelgiumCanada | No. 28 · 28 Jul 26 | 27 Aug 26 | Roughly even 50% | Miss |
| 74 | María Corina Machado's faction publicly rejects the outcome of the August 6-12 Caracas transition talks within two weeks of their conclusion (by August 26, 2026). | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanVenezuelaUnited States | No. 40 · 9 Aug 26 | 26 Aug 26 | Likely 62% | Miss |
| 73 | Colombia's national government will formally request UN OCHA-coordinated international disaster assistance for the August 10 earthquake within two weeks (by August 25, 2026). | Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 42 · 11 Aug 26 | 25 Aug 26 | Roughly even 45% | Hit |
| 72 | Liberia's government names or charges at least one additional police or port official in the $317 million cocaine case within 30 days, beyond Deputy Commissioner Johnny Dean's dismissal. | Transnational Organized CrimeAfrica / Middle EastLiberia | No. 26 · 26 Jul 26 | 25 Aug 26 | Almost certain 95%60% → 95% 1 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 71 | USDA's planned reopening of the Douglas, Arizona port to Mexican cattle, bison, and horse imports proceeds on schedule on August 24, 2026, without a new screwworm-related delay. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 41 · 10 Aug 26 | 24 Aug 26 | Likely 65% | Miss |
| 70 | Ethiopian federal forces and Tigray's TPLF clash again militarily near the Sheraro/Tigray border within three weeks of the August 1-2 fighting. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastEthiopiaSudan | No. 34 · 3 Aug 26 | 24 Aug 26 | Likely 68%50% → 68% 4 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 69 | USDA's Douglas, Arizona cattle port reopens on its announced August 24 date without being delayed or paused by a new screwworm detection in Sonora or Chihuahua. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 26 · 26 Jul 26 | 24 Aug 26 | Likely 65% | Miss |
| 68 | Saudi Arabia will not have issued an official statement attributing the August 9 Jazan refinery fire to a Houthi attack by August 23, 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 40 · 9 Aug 26 | 23 Aug 26 | Likely 55% | Hit |
| 67 | The U.S. and Iran will sign or otherwise formally finalize an agreement matching the terms Trump described on August 1-2 (full Hormuz reopening plus a verified end to Iran's nuclear weapons program) within three weeks, by August 23. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 33 · 2 Aug 26 | 23 Aug 26 | Unlikely 35%50% → 35% 11 Aug 26 | Miss |
| 66 | A specific replacement crypto exchange or rail will be publicly identified as absorbing Russia-linked flows displaced from HTX before the EU's August 23 transaction ban takes effect. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityEuropeRussiaEuropean Union | No. 26 · 26 Jul 26 | 23 Aug 26 | Likely 70% | Miss |
| 65 | Estado Mayor Central or the Clan del Golfo carries out at least one more bombing or armed attack on a Colombian security or infrastructure target within two weeks of the August 8 Cauca car bombing (by August 22, 2026). | National SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 41 · 10 Aug 26 | 22 Aug 26 | Likely 70% | Hit |
| 64 | The U.S. will not conduct any military strikes inside Mali within 30 days of the July 22 report of internal deliberations over JNIM strike options. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastMaliUnited StatesRussia | No. 23 · 23 Jul 26 | 22 Aug 26 | Likely 62% | Hit |
| 63 | The Korea Customs Service announces at least one concrete new traveler-screening measure -- expanded passenger risk-profiling, added K-9 units, or a new advance-passenger data requirement -- within 30 days of its record H1 2026 seizure report. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAsia / PacificSouth Korea | No. 22 · 22 Jul 26 | 21 Aug 26 | Likely 65% | Hit |
| 62 | De la Espriella (inaugurated 7 Aug) will begin his pledged 90-day military crackdown on armed groups within his first two weeks in office (by 21 Aug). | Transnational Organized CrimeSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 2 · 2 Jul 26 | 21 Aug 26 | Very likely 85%65% → 85% 20 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 61 | Canada and the US miss Wednesday's deadline and at least partial 50-percent tariffs on Canadian goods take effect on schedule August 19, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaCanadaUnited States | No. 49 · 18 Aug 26 | 20 Aug 26 | Almost no chance 3%55% → 3% 19 Aug 26 | Miss |
| 60 | The Saudi-led coalition conducts at least one direct airstrike on Houthi positions in Marib or Hadhramaut province within two weeks of the August 6, 2026 Houthi ground offensive. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia | No. 38 · 7 Aug 26 | 20 Aug 26 | Likely 65% | Miss |
| 59 | The Houthi movement strikes at least one more vessel transiting the Suez-bound northern Red Sea within 14 days of August 6, 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia | No. 37 · 6 Aug 26 | 20 Aug 26 | Likely 72% | Hit |
| 58 | The US and Canada do not finalize a steel-and-aluminum tariff-rate-quota deal before the August 19 deadline, and Washington's 50% tariffs on the announced roughly $20 billion of Canadian exports take effect as scheduled. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaCanadaUnited States | No. 36 · 5 Aug 26 | 20 Aug 26 | Likely 60% | Miss |
| 57 | A further physical confrontation between Chinese and Philippine vessels or personnel occurs at a South China Sea shoal within 30 days of the July 20-21 Second Thomas Shoal incident. | National SecurityAsia / PacificPhilippinesChina | No. 21 · 21 Jul 26 | 20 Aug 26 | Almost certain 95%70% → 95% 28 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 56 | The US's threatened 50% tariff on roughly $20 billion of Canadian goods does not take effect as scheduled on August 19, 2026. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaCanadaUnited States | No. 45 · 14 Aug 26 | 19 Aug 26 | Almost certain 97%55% → 68% → 97% 19 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 55 | Canada formally invokes CUSMA/USMCA dispute-settlement procedures against the new Section 338 tariffs within 30 days of the July 20 announcement, rather than confining its response to talks. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaCanadaUnited States | No. 21 · 21 Jul 26 | 19 Aug 26 | Roughly even 50% | Miss |
| 54 | Fewer than 500 people will attempt an irregular crossing into Ceuta around the rumored August 15, 2026 'border opening.' | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeSpainMorocco | No. 44 · 13 Aug 26 | 18 Aug 26 | Almost certain 97%65% → 80% → 97% 16 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 53 | Lithuania will formally notify the EU of temporary internal Schengen border controls against Latvia within 30 days of publication. | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeLithuaniaLatvia | No. 19 · 19 Jul 26 | 18 Aug 26 | Unlikely 38% | Miss |
| 52 | Mexican security forces report an actual armed clash — beyond blockades and vehicle burnings — with Carteles Unidos-linked gunmen in Michoacán's Los Reyes or Peribán municipalities within two weeks of the August 1 arrest of Alfonso Fernández Magallón. | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexico | No. 34 · 3 Aug 26 | 17 Aug 26 | Roughly even 48% | Miss |
| 51 | At least one additional merchant vessel will be hijacked or boarded by suspected Somali pirates in the Gulf of Aden within 30 days of publication, continuing the wave of at least 18 incidents since April. | Transnational Organized CrimeAfrica / Middle EastSomaliaYemen | No. 18 · 18 Jul 26 | 17 Aug 26 | Likely 72% | Miss |
| 50 | Saudi Aramco will not have resumed operations at its Jazan refinery units by its previously stated August 15 target, following the second Houthi-claimed drone strike on the facility on August 9. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 41 · 10 Aug 26 | 15 Aug 26 | Likely 55% | Hit |
| 49 | Colombian security forces will attribute at least one more attack to the ELN in the Norte de Santander border region within two weeks of the August 1 Cúcuta bombing, by August 15. | National SecuritySouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 33 · 2 Aug 26 | 15 Aug 26 | Likely 58% | Hit |
| 48 | Indian security services will disrupt at least one more Pakistan-linked Babbar Khalsa International cell or operative before India's August 15 Independence Day. | National SecurityAsia / PacificIndiaPakistan | No. 27 · 27 Jul 26 | 15 Aug 26 | Likely 65% | Hit |
| 47 | Confirmed Ebola cases in the DRC's current Bundibugyo-strain outbreak will exceed 2,500 by August 15. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastDR Congo | No. 15 · 15 Jul 26 | 15 Aug 26 | Almost certain 97%75% → 97% 4 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 46 | Peru's Fujimori government (inaugurated 28 July) will publicly signal continuity or warming of U.S. security cooperation by 15 August. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanPeru | No. 2 · 2 Jul 26 | 15 Aug 26 | Very likely 90%60% → 90% 1 Aug 26 | Hit |
| 45 | The Spain-Morocco return agreement moves fewer than half of the roughly 50,000 people who crossed into Ceuta on July 30 back to Morocco within two weeks (by August 14). | Illegal ImmigrationEuropeSpainMorocco | No. 31 · 31 Jul 26 | 14 Aug 26 | Almost no chance 3%65% → 3% 1 Aug 26 | Miss |
| 44 | Iran conducts at least one more direct strike attempt on Jordanian or Kuwaiti territory within two weeks of the July 30 attacks (by August 13). | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranJordanKuwait | No. 31 · 31 Jul 26 | 13 Aug 26 | Likely 65% | Hit |
| 43 | An Iran-aligned Iraqi militia faction (the Islamic Resistance in Iraq or another Popular Mobilization Forces-aligned group) will carry out at least one retaliatory strike on a U.S. or Saudi-linked target within two weeks of the July 29 U.S.-Saudi strikes on militia positions across Iraq. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIraqSaudi ArabiaUnited StatesIran | No. 29 · 29 Jul 26 | 12 Aug 26 | Likely 68% | Miss |
| 42 | No second major Houthi missile or drone strike on Saudi territory will occur within 30 days of the July 13 Houthi strike on Saudi Arabia's Abha airport. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi Arabia | No. 14 · 14 Jul 26 | 12 Aug 26 | Very unlikely 5%55% → 5% 8 Aug 26 | Miss |
| 41 | No confirmed Bundibugyo-virus Ebola case will be recorded outside DR Congo and Uganda within 30 days of publication. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastDemocratic Republic of the CongoUganda | No. 12 · 12 Jul 26 | 11 Aug 26 | Likely 68% | Hit |
| 40 | Haiti's Provisional Electoral Council will not publish a finalized electoral calendar with a firm nationwide election date within 30 days of publication. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanHaiti | No. 12 · 12 Jul 26 | 11 Aug 26 | Likely 70% | Miss |
| 39 | No Gulf host state (UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia) will formally suspend, restrict, or expel U.S. forces from its bases in response to the widened conflict within 30 days of publication. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited StatesUnited Arab EmiratesQatarBahrain | No. 12 · 12 Jul 26 | 11 Aug 26 | Likely 72% | Hit |
| 38 | De la Espriella will be inaugurated 7 August as scheduled, and Cepeda's threatened 'civil disobedience' will not materially disrupt the transfer of power. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombia | No. 3 · 3 Jul 26 | 10 Aug 26 | Likely 65%70% → 55% → 65% 13 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 37 | At least one additional EU member state will expel Russian diplomatic or embassy staff citing espionage within 30 days of publication. | National SecurityEuropeItalyRussia | No. 10 · 10 Jul 26 | 9 Aug 26 | Likely 55% | Miss |
| 36 | Sudan's army and the RSF will not sign a truce under the U.S. 90-day peace plan within 30 days of publication. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudan | No. 10 · 10 Jul 26 | 9 Aug 26 | Likely 75%72% → 75% 14 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 35 | The Saudi-led coalition strikes Hodeidah port itself, not just nearby Houthi military sites, within two weeks of July 25, 2026. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 25 · 25 Jul 26 | 8 Aug 26 | Roughly even 50% | Miss |
| 34 | Iran will not resume even Oman-mediated contact with Washington within 30 days of Supreme Leader Khamenei's funeral period ending. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited StatesOman | No. 9 · 9 Jul 26 | 8 Aug 26 | Very unlikely 12%65% → 72% → 12% 11 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 33 | President-elect de la Espriella formally severs Colombia's diplomatic relations with Cuba and Nicaragua by his August 7 inauguration. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombiaCubaNicaragua | No. 28 · 28 Jul 26 | 7 Aug 26 | Likely 68% | Hit |
| 32 | The U.S. carries out a strike wave on Iran within 14 days that officials or credible reporting describe as larger in scale than the war's opening night. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 24 · 24 Jul 26 | 7 Aug 26 | Likely 75%55% → 75% 31 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 31 | Colombia's 'Shield of the Americas' liaison office in Medellin is publicly confirmed as staffed or holding its first joint activity by president-elect de la Espriella's August 7 inauguration, rather than remaining an announcement without a functioning presence. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanColombiaUnited States | No. 22 · 22 Jul 26 | 7 Aug 26 | Likely 70% | Miss |
| 30 | The Houthis will strike at least one more Saudi-linked commercial vessel in the Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea corridor within two weeks of the July 22 attacks on the Encelia and Layla. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenSaudi ArabiaIran | No. 23 · 23 Jul 26 | 6 Aug 26 | Very likely 94%72% → 94% 29 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 29 | Iran or Houthi forces will conduct at least one attack on a commercial vessel specifically in the Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea corridor (distinct from the Strait of Hormuz) within three weeks of publication. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranYemen | No. 16 · 16 Jul 26 | 6 Aug 26 | Almost certain 97%52% → 62% → 75% → 97% 23 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 28 | Iran will not carry out a follow-on strike specifically targeting a vessel using the Omani bypass route around the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranOman | No. 7 · 7 Jul 26 | 6 Aug 26 | Very unlikely 10%60% → 10% 8 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 27 | The Sheinbaum-FBI dispute over the 2024 Zambada extraction will not produce a formal downgrade in U.S.-Mexico security or intelligence-sharing cooperation (e.g. a public suspension of a joint operation or a recalled liaison officer) within 30 days. | PartnershipsNorth AmericaMexicoUnited States | No. 7 · 7 Jul 26 | 6 Aug 26 | Likely 68%72% → 78% → 68% 10 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 26 | At least one additional EU member state beyond Italy, Portugal, and Greece formally invokes the EES biometric-suspension flexibility clause at its own border crossings within 30 days. | PartnershipsEuropeEuropean UnionItalyPortugalGreece | No. 6 · 6 Jul 26 | 5 Aug 26 | Likely 60% | Non liquet |
| 25 | RSF forces close el-Obeid's last open route (the eastern corridor) within 30 days. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudan | No. 6 · 6 Jul 26 | 5 Aug 26 | Unlikely 22%50% → 65% → 70% → 20% → 22% 29 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 24 | China conducts a third rotation of its coast-guard patrol group east of Taiwan (a vessel swap similar to the June-July handover) within 30 days. | National SecurityAsia / PacificTaiwanChina | No. 6 · 6 Jul 26 | 5 Aug 26 | Likely 68% | Miss |
| 23 | The IACHR will proceed with its 4 August hearing on Porras-era political-persecution claims as scheduled (not postponed or cancelled). | PartnershipsCentral AmericaGuatemala | No. 3 · 3 Jul 26 | 5 Aug 26 | Likely 75% | Hit |
| 22 | The Saudi-led coalition does not carry out a strike on any of its named Yemeni targets (Hodeidah port, Ras Isa oil terminal, as-Salif port, Sanaa International Airport) within 30 days. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 5 · 5 Jul 26 | 4 Aug 26 | Almost no chance 3%82% → 3% 26 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 21 | A further coordinated, multi-town attack (three or more towns in a single operation) attributed to the FLA/JNIM insurgency occurs in Mali within 30 days. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastMali | No. 5 · 5 Jul 26 | 4 Aug 26 | Likely 65% | Miss |
| 20 | The U.S. will conduct a direct strike specifically on Iranian oil-export infrastructure (export terminals, pipelines, or tanker-loading facilities), distinct from the military, air-defense, and general infrastructure targets struck so far, within the next two weeks. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 20 · 20 Jul 26 | 3 Aug 26 | Very unlikely 10%50% → 72% → 10% 2 Aug 26 | Miss |
| 19 | The Houthis will not conduct an actual attack on Red Sea or Bab el-Mandeb shipping within the next two weeks unless the U.S. strikes Iran's power grid specifically. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastYemenIran | No. 20 · 20 Jul 26 | 3 Aug 26 | Almost no chance 3%65% → 35% → 30% → 3% 23 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 18 | Iran will not conduct a second direct missile or drone strike on Jordanian territory within two weeks of the July 18 Muwaffaq Salti Air Base attack. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastJordanIranUnited States | No. 19 · 19 Jul 26 | 1 Aug 26 | Very unlikely 15%72% → 15% 31 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 17 | Kuwait will avoid declaring formal water-rationing measures within two weeks of the July 17-18 Iranian strikes on its power-and-desalination plant. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastKuwaitIran | No. 18 · 18 Jul 26 | 1 Aug 26 | Likely 68% | Hit |
| 16 | At least one of Bahrain, Kuwait, or Qatar will report a fatality among its own military or civilian personnel from Iranian strikes or retaliatory fire within two weeks of publication. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastQatarBahrainKuwaitIran | No. 17 · 17 Jul 26 | 31 Jul 26 | Likely 60%50% → 55% → 60% 22 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 15 | The U.S.–Iran ceasefire will hold and Strait of Hormuz commercial shipping volumes will keep recovering (no renewed closure or major disruption) through 31 July. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 2 · 2 Jul 26 | 31 Jul 26 | Almost no chance 2%65% → 40% → 10% → 5% → 6% → 4% → 2% 17 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 14 | No actual PRC boarding of, or armed standoff with, a commercial vessel in the Taiwan Strait will occur by 31 July; gray-zone pressure stays below the kinetic threshold. | National SecurityAsia / PacificChinaTaiwan | No. 1 · 1 Jul 26 | 31 Jul 26 | Very likely 85%80% → 85% 20 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 13 | Venezuela's June-24 earthquake casualty/missing figures will be revised further upward and early cross-border displacement indicators will appear by 31 July. | Illegal ImmigrationSouth America & CaribbeanVenezuela | No. 1 · 1 Jul 26 | 31 Jul 26 | Almost certain 96%70% → 75% → 82% → 84% → 88% → 90% → 94% → 96% 23 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 12 | Keiko Fujimori's July 28 inauguration will proceed on schedule, with counter-narcotics and border cooperation continuing uninterrupted through the transition. | PartnershipsSouth America & CaribbeanPeru | No. 4 · 4 Jul 26 | 29 Jul 26 | Almost certain 97%75% → 85% → 97% 29 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 11 | The UAE will not conduct a direct military strike or reprisal action against Iranian territory, forces, or assets within two weeks of Iran's July 14 missile strike that killed a crew member and struck two ADNOC tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastUnited Arab EmiratesIran | No. 14 · 14 Jul 26 | 28 Jul 26 | Likely 78% | Hit |
| 10 | A multiple-fatality incident tied to the Sinaloa Cartel's La Mayiza-Los Chapitos power struggle will occur in Sinaloa state within seven days of Ismael Zambada's July 20 U.S. sentencing hearing. | Transnational Organized CrimeNorth AmericaMexico | No. 19 · 19 Jul 26 | 27 Jul 26 | Likely 62% | Miss |
| 9 | The 20 July U.S.–Mexico USMCA round will conclude without a finalized rules-of-origin agreement; talks continue into a further round. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaUnited StatesMexico | No. 2 · 2 Jul 26 | 27 Jul 26 | Almost certain 97%75% → 85% → 97% 27 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 8 | Canada will not have rejoined the USMCA talks as a full tripartite party by 27 July, and any rules-of-origin movement signaled will be toward tighter content thresholds rather than looser ones. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityNorth AmericaUnited StatesCanadaMexico | No. 1 · 1 Jul 26 | 27 Jul 26 | Almost certain 95%65% → 70% → 78% → 95% 27 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 7 | The EU's 21st Russia sanctions package is adopted at the July 22 Brussels meeting, but the proposed personal listings on Patriarch Kirill and Lukoil founder Vagit Alekperov are dropped or materially watered down from the version originally proposed, rather than adopted intact. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityEuropeRussiaBulgariaItaly | No. 22 · 22 Jul 26 | 25 Jul 26 | Almost certain 95%55% → 95% 23 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 6 | The U.S. will conduct kinetic strikes on Iranian power-generation or bridge/transportation infrastructure by July 25. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited States | No. 15 · 15 Jul 26 | 25 Jul 26 | Almost certain 95%55% → 90% → 95% 20 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 5 | Iran will publicly acknowledge the Strait of Hormuz tanker strikes as a mistake and declare the waterway open to commercial traffic within two weeks. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranUnited StatesOman | No. 11 · 11 Jul 26 | 25 Jul 26 | Almost no chance 2%60% → 25% → 15% → 8% → 4% → 2% 17 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 4 | The RSF's el-Obeid offensive will intensify over the next one to two weeks, and a mass-casualty assault on the scale of El Fasher would trigger a fresh cross-border displacement wave toward Chad and Egypt. | Illegal ImmigrationAfrica / Middle EastSudan | No. 4 · 4 Jul 26 | 25 Jul 26 | Unlikely 20%70% → 75% → 78% → 80% → 20% 27 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 3 | Paused U.S.-Iran Doha talks on the Strait of Hormuz will resume shortly after the funeral concludes, with the toll/fee dispute still unresolved. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranOman | No. 4 · 4 Jul 26 | 20 Jul 26 | Very unlikely 15%60% → 30% → 15% 16 Jul 26 | Miss |
| 2 | The EU will fall short of full unanimous approval of its complete 21st Russia sanctions package (including the maritime services ban) at or around its 13 July foreign ministers' meeting, even if a narrower price-cap-only measure is pushed through separately to beat the 15 July automatic revision deadline. | Illicit Trade / Econ SecurityEuropeEuropean UnionRussiaBulgaria | No. 13 · 13 Jul 26 | 16 Jul 26 | Very likely 80%55% → 80% 14 Jul 26 | Hit |
| 1 | Houthi threats against Saudi airports and shipping will stay rhetorical through the close of Khamenei's funeral period (around July 9), with no actual strike on Saudi soil or vessels in that window. | National SecurityAfrica / Middle EastIranSaudi ArabiaYemen | No. 4 · 4 Jul 26 | 10 Jul 26 | Likely 65% | Hit |
